shepherd's Blog

CFB is a season of Phases!

By shepherd | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 11:07 AM   6 comments

CFB Season breakdown:

Phase 1 (Wks 1-3): easy pickins... lines aren't established yet, so they are soft... favorites dominate... i always kill these weeks...

Phase 2 (Wks 4-7): books and public catch up... good spot to find big upsets... dogs rule... this is my achilles heal in CFB... grind it out and avoid disasters...

Phase 3 (Wks 8-13): YES! thank GOD phase 2 is over! the first 2 months show us who's really who... now we know who to bet on, who to bet against... bet on the perennial powers and new elites when laying short lines... find live dogs against over-rated teams... look for the top 2-3 to have bullseyes on their backs... the public and books fall behind again, because they fail to correlate opponents... but not me! back on track...

Phase 4 (Wks 13-15): rivalries take center stage... weather becomes a big factor... gotta pick your spots here... all about line value... same rules apply from Phase 3, but books and public are caught up again, so this requires very precise handicapping... knowing your CFB history (rivalries, trends) is key! i do well, but proceed cautiously...

Phase 5 (Bowl Season): this is what it's all about... everything you've learned the entire season must now be applied... lots of great overs early on (up through Dec. 28)... for me, Phases 2-4 are just waypoints between Phase 1 and 5... build your bankroll in Phase 1... supplement it with good discipline in Phase 2-4, while doing your homework... and use that bankroll and what you've learned to make your real money in Phase 5...

6 comments
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gwjtf says:
10/13/08 12:26PM
Great analysis Shep. If you want, I'll try to post your picks on a 'shepherd' thread tho it may get me banned from posting, but I don't give a sh!t because I don't post much anyway and I'm not here to post - I'm here to learn and you're one of the, if not 'the', best source of info to learn from re: handicapping. Thanks for continuing to post on your space.

gwjtf

mkan20 says:
10/16/08 12:16AM
nice break down. i never thought of it like that before, but looking at my betting and winning trends, i can def see which phases paid off for me.
JEG53 says:
10/16/08 03:16PM
I see that you have TCU pending,Does that mean you havnt put anything on it yet?

And if not any thoughts on this game,thanks in advance if you responce.

RedSoxFanFiver says:
10/22/08 10:13PM
Shep, just want to say thanks for the picks. Love the analysis. You going to move Central Michigan up to a best bet? I think that might be the best bet of the weekend. Toledo still getting too much love for the Michigan win.
Viva says:
10/23/08 11:35PM
Hey Shep...huge thanks for the picks...love Troy this weekend. Also love Nevada & Tulsa.....just huge offensive differences in both. Any thoughts on Cincy Bearcats.....with Pike back their offense should be more vertical....going up a struggling uconn team....any thoughts
lobosrule says:
10/26/08 05:44AM
glad i stayed off of Nevada... had a strange feeling... Nevada has been inconsistent, and Hawaii is a different team at home sometimes... cincy game surprised me a bit... CMich! don't even want to talk about it...
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