shepherd's Blog

Week 11 CFB Write-ups!

By shepherd | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, November 05, 2008 02:52 PM   29 comments

Bounce-back game of the week: Georgia (-9.5)

In honor of my goal to get a bounce-back win this week, i'm going with a team that shares the same goal.  The Dawgs got smacked around last week (like i believe i said they would), and they aren't looking like a pretty favorite this week on the road in the SEC.  But Kentucky is really beat up.  They have issues on both sides of the ball, and are set up to be a punching bag the rest of the way.  We already saw what Florida did to them... Georgia won't match it, but they still have some serious talent on offense and should be able to take out some frustrations on a youthful and banged up defense...

Georgia 38-17

 

Big 10 game of the week: Penn St (-7)

As i look at what these teams have done, i am surprised that some people are calling for a possible upset in this one.  What i see from Penn St is very impressive... prior to beating Ohio St, they had beaten their 7 Div 1 opponents by an average score of 42-12, with the closest being a 14 win at Purdue... What i see from Iowa is not that impressive...  They have blowout wins over Wisconsin, Illinois and Fla Int, a close win over Iowa St (yuck!), and close losses to Pitt, NW, Mich St and Illinois... The toughest game Iowa had to play this year was a 13-16 loss at Michigan St. The toughest game Penn St had to play this year was a 13-6 win at Ohio St. Ohio St beat Mich St 45-7 at Mich St.  Now i don't think any of those scores fail to reflect the power structure of the teams.  Penn St is the best team in the Big 10, and Mich St is the 3rd best... and the gap between Ohio St (at #2) and Mich St (at #3) is a massive one... Iowa falls around #4 or #5 on the Big 10 ladder... They can keep a game close if they can make it a garbage game... but that requires two key things... 1) they must be able to run the ball very effectively, despite their inability to throw it, and 2) they can't fall behind by 2 scores... you might say it requires a 3rd thing: a weak opponent... Penn St is not!  They will be geared to stop the run, forcing Stanzi to throw the ball more than the Hawkeyes want him to... and once Penn St gets a couple of scores on the board, Iowa will be hard pressed not to abandon their only offensive weapon and further the damage by going to the air... i doubt Iowa can score more than 17... but i see something more like...

Penn St 34-10

 

WAC game of the week:  SJ St (-6.5)

Let's see if i can get a rebound with my WAC game of the week and SJ St at once (both losers on my board last week)... SJ St needs one win to have a shot at a bowl game, and 2 wins to virtually ensure it.  They know they need this one, as La Tech is a flailing team this year.  La Tech's win against Fresno St means little... it's a long trip for Fresno, and they are a team in complete disarray.  Even Utah St and Hawaii beat them.  I expect Nevada will, too... but this is a write-up on SJ St!  They want to finish off 3-0 (or at worst 2-1) to secure a nice bowl game, and La Tech is 0-4 on the road this year, with the closest game being a 7 point loss to Army.  SJ St is 3-1 at home, with their only loss coming to Boise St.  The Spartans defense (despite their lackluster 4th quarter performance last week) has been solid, and the Bulldogs defense has not.  Regardless of the QB status of Reed (since Myles is just as good), i think SJ St will have an easy time with La Tech at home...

SJ St 38-21

29 comments
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rooster342 says:
11/05/08 03:20PM
Shepherd, what's your myspace?
rooster342 says:
11/05/08 03:28PM
Where do you post the rest of your play?
rooster342 says:
11/05/08 03:40PM
Got it. Thanks GL this week
ksp47 says:
11/05/08 06:36PM
Shepherd, great work, as usual. I see you're staying away from the KU-Neb game. I know this is a revenge game for Nebraska, but I'm surprised the line is moving 4 pts in Neb's favor. This looked good to me at KU -3. Do you see something that I don't? Thanks for all of the insight.
jwheels86 says:
11/05/08 11:31PM
Im not so sure on who to go big this week..
phancard says:
11/06/08 02:05AM
Like the Penn St and San Jose St bet shep. If I may add TCU -2m V Tech -3 and W Michigan +7.5 .. BOL man
jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 02:35AM
Im liking TCU right now.. the Denver Cleveland game is a little wierd.
phancard says:
11/06/08 04:37AM
Shep you and I think alike bro. I couldn't agree with you more on everthing you said above. ULL-9 and Cal +21 and Bama -3. I am with you on all of the high spread games also. One disagreement is the TCU game. I feel like TCU have the edge on Defense and Offense this year. I hope there is no conspiracies theory though.
cadberry says:
11/06/08 12:27PM
For now.....my plays this week.....

Penn St. -7 hook, Rice -10 hook, San Jose St. -6.5 hook, Arkansas +11.5, Houston -16

small plays

Boise St. -35, Arizonia -41, OU -28,Mizzu -27

I like your favorite's as you can see......anyway these are my pics for this week......i might add on something small for tonight.....thinking of clev, tcu, and or V tech.....

anyway.....good write-ups as usual. GL this weekend........

jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 04:41PM
Im not sure which one i want to take with the va tech. I like them and the under, but I might just want to take one.

I might still bite on TCU for tonight, and like the over in the Cleveland game.

Im gonna do a 3 team 10 pointer with Cleveland +7, TCU +8.5, VT +7.. Hopefully this one can lock and load.

jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 07:08PM
Need another night like last night..

BOL buddies

ksp47 says:
11/06/08 08:37PM
Looks good Jwheels. GL!
ksp47 says:
11/06/08 10:41PM
I'm taking KU BIG. This game looks alot like the TT-KU game a few weeks ago where everyone was on KU. I couldn't understand the line, they were giving the better team the pts. I don't expect 76-39 like last year, but certainly something like the MO-Neb score.
jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 11:32PM
Won some good money tonight..

TCU literally just choked and kept me from doubling my money, way to go place kicker.Shep I believe that conspiracy.

jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 11:33PM
That was just too weird the entire game, that kind of football is sickening to watch.
jwheels86 says:
11/06/08 11:49PM
TCU pretty much choked. I mean anyone that had Utah had to been barely watching inside 5 minutes with TCU just having the ball twice driving in Utah territory. If they even score at all they dont lose. Thats just pretty choky football to say the least. It kept me from having a perfect night again, just like one game kept me from it last night. Cant complain when you win money though I guess, but fuck.
jwheels86 says:
11/07/08 06:19AM
I just hope they dont waste peoples time and let them get an at large if they happened to go unscathed.
jwheels86 says:
11/07/08 05:42PM
exactly, just like Hawaii and UGA..

Im trying to decide on Nevada tonight or might just tease the number to +8 and 64

benjaminparker says:
11/07/08 08:55PM
I think the line should be Nevada giving. I think you will see Nevada running (or passing) up and down the field. Fresno State appears to be a team that has given up on the season. Ever since they played Hawaii and looked quite ordinary, they haven't shown much. They haven't covered a spread in awhile. Even on this game, when the money started coming in, the line flip-flopped and now Nevada is favored, as I thought they should be. I believe Nevada may win by at least 10, but should cover anyway. I like reading your thoughts on games. Mahalo.
ksp47 says:
11/08/08 12:08AM
Ore.St should be $ this week.
jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 01:40PM
Im gonna hit Boise state first half, I added Ohio State last minute and teased it to -5, and over 35.5.. Looks about good at the half, still waiting on UGA to run their offense again.
jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 11:35PM
not a great day, wow PSU..
jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 05:09AM
Im gonna go with penn state, Georgia in a 6 pointer and over, with a teaser of Oregon, Az State and Cincinatti at ten points each. Those are my big this week

I got plays on Bama, Oregon State, ULL, Ok. State and SJ state as well.

Also another ten point teaser with ULL -.5, Penn State +2.5, SJ State +3..

jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 05:39AM
What is the first half line for Boise State anyone? I dont have any totals right now for Saturday.. Been eating totals up in NBA

Im looking for some good first half lines for games today. Ball State was a good one on tuesday.

jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 05:39AM
or wednesday, whenever the hell they played.
jwheels86 says:
11/09/08 03:12PM
I havent even had close to as many good days in college football this year as the NFL..

Hopefully later on I can keep the winning going in the NFL. I went with the patriots for some reason and its paying off right now. Eagles hopefully keep playing great.

jwheels86 says:
11/09/08 04:07PM
Im winning more in basketball than football, thats pretty sad.
jwheels86 says:
11/08/08 01:20AM
I won the teaser with Nevada..

Im still trying to figure who to put big on tomm.

tnoelmlb says:
11/09/08 08:30AM
Any thought on NFL Today? I like miami, jags, saints, and the colts. Let me know what you guys think about these plays. Hope everyone kicks ass today. Good Luck.
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