Ok, before i get into my Bowl Season picks and write-ups, here are some tips for handicapping Bowl Season.
1) Offenses prevail: there are a number of reason it plays out this way... first, the games are played in warm weather sites (and domes)... totals progressively drop at the end of the CFB season due to bad weather, and bettors tend to hang on to the most recent results... this creates some value in the Overs... second, because the matchups involve teams from different conferences, they are usually unfamiliar with one another... this provides schematic advantages for the offenses... third, it's Bowl Season! this means teams play loose... the pressure of conference titles and national championship races are gone, and the only thing to play for is this last game... players are happy to be where they are, and often get caught up in all of the hoopla... psychologically, this favors the offenses... lastly, the teams that get into the bowls are the teams that were succesful offensively during the season, meaning frequent matchups between offensive juggernauts... look for games where plenty of angles favor the offenses and bet the over... some games to consider: Ok St/Oregon, Rutgers/NC St, Boise/TCU, LSU/Ga Tech, Tulsa/Ball St, OU/Fla, Tx Tech/Ol Miss...
2) QBs Rule: this has been a very useful angle for me over the years... probably has something to do with #1 above... QB play is essential in bowl games... it is rare that a team with a struggling QB finds itself on the winning side against a team with a QB that has been playing well... teams are looking to put points on the board, and a team that is one-dimensional is unlikely to do well, particularly because Bowl teams are more likely to have stronger defensive play... be careful putting your money on a team that built up several wins during the season running for 300+ yards against weak opponents, but couldn't put together wins against solid defensive teams for their failure to more the ball through the air when the running game struggled... also, keep an eye on teams with solid senior QBs playing in their last game before hitting the Pros... some QB mismatches to consider: Georgia/Mich St, GTech/LSU, VT/Cincy, Fl St/Wisc, Rutgers/NC St, Ok St/Oregon (among others)...
3) Small favorites: as you may have noticed, finding easy winners down the stretch of the season became more and more difficult as lines became inflated to adjust to early results... a big reason for this is because more samples allow the books to create sharper and sharper lines... the big culprit is conference play... as teams within a conference play each other it gets easier and easier to gauge where they all fall in the rankings (i.e. Fla, Bama, UGA, Miss, LSU, etc.)... hence, you get fewer small favorites to take advantage of down the regular season stretch run... however, that turns back around in Bowl Season... once again, oddsmakers (and the public/sharps) are stuck trying to measure teams against one another without a solid basis for comparison... basically, you're getting a #2 team from one conference against a #3 team from another conference, and neither team is going be a heavy favorite because both teams have a solid backing of bettors due to their success during the season... you will almost never see a team favored by more than 14, and almost all games have a spread of 7 or less... the reason this provides favorable betting value is because, Bowl season is no different than the regular season... most of the games still end up being blowouts, just like in the regular season... but now, a favorite that wins will almost always cover... so, as a general rule, if you can pick the winner straight up, you are going to pick the winner ATS... you will be amazed at the % of teams that win SU and cover ATS... very few backdoor covers, especially in the short spread games...
4) Coaching: with a full month to prepare, the coaching advantage becomes even more exemplified... certain teams are perennial bowl winners because they have coaches who know how to bring a successful gameplan... if you can find a coaching mismatch in a game that also has other favorable angles, this can be a very useful tool... notable games with a favorable coaching matchup: GT/LSU, VT/Cincy, Ore St/Pitt, Boise/TCU (Boise does NOT lose Bowl games)...
5) Conference matchups: analyze the conferences... ACCURATELY! don't just go based on myth... conference strength changes from year to year... this is important because teams that have run the gauntlet through a brutal conference schedule will find the going easy come Bowl season... a tough conference schedule builds toughness (mentally and physically)... a team that may look weaker due to their record may actually be stronger when evaluated in light of their conference, creating favorable pointspreads... this year, Big 12 was head and shoulders above the rest, while the ACC proved to be the deepest conference in football... the SEC dropped off from previous years... the Pac 10 was decent, although the bottom half was attrocious, the Big 10 was slightly more competitive than recent years, but still not very strong, and the Big East was flat out weak! the MWC was surprisingly strong, while other non-BCS conferences were a notch (or two) below the competition... notably favorable conf matchups: UConn/Buffalo, VT/Cincy, Cal/Miami, UGA/Mich St, Tex/Ohio St (among others)...
if you can find games that involve several favorable angles from this list, you will generally be on the winning side... it is best if you can find the qualifying sides and totals and get them early... these lines will change (sometimes dramatically) as they get closer to kickoff... try to gauge the early line movement so you don't miss the bus on some of the best matchups (i.e. Georgia/Mich St), and lock in your main plays early on for these games... most games will hold fairly steady in line movement, so you can hold off on these ones until they get closer to the game... needless to say, unexpected injuries can effect the lines, as well as your handicapping, so pay attention to the news... hopefully, these should be minimal at this time of year...
will get on some write-ups before too long... happy holidays folks! hopefully Bowl Season will prove to be the gift that keeps on giving...