Here we go... it's my favorite time of the year... Bowl Season! These are my best bets:
CFB Game of the Year (Citrus Bowl): Georgia (-7)
This one is all about matchups! The first matchup is an SEC team playing against a Big 10 team. I have not been big on Georgia this year (other than betting against them, for the most part), but this will be their time to shine. The SEC has dominated the Big 10 in major bowl games over recent years, and this is the best matchup pitting these two conferences this year. The second matchup is the one-dimensional Spartans offense against what has been an underachieving Bulldogs defense. Despite the fact that UGA didn't live up to the hype, they are still good enough to tee off on the vanilla style offense that MSU brings to the table. We saw two games this year where Mich St faced a defense that could shut down their running game, forcing them into 3rd and long situations where Hoyer had to try to bail them out (Ohio St and Penn St). Those games exposed the achilles heal of the Mich St offense (throwing the ball), and Georgia is a prime candidate to take advantage of this same weakness. The third matchup is the QBs. I always look for QB mismatches during bowl season. Teams with a solid QB excel over teams that struggle with their QB play. The matchup between Stafford and Hoyer is the most lopsided QB matchup available this season. Stafford is a legit (possibly #1 pick) NFL prospect, playing in his final game as a Bulldog. Hoyer is, pure and simple, weak. Georgia comes in with a pro-style offense that is very difficult to stop. You can't focus on the passing game or the running game, meaning the defense is always on its heals. And the Mich St defense has not done well against teams with a balanced offense (see PSU). This game just has too many matchup problems for MSU, and if (and when) they fall behind, and are forced to stray from their running game, it will get ugly fast. They will have a much greater following, since this is SEC country, and MSU is a long way from home, so expect the Bulldogs to feed off of that and get the big win!
UGA 45-17
Motor City Bowl: CMich (-6.5)
Nice little home game for the Chippewas to finish off Dan Lefevour's illustrious career. Will be a sad day for those who have watched him over the years, and even sadder for those who won money by riding their bandwagon (moreso last two years than this year). Fla Atl is one of the few (only?) team from down South that will be far from home this bowl season, playing against a Northern based team playing in their backyard. More importantly, CMich is quite a bit better than FAU, having played a much tougher schedule to get here. Fla Atl found its way into a bowl game with a shoddy 6-6 record playing in the weakest Div 1 conference in the country (Sun Belt). Despite a somewhat disappointing year for CMU, they are still the better team, and more battle tested, relatively speaking. I expect Lefevour to bring a great game on his final appearance in front of the home fans, and post some gaudy numbers in a high scoring game!
CMU 52-38
Chic-Fil-A Bowl: Ga Tech (-3.5)
I really like this matchup! First, it pits the best team in the ACC (despite the fact they didn't win the championship) against a middle of the pack SEC that was arguably the most disappointing team in CFB this year. And this is important, because the ACC has quietly played outstanding football this year, while the SEC was a shell of what we've seen in past years. Yes, Alabama and Florida are both dominant teams, but behind them the competition was subpar at best, while the ACC was the deepest conference in all of football. Ga Tech put a hurting on Georgia with their triple-option, and UGA is a much better team than LSU (as indicated by their 52-38 smackdown at LSU). One of my favorite mismatches in this game is on the coaching front. Les Miles detractors have been calling him out for the past two years for making horrible decisions, but nobody listened because those decisions somehow worked out for him. This year, with a less talented team, those detractors have had the chance to sit back, laugh, and say "I told ya so." This team plays about as stupidly as any team I have ever watched in CFB. Meanwhile, coach of the year Paul Johnson has quietly put together an amazing season, with an option attack that has become very difficult to stop. One of the more favorable matchups in this game is the LSU QB (Lee, Jeffereson?) going up against a very underrated GT defense. LSU hasn't been able to get quality play out of their QBs all year, and I expect a swarm of Yellow Jackets putting pressure on them and forcing mistakes all game long. Most of all, I don't think you will see LSU stop the Ga Tech offense much this game. Once GT gets out to a lead I expect to see a lot of points scored in this game!
GT 44-31
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (+2)
This is probably the bowl game with the most angles pointing in its favor. For starters, we have a Va Tech team that got here by playing one of the toughest schedules of any team in CFB (SOS rank: #11), going against a Cincy squad that rode one of the easiest schedules of any Div 1 team (SOS rank: #60). The ACC, as stated before, played outstanding football this year, while the Big East was, to put it mildly, a complete joke! I will take advantage of the misperception here, as people look at an 11-2 team playing a 9-4 team and don't realize which team is better. Here is a quick breakdown of the two conferences and how they performed out of conference, using only the teams that will be playing in bowl games: ACC most impressive wins (UGA 45-42, Miss 30-28, Cal 35-27)... Big East most impressive wins (Iowa 21-20, Kansas 37-34, Hawaii 29-24); ACC worst losses (MTSU 14-24, ECU 22-27)... Big East worst losses (BG 17-27, Fresno 7-24, ECU 3-24); head-to-head records (ACC 2-1 over Big East); overall non-conference records (ACC: 14-8, Big East: 9-9); how they fared against all other Div 1 conferences (ACC: 10-5; Big East: 5-4). The most impressive non-conference win by the Hokies was a 35-30 win at Nebraska that was 28-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. The most impressive non-conference win registered by Cincy was a 29-24 win at Hawaii in which they trailed by 14 in the 4th quarter. I just don't think Cincy is battle tested at all, as opposed to Va Tech who has played a number of solid opponents and fared well in most. Beamer has great success in bowl games, and Va Tech has flown under the radar due to their struggles at the start of the year, when Taylor was not playing originally, and then both Taylor and Glennon fought through injuries. This team is peaking at the best time, and playing great defense, and Pike is NOT a solid QB. I expect Cincy to be basically happy to be in their first BCS game, while Va Tech is here to win! Wrong team favored, boys!
VT 28-17
Total of the year: Rutgers/NC St Over 51
This looks like a gift. Blindly betting overs may not be the way to go in bowl season, but finding the right spots will yield some amazing value for high scoring games. This one pits two of the hottest offenses in the country down the stretch, and two of the hottest QBs. Neither team will be able to stop the other's aerial assaults. Something to watch for is future NFL star Kenny Britt, WR for Rutgers and one of the best kept secrets in CFB. Don't be surprised if the winning team in this game covers the over by themselves. Shootout!
RU 48 NCSt 44
Other great totals opportunities:
Ball St/Tulsa Ov 77
LSU/GT Ov 49
Boise/TCU Ov 45
Ok St/Ore Ov 77
Tx Tech/Miss Ov 70.5
USC/Penn St Un 45.5
Alabama/Utah Un 45.5
Fla/OU Ov 71.5
GL to everyone, Happy Holidays, and here's hoping the Bowl Season yields many gift-giving opportunites!