Posted Friday, October 07, 2011 01:54 PM
YTD ATS: 11-7-1, +8.90 UNITSMEDIUM PLAYS (**): 5-1
LARGE PLAYS (***): 1-0
1-1 yesterday, +.85 unit. Hit my 2 unit play on WKU but lost Oregon 1H.
FRESNO STATE TT OVER 17.5 (-135)***I know this is a lot of juice... but this is only the third time since 1985 that Fresno has been DD home dogs, let alone by 20+ points. In those games they are averaging 31 ppg. I know it doesn't mean much considering the sample size but it does tell me that these guys will fight at home, especially when they are the dogs. Those familiar with this rivalry know that in 2001 BSU came in and upset Fresno at home, who then went on to lose to Hawaii the week after, killing their chance at a BCS bound season. David Carr was the QB that year and now his brother is backing this current team. Fresno has two major injuries to their secondary, in Phillip Thomas and Derron Smith and Boise has lost their top CB Gavins for the year. I think there will be some points thrown up on the board tonight... and I think Fresno will have every opportunity to try and cash in on that. FYI, last week against Ole Miss, they had half their starting o-line missing who are all back for this game. There is no way FSU gets shut out at home, and I think 17.5 is a very reachable number. In my capping, I see this as at least a TD short.
...
[More]
Posted Thursday, October 06, 2011 12:29 AM
YTD ATS: 10-6-1, +8.05 UNITSMEDIUM PLAYS (**): 4-1
LARGE PLAYS (***): 1-0
WKU +11.5**
These WKU seniors have yet to beat Middle Tenn so far in their college careers and I'm guessing that it'll be on their minds tonight. This is an experienced group with 17 starters back from last season (7 O, 8 D) compared to the Blue Raiders who only have 3 starters returning on defense and a new QB (albeit a talented one in Kilgore) Rainey is a beast at RB... he carried the ball 45 times in last years matchup against MTSU. WKU has covered every game in which they've had the rushing edge and I think that trend continues here... MTSU's lack of experience on defense shows as they are #112 in the nation in rushing yards allowed/gm and #112 in total yards allowed/gm.
Looking at the Oregon game still...