special__k's Blog

K'S NCAAF FRI 10/7

By special__k | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 07, 2011 01:54 PM   14 comments
YTD ATS: 11-7-1, +8.90 UNITS
MEDIUM PLAYS (**): 5-1
LARGE PLAYS (***): 1-0

1-1 yesterday, +.85 unit. Hit my 2 unit play on WKU but lost Oregon 1H.

FRESNO STATE TT OVER 17.5 (-135)***
I know this is a lot of juice... but this is only the third time since 1985 that Fresno has been DD home dogs, let alone by 20+ points. In those games they are averaging 31 ppg. I know it doesn't mean much considering the sample size but it does tell me that these guys will fight at home, especially when they are the dogs. Those familiar with this rivalry know that in 2001 BSU came in and upset Fresno at home, who then went on to lose to Hawaii the week after, killing their chance at a BCS bound season. David Carr was the QB that year and now his brother is backing this current team. Fresno has two major injuries to their secondary, in Phillip Thomas  and Derron Smith and Boise has lost their top CB Gavins for the year. I think there will be some points thrown up on the board tonight... and I think Fresno will have every opportunity to try and cash in on that. FYI, last week against Ole Miss, they had half their starting o-line missing who are all back for this game. There is no way FSU gets shut out at home, and I think 17.5 is a very reachable number. In my capping, I see this as at least a TD short.

14 comments
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Teaser78 says:
10/07/11 01:58PM
gl
SaiGonVN1982 says:
10/07/11 02:01PM
 GL K... Congratulation on WKU last Night.. Beside the Fresno st. TT OVER, do you like any side ??? I like Fresno St. tonight... Anyway, best of luck bro 
Jose_Reyes says:
10/07/11 02:02PM
Good luck tonight and this week K     
special__k says:
10/07/11 02:10PM

A lot of reasons for me to like Fresno but with their injuries in the secondary, Boise's dominance on both sides of the line, and Kellen Moore looking to redeem himself after a poor showing last week, I see Fresno chasing Boise all night. That's why I didn't play the side. 
SportsFreak69 says:
10/07/11 02:33PM

Best of Luck

wolfeman3 says:
10/07/11 03:15PM
Good number...I'm at 19. :(

Good luck, nice run! 
special__k says:
10/07/11 03:30PM

Thx buddy
SaiGonVN1982 says:
10/07/11 03:40PM
Thanks K.  However, i still like Fresno St tonight... GL with your picks this weekend K 
plumcrazy66 says:
10/07/11 03:50PM

man i have over under at 29 would u go under

 

special__k says:
10/07/11 04:20PM

29? For Fresno? Or is that a first half line?
plumcrazy66 says:
10/07/11 04:37PM
For fresno 4 the game never mind,  bodog was a misprint and came back and changed it thanks should have jumped on it big
badlands says:
10/07/11 05:23PM
42-20 works for me bud
special__k says:
10/07/11 06:41PM

I'll call it in 
CalBear says:
10/07/11 07:04PM
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User: special__k
Joined: December 2007
Location: California
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation: Arts/Entertainment

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