stafford311's Blog

My best 8 from early NCAA week 9 lines

By stafford311 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 22, 2012 01:49 AM   13 comments
This is my first post on this site. I am no expert. I'm either hot or cold usually. I do plenty of independent research and read college football blogs throughout the week while following where the money is going with my lines. Here are the lines I am following for this upcoming weekend. I excel on straight wagers. I stand the best chance to be profitable on straight plays and will be avoiding teasers, ifs, and parlays. 

Of these 8 plays all 8 covered the spread in their last game...

1) Northwestern - 6.5 over Iowa...NW 7-1 ATS, 4-1 last 5; Iowa 2-4-1

2) Duke +27.5 at Florida State...Duke 6-2 ATS; FSU 3-4

3) Miss St +23.5 at Alabama...Miss St 5-2 ATS 3-0 last 3; Bama 4-     3 ATS 2-2 last 4

4) Wisconsin -6.5 over Michigan State...ATS last 4 Wisc 4-0; ATS       last 4 MSU 1-3

5) NC State +8 at UNC...head to head NC St has covered 5 straight;     UNC favored 7.5-10.5 last 2 is 0-2 ATS

6) Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State...PSU 5-0 last 5 ATS; OSU 0-2       last 2 ATS

7) Mississippi +5.5 at Arkansas...Ole Miss 4-0 last 4 ATS 6-1             season; Ark 2-5 season ATS

8) Oklahoma -10 over Notre Dame...OU 3-0 last 3 ATS, Notre Dame     0-2 last 2 ATS

Hopefully these hold up. Please leave your opinions or tell me where your focus is based off of what your seeing with the early lines,

13 comments
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RexR says:
10/22/12 02:35AM
I like all of those B10 games, I'd lean on all and prob bet on 1 or 2 of them. They're probably pretty public but Northwestern has not been given much respect from books and has been cleaning up ATS. I don't follow Big East that much. 

As for Bama. They've been looking tough on the road, they're due for a slip-up at home (1-3 ATS at home vs 3-0 away).

I like Sooners to cover 7 or 8, not sure about double digits. 

BOL
Prof_Chaos says:
10/22/12 02:36AM
I have a rule: I never bet against Alabama no matter what. Also don't like betting against FSU at home. 

I'm staying away from the Arkansas game and the Penn st game.

I'm with you on Wisky, NW, NC st, and Oklahoma. 

I think OU crushes ND.
stafford311 says:
10/22/12 03:17AM
@rexr  - I agree the big east is a weird one to figure out. Ohio State and Iowa have key injuries to their best offensive player and Wisconsin has 2 backs rushing it up and down the field.  As for Bama, I really believe in this MSU team to fight to the end in Tuscaloosa. They have it all clicking right now. Solid qb play, strong back play, and receivers stepping up and moving the sticks. Also, I watched Bama struggle with Ole Miss, in the second half in their last home conference game which was also a late night game. ND has just looked awful on offense. OU has been able to do what they want on offense, obviously against weaker defenses then ND's but the confidence is with the Sooners right now.

@prof - Ole Miss, Duke, and Penn State are all having seasons no one could have seen coming back in camp. What they are doing is great for those campuses and their conferences. The way Ole Miss rebounded in getting that bowl eligible win at home over NC after blowing the 20 point lead at VA Tech gives me confidence they can stay in it at FSU and keep it closer then the experts think. Ole Miss just keeps on exceeding expectations. The way they handled Auburn at home proved they are no longer the doormat of the conference. That win came after the fg loss to Texas A@M(30-27) and prior to the A@M cover was the cover at Alabama. Thats 3 straight conference covers for the Rebels. They must beat Arkansas to keep the program moving forward. This is a good shot at a money line dog! The Rebs have been well coached and received excellent play from their qb. We all know Arkansas's program is a mess. The Penn State game is a tremendous spot for the program in a nationally televised 5:30pm est slot to play football on ESPN and not discuss the events of the past. Five straight wins and covers is impressive. The Buckeyes must deal with the loss of Miller. Penn State is favored at home due to the tremendous defense that the Nittany Lions are playing. Ohio State in their last road game, gave up 49 points to Indiana. Defense still wins some games!
stafford311 says:
10/22/12 03:20AM
***Correction - In paragraph 2, sentence 3, I am referring to Duke's bowl eligible win over UNC and not Ole Miss***
Prof_Chaos says:
10/22/12 03:29AM
Nice write ups. You sold me on Penn St. 

Will wait and see how the line moves before I bet it. 

Arkansas isn't as bad as people think. They need this win to keep bowl hopes alive. But you could say the same about Ole Miss. I want no part of that game.


stafford311 says:
10/22/12 03:46AM
@Prof - GL w Penn State. 

I agree with you on Arkansas now that I did a little homework. I didn't realize the  Razorback defense held their last 2 SEC opponents to 7 points. Thats big considering how poor they were prior to those statements.They scored 49 points 2 weeks ago before a lightning strike called the game in mid 3rd quarter. That is a lot of points. Then they had a bye week last week and are home for the Rebels. I'm laying off the Ole Miss play. Down to 7 lines I will be following. Thanks!
andremac25 says:
10/23/12 01:01AM
Great stuff Stafford

BOL

masjes says:
10/23/12 07:07PM
I agree I like what your saying
juggernat says:
10/24/12 05:40AM
WE ARE!!!

I love your thinking stafford..Defense wins on the east coast.."I love the PSU play"

Kelly_Slater says:
10/24/12 09:14PM
Stafford jc penny mens briefs

Your very first post is a Blog?!

Sure big guy <

stafford311 says:
10/24/12 10:39PM
@kelly - I don't know what you mean. Are you upset with my picks I'm offering up? If your post is about something else please explain what it means.

How many posts does one need in your mind to become a qualified blogger?

Zook says:
10/25/12 10:01PM
Oklahoma has been looking forward to this game all year. They play very well at home and will cover with ease. There defense is as good or not better than ND and there offense is way better. Landry Jones will pick ND apart. Will win by at least 17

.

I never bet against Alabama.

2ndHalfChas says:
10/27/12 02:17AM
5 of the 8 show up on this week's trends

Makes sense since you mentioned that they all covered last week

It's so true that, although you can really bang your book hard when you hit a few parlays, straight bets are the key to good money management

Great job & good luck

Have a profitable week

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User: stafford311
Joined: October 2012
Location: New Jersey
Team: Georgia Bulldogs
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

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