stevenp's Blog

miami-dallas is miami really 4.5 points better?

By stevenp | View all Posts
Posted Friday, December 23, 2011 01:34 PM   20 comments
Dallas versus Miami.  Is Miami really 4.5 points better.  

Last year Dallas beat Miami six out of eight times straight up.  Dallas played Miami four times at home and went 3-1 straight up.   The lone loss at home was by two points.

Offseason moves.  Dallas lost Chandler who significantly prevented Miami penetration.  And Dallas lost Barea-- a scorer who could create offense on his own.  Caron Butler’s was a regular season loss.  In an odd way, they replace Chandler’s quality (though not his defense) with Lamar Odom.  They replace Barea with a wheelchair bound Vince Carter.  Simply, Carter is washed up.  But Mark Cuban’s a genius billionaire.  Maybe he knows something.  I doubt it.  Butler was essentially replaced last year by a rejuvenated Shawn Marion-- a player Dallas figured out how to use.  He plays best with a  playmaking point guard, Nash and Kidd.

What about Miami?

They didn’t really lose anything; and their greatest gain besides Shane Battier is a healthy Udanis Haslem.  Miami still is weak at point guard.  Chalmers backup, rookie Cleveland State’s Norris Coles, could be a huge difference maker if he lives up to potential (how he played in the preseason).

So really this game boils down to what differnce does the loss of Chandler and Barea make with Miami’s increased inside pressence with Haslem.  Plus, REVENGE FACTOR.  The whole world is all over Miami.  And the motivation could be real.  But is Dallas really deserving of the huge 4.5 point home dog?  That’s a line that’s moved four points.
20 comments
comment Post A Comment
thorpe says:
12/23/11 01:47PM
Mavs also lost Dehsaun Stevenson who was one of their better defenders against James.


stevenp says:
12/23/11 02:02PM
i think i was in denial about that.
kaponofor3 says:
12/23/11 02:10PM
The more I look at this game, the more I like MIA. DAL is having to throw together a LOT of good pieces. If DAL's crunch time five at the end of the game is now Nowitzki-Odom-Marion-Kidd-Terry (have to imagine that's it)... who the hell is stopping Wade and LeBron from getting to the rim at will? How many FTs will these guys take on the first night back in a super revenge situation?

thatsagoodone says:
12/23/11 03:07PM
I'll be on miami
thatsagoodone says:
12/23/11 03:29PM
I'm tempted to lay the 4.5 but I think the public will not be able to resist the points and maybe it'll go down to 4 or 3.5
stevenp says:
12/23/11 08:42PM
so the response i hear is that most people like miami.    something fishy here, to me.  but we'll see.  i'm laying off it; my lean is dallas.
tito40 says:
12/23/11 08:52PM


i'm thinking/hoping the same thing   
smartbets says:
12/23/11 11:22PM
this season...yes, miami is 4.5 pts better.
Quad_17 says:
12/24/11 12:09PM
If Miami is laying 4.5 points at Dallas they probably will be laying points every single time they take the court.
PLAYAAAA1969 says:
12/24/11 12:56PM


  Crazy Thought
thatsagoodone says:
12/24/11 02:45PM

Miami down to -4

I'm a buyer at that #

Support81 says:
12/24/11 08:10PM

 

Vinsanity ?

DannySatan says:
12/24/11 08:42PM
The fact that the entire world is betting on Miami is the only reason I'd pick Dallas to cover... otherwise, this game is basically unbettable for me.

That said, I like the over quite a bit in this one, and the reasoning is quite simple: at 188 and with the probability of a close game, do we really expect both teams to score under 95 points?  For one thing, both teams will come out eager to SHOOT, given the fact that they've had to wait so long to show off the skills they improved during the lockout.  And just from an X's 'n O's standpoint, the Chandler-for-Odom tradeoff represents a potential for higher-scoring games all season long for the Mavs...

Throw in the possibility of overtime, and the over seems like the only valuable bet for this game...
zig_zag says:
12/24/11 10:15PM

i disagree with that point because you have a vetern point guard in Jason Kidd that will control the pace of the game.   MIA will try to run, if dallas covers the game will be under, if Miami controls the pace it will be over (imo)

i hate to feel like the sucker but i think the year that miami has spent together relieves them of the fadeable team i saw them as at the begining of last year...

a player like wade with a chip on his shoulder vs a team that could still be "feeling" themselves over getting that trophy i have to lean Miami..

in both the miami/dallas and bulls/lakers i see the younger up & coming teams taking the throwns of these older has beens...

stevenp said it himself, this is a 26 year old league and although miami's 3 isn't 26 anymore they are certainly not 38 like dallas's point guard.  

Barea won dallas at least 10 games last year, and you can say Chandler maybe 15?    Am i wrong???  i gotta go with the public on this one, might pay to find out if im right.  
anthonyline says:
12/24/11 10:34PM
MIA IS GOOD TEAM BUT CANT BEAT CHAMPIONS IM GOING WITH DAL 99% 
Checkmate886 says:
12/25/11 03:27AM
im putting something on the heat to cover. the mavs got weaker defensively losing tyson. and who exactly is the mavs backup at center? hayward gets into any type of foul trouble its going to be open season on the lane with wade and bron. and the heat are going to want this game
stevenp says:
12/25/11 04:26AM
Been great getting so much incisive input.  This line is a challenge to the heat hype, to  what we referred last year as the heatles.  this game will be a small measuring stick whether miami is up to playing the better teams on the road.   I still believe that Miami's front office could be doing a better job at recruiting complementary pieces to this jaugernaut of potential energy.  Norris Coles could be an amazing step in the right direction.  Labron developing a postup game could also help.  But from what I saw in the preseason, 18 foot turnaround jumpers does not a post-up game make.  Little of his footwork in the post resembled Hakeem the dream.  the jet could be out; and that's probably the greatest asset for the loud shriek of miami backers.  I believe Miami's best chance of improving dramatically is better use of Chris Bosh.   Well, throw the ball up, we'll see, collect data, analyze it, test our theories and adjust accordingly.  here's to a great season with all of you!  merry christmas!
DannySatan says:
12/25/11 08:29AM
Reviving this thread from yesterday, does anybody know if Bodog offers prop bets on team over/unders (I haven't been a member long enough to bet NBA with them)?  Cuz with a game total of 188, and Miami getting 5, that would indicate that the Heat's o/u is 91.5 points... with no Chandler, I'd gladly take the over.
rangershomer says:
12/25/11 08:37AM

This.

 Mia/Chi ML parlay.

JonnyTwoTime says:
12/25/11 11:52AM
All they need to do is foul Lebron and it will be brick city at the line
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.