tallguyindc's Blog

Why I think the owners ultimately win the lockout

By tallguyindc | View all Posts
Posted Monday, February 14, 2011 04:43 AM   10 comments

Bottom line:

The players have far more to lose by missing games. 

The framework of this CBA will probably be the basis for the next one and the one after that etc.  In other words, they are really negotiating what players will be paid for the next 20 years. 

In essence, every lockout/strike situation is a game of chicken. Missing games is clearly bad for both sides but it will happen unless one side accepts an inferior situation. But how useful is it to actually win and get the right CBA for the next 20 years. 

A typical owner will look at this and say "I could cave now and save a year's worth of revenues or I could holdout and get a CBA that will pay dividends for the next 19 years."

A typical player will look at this and say "I could cave now and save a year's salary or I could holdout and get a CBA that really won't benefit me personally all that much.  My career is likely to be only a few years long.  Losing a year would cost me a huge percentage of my lifetime earnings.  Sure, "the players" would be getting benefits for the next 20 years if we hold out, but me personally....not really. 

I'd also point out that sports owners are typically only part time.  They have other real businesses.   Losing the NFL revenue for a year is like losing a pinky.  Unpleasant and uncomfortable but ultimately not  a real problem.  For a typical player who has no income or wealth outside of being a football star and only a couple years to maximize that revenue,  losing a year would be a much more serious injury.  I really don't see how the players don't ultimately blink first. 

10 comments
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vanwilder21 says:
02/14/11 09:52AM
jmw59 says:
02/14/11 10:05AM
A game of chicken that we "the fans" lose.
jmw59 says:
02/14/11 10:05AM
A game of chicken that we "the fans" lose.
ApacheM says:
02/14/11 10:50AM
 The OWNERS have "STRIKE" insurance.
houguy28 says:
02/14/11 11:10AM
Owners still get paid by the networks regardless of games being played.
tallguyindc says:
02/15/11 01:39AM

I'm pretty sure this is not true.  That would be a horrible deal for the networks.  I can't see why they'd ever agree to it.  The players wouldn't have let it happen either because it gives the owners way too much leverage.

The owners have more leverage here but not that much more.

tallguyindc says:
02/15/11 01:47AM

Okay.  I'm an idiot for talking before googling it.  The DirecTV deal does pay them if they don't air the games.  Its not the network money.  Its just the DirecTV money.  The owners would still be losing a great deal if there is no football since the DirecTV money is just 1/6 of the overall revenue.  Its still effectively lockout insurance. 

Sort of surprised DirecTV agreed to those terms.  Now we know who the real loser of a lockout would be.

Henry-Lilly says:
02/15/11 02:02AM



Directv gets fucked hard if there is a lockout?  Maybe a lockout isn't so bad after all.
onebadgolfer says:
02/15/11 08:04AM
The players hold more power than they think, but if you think about it realistically, who's better suited to make it through two/three/four weeks of missed games, an NFL owner or all those players who've been in the league for one or two years? A deal will get done and it might not be until Labor Day, but the outcome won't surprise anyone.
tallguyindc says:
02/15/11 02:52PM

There is one more factor that players should be wary of.

If it does go to a lockout, college football will take on an even greater level of importance.  Don't be surprised if say the SEC decides to reschedule games to be played on Sunday.   This will make the biggest college stars even bigger stars than before and will affect endorsement deals next year.  It will also affect who people want to see more once they come back.

It would be an extremely pyrhhic victory if players go without pay just long enough to enable their replacements to get really well compensated. 

 

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