tep's Blog

Posted Sunday, November 13, 2011 09:24 AM

How weather affects NFL games

Two disclaimers: This info is not my own. These numbers reflect 2001-2007 games (1800+ games). I would use as a guide.


Theory 1: NFL games held indoors have higher scores. FACT: True 
for domes, unclear for closed roofs.
Event
Games
PPG
All NFL Games
1,861
42.0
Dome Games
344
45.7
Closed Roof Games
44
42.1
Outdoor Games
1,473
41.4
Dome games clearly result in higher scoring over outdoor games by 10.4%. 
On the surface, closed roof games appear to also have a slight advantage 
over outdoor games by a small margin.

The two teams with closed roofs are Arizona and Houston. Scoring in both 
stadiums actually went up when the roofs were open. Thus, the results for 
closed roof games are inconclusive.

Theory 2: NFL games in cold or hot conditions have lower scores. 
FACT: Untrue.

There is no hard evidence of this.
Temperature
Games
PPG
<10
2
37.0
10-19
22
42.5
20-29
61
40.9
30-39
154
43.0
40-49
263
41.4
50-59
353
42.6
60-69
342
41.0
70-79
259
40.7
80-89
149
40.3
90-99
17
35.5
100+
4
43.5
We recommend that owners not be concerned with temperatures in NFL 
game weather forecasts.

Theory 3: Rain and snow cause NFL games to have lower scores. 
FACT: True.
NOTE: Above are for outdoor games 
only. Dome and Closed roof... [More]

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User: tep
Joined: January 2004
Location: United States
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