tep's Blog

How weather affects NFL games

By tep | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, November 13, 2011 09:24 AM   0 comments
Two disclaimers: This info is not my own. These numbers reflect 2001-2007 games (1800+ games). I would use as a guide.


Theory 1: NFL games held indoors have higher scores. FACT: True 
for domes, unclear for closed roofs.
Event
Games
PPG
All NFL Games
1,861
42.0
Dome Games
344
45.7
Closed Roof Games
44
42.1
Outdoor Games
1,473
41.4
Dome games clearly result in higher scoring over outdoor games by 10.4%. 
On the surface, closed roof games appear to also have a slight advantage 
over outdoor games by a small margin.

The two teams with closed roofs are Arizona and Houston. Scoring in both 
stadiums actually went up when the roofs were open. Thus, the results for 
closed roof games are inconclusive.

Theory 2: NFL games in cold or hot conditions have lower scores. 
FACT: Untrue.

There is no hard evidence of this.
Temperature
Games
PPG
<10
2
37.0
10-19
22
42.5
20-29
61
40.9
30-39
154
43.0
40-49
263
41.4
50-59
353
42.6
60-69
342
41.0
70-79
259
40.7
80-89
149
40.3
90-99
17
35.5
100+
4
43.5
We recommend that owners not be concerned with temperatures in NFL 
game weather forecasts.

Theory 3: Rain and snow cause NFL games to have lower scores. 
FACT: True.
NOTE: Above are for outdoor games 
only. Dome and Closed roof games 
excluded.
Event
Games
PPG
All NFL Games
1,861
42.0
Dome Games
344
45.7
Outdoor Games
1,473
41.4
Rain or snow
219
37.9
*Flurries
7
39.4
*Light Snow
11
48.5
*Snow
13
35.9
*Chance Rain
83
37.2
*Light Rain
44
37.8
*Rain
61
37.2
Light snow conditions actually caused scoring to increase, even above 
dome games. Yet, it is doubtful that owners will be able to distinguish light 
snow from snow in forecasts. Overall, rain or snow games result in a drop 
in scoring of 8.5% from other outdoor games and 17.1% from dome 
games.

Theory 4: Windy conditions cause NFL games to have lower 
scores. FACT: True.
* Used to determine Rain or Snow Games
Wind(mph)
Games
PPG
0
119
43.6
1-4
158
42.2
5-9
622
41.8
10-14
342
41.2
15-19
153
40.2
20-24
60
37.0
25-29
14
33.6
30+
3
23.6
We recommend owners be very concerned with wind, particularly 
forecasted winds of 20 mph or higher.

Theory 5: Crosswinds cause much lower scores than winds going 
from end zone to end zone. FACT: True.
NOTE: Above are for outdoor games 
only. Dome and Closed Roof games 
excluded.
Event
Games
PPG
Winds of 20+ mph-no crosswind
54
37.0
Winds of 20+-crosswind
17
31.5
Windy conditions, particularly conditions with crosswinds will be very 
detrimental to fantasy production for players. But they are great 
conditions for defenses. We recommend paying very close attention to 
crosswinds in NFL game forecasts
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User: tep
Joined: January 2004
Location: United States
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