Posted Saturday, May 28, 2011 01:14 PM
With the 2-3-2 format, it's very difficult to win 3 straight home games. If Dallas wins twice at home, they'll have to win twice in Miami. Dallas is a very good road team, but don't forget how good of a home team Miami is. Miami is 8-0 at home this postseason. I think it'll be unfortunate for Dirk that Wade and company has stood is his way twice.
Series play: Miami -180
Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 02:29 PM
First thoughts on todays games
Boston on back to back, Atlanta tends to bounce back after a home loss.
Oklahoma over the weekend just downed Boston and Milwaukee on the road, nice accomplishments. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Maybe they put this on cruise and settle for a 6 point win.
San Antonio -3.5
San Antonio is playing fantasic right now. Not only are they winning but they're playing great down the stretch, executing, and putting teams away. Orlando is winning but their success is coming more at their lack of competition. They're not shooting the 3 ball well (except for last game) and that is crucial to their success. This is San Antonio's 3rd game in 4 nights, so that worries me a bit.
What is this we cover only on the road Utah Jazz? Not sure I'm willing to only get 10.5 with this awful Kings team.
Golden State +2.5
Would like to know if Chauncy is in or out. If he's out I'll take the small number. I've seen them playing w/o Chauny and its pretty nasty. Golden State just got embarrassed by the World Champs, I expect them to at least put up their fists in this fight, cause last night they got knocked out quickly like Marvis Frazier did against Iron Mike.
New Orleans -5
New Orleans barely squeaked out the win yesterday in Sacramento scor... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 11, 2010 12:09 PM
Leaning on Boston +6.5, Chicago -6.5, Lakers -3
Miami just doesn't have it together. We all know Miami can dominate, but its a 48 minute game. Miami is 1-3 against playoff teams. I'll take the steady horse on 3 days rest. Going back to last season those old Boston legs are 11-3 on 3 or more days rest. Those 3 losses: Philly, with an 11 game winning streak Boston held an 11 point halftime lead. Only to lose the game on a tip by Elton Brand with less than 8 seconds left. 2nd loss Orlando, they went into Orlando again at half they lead by 11. Boston took the loss as Orlando outscored them by 13 in the final quarter and the game winning basket coming off a Rashard Lewis basket with less than 2 seconds left. 3rd loss, coming in New Orleans. Boston again has a dd lead at half, up 12. But got outplayed in the 2nd half and took the 8 point loss. I really don't believe Miami wins by dd tonight. I do expect this game to be decided by a 4 point Boston win or a less that 10 point Miami win. If my conclusion is accurate, I have a 72% chance of winning.
Posted Friday, January 29, 2010 11:02 AM
At first glance here's what I'm looking at. My opinion will probably change after some digging. But here's what draws my attention right now. Boston +4, NJ +3, Minnesota +1, Chicago +4.5, GS +1
Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 01:50 PM
Looking ahead here, every season I have games that are circled that I will automatically bet on. Tomorrow is one of them.
Wednesday Lakers visit Indiana on a back to back game. This will be there 5th game on their 8 game trip. It will also be there 5th game on the road in 7 days. Lakers are only 3-6 at Conseco Fieldhouse. Historically this is the toughest place for the Lakers to win or should I say against all teams, Lakers have the lowest winning percentage in Indiana.
Now I know many of you will say, well in the past those were different teams so it doesn't apply. That is true, but when the Lakers play in places such as Indiana, Utah, Portland, they just struggle there. Regardless of personnel. What you can see from the last several years is for the most part, the Lakers have had the better team yet still manage to struggle in Indiana.
I tried digging out the actual winning percentage of the Lakers in Indiana but failed to find it. If my memory serves me correct the Lakers franchise winning percentage is under .200 at Indiana the lowest against any team.
So whatever the line is tomorrow, Lakers -8 or -7 or whatever, I will be taking the points along with the moneyline.
08-09, Indiana finishes the season 36-46, Lakers finish 65-17 and beats the Lakers in Indiana 118-117
07-08, Indiana finishes the season 36-46, Lakers finish 57-25 and loses to the La... [More]
Posted Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:48 PM
Saw this morning Orlando -2 in Charlotte. First reaction bullshit! How is a team with a 9 game home winning streak, absolutely murdering some of its visitors getting 2 fucking points from a team that is 2-6 straight up in their last 8 road games? So I did some research and over the last 3 seasons Orlando is 4-1 in Charlotte winning by an average of 15 points with their 1 loss coming by 6 points.
I don't know what this line should be......I guess I expected Charlotte to be a small favorite (I thnk they opened up Charlotte -1)so when I saw Orlando a favorite it threw me off guard.
Charlotte has been fantastic at home, they got killed on the road last night. But now they are facing an opponent who has really had their way with them over the last couple of seaons on their home court. What happens tonight?
I think Orlando takes this one by 7 or more. I don't think Charlotte returns to their home dominance after last night thumping in Atlanta.
My play is Orlando -2
(unless someone makes a great arguement otherwise)
Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 07:50 PM
On Nov 29, 2009 Sunday afternoon Memphis got jumped while playing basketball in Downtown Los Angeles. In the 4th quarter of this basketball game Memphis took a brutal beating by a mob of Clippers while Clipper Darrell and approximately 15,000 people cheered this humilating assault on the Memphis Grizzlies.
Tonight, 6 weeks later and 1794 miles away from their home turf, this same Clipper team will be walking into a hostile Memphis arena, where a team of Grizzlies will be looking for payback. I fully expect to see Memphis come out and look to give these Clippers nothing less them a 48 minute pounding.
I got a bad line of -6, but it won't matter since this game will be a 20+ Memphis victory.
Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 06:39 PM
Cleveland has won 5 straight over Portland, 2 straight at the Rose Garden.
No numbers, no stats, no trends, nothing to support this play. The only thing I can give you is happiness if it wins.
Let the hating begin.
I'll also take Portland +5
Posted Friday, January 08, 2010 01:56 PM
Lakers have not won in Portland since Feb 23, 2005. Going back to 2002 regular season and playoffs Lakers are 3-12 at the Rose Garden. In those 3 wins, they're won by a total of 4 points.
Granted in todays matchup Portland is beatup and wounded. Kobe is well aware of the Lakers struggles in the Rose Garden, but is it just one of those places where the Lakers struggle to win no matter who's on the court? Below are the last 15 games the Lakers have played in the Rose Garden.
March 9, 2009 Lakers -2.5: Lakers lost 111-94
April 10, 2009 Lakers +1.5: Lakers lost 106-98
February 29, 2008 Lakers -6.5: Lakers lost 119-111
April 8, 2008 Lakers -8.5: Lakers lost 112-103
November 8, 2006 Lakers -4.5: Lakers lost 101-90
January 11, 2006 Lakers lost 113-103
March 1, 2006 Lakers lost 99-93
February 23, 2005 Lakers won 86-83
April 20, 2005 Lakers lost 106-103
April 14, 2005 Lakers won 105-104 overtime
April 13, 2003 Lakers lost 101-99
Oct 30, 2002 Lakers lost 102-90
February 17, 2002 Lakers lost 111-105
April 14, 2002 Lakers lost 128-120
April 28, 2002 Lakers won playoffs 92-91
Will also be taking Portland +4
Posted Monday, September 07, 2009 08:34 AM
Lilly has been outstanding at home and flat out so so on the road. In his last 10 starts Chicago is 5-0 at home when Lilly starts and 0-5 on the road when he starts. Pittsburg is feeling good right now with the crazy comeback against St. Louis. I think they have enough to pull out a tight win again.
Well I'd like to keep taking Houston against Philadelphia, I've won 3 straight time, but I have a feeling this may be going to far. Of Happ's last 7 starts, his last 2 have been his worse and Philadelphia has lost them both. My mind is telling me to take Houston, my gut is telling me not to.
How far can this magical run go? Homer is actually pitching better lately, and he's won 3 straight. Rockies are on of those teams that flat out dominate lesser talented teams. I love the line on this game, but I feel like it ends here for Cinci.
Going off memory, the last 4 teams that lost on Sunday Night ESPN have all won on Monday. I like the Dodgers anyways.
I say they go 10-0 against KC this season. With Davies hardly going past 6 innings, you'll get KC's pen for 3 innings.
Posted Tuesday, August 18, 2009 01:17 PM
This season the Phillies are 1-4 in their first home game when they return from a road trip of 6 or more games? AZ isn't quite the team you'd feel confident backing on the road, but how comforting can it be laying -166 on Pedro at Citizens? Garland has been the better pitcher but lacks run support, perhaps he'll get that tonight with his batters watching Pedro's 85 mph fastball.
At +156 I'll take a small jab at AZ.
Posted Tuesday, June 02, 2009 09:16 AM
I'm wondering is he better off double teaming and leaving the Lakers to scramble to cover 3's?
Personally I think he's better off letting Dwight go off for 40-50 and hold the 3 point shooters to 45 or less. I think those guys are so trigger happy that if the Lakers play Dwight staight up and let him abuse Odom, Bynum, and Gasol, the perimeter guys will get anxious and take horrible 3 point attempts just because they are frustrated. Its well known that an offensive player plays better defense when he scores because he's having more "fun" and feels part of the game. If you take that away from Hedo, Lewis, Alston, Lee, Pietrus, they'll get frustrated over time and Orlando will lose all cohesiveness.
Eh just my opinion but sounds like a good plan to me.
Look what Cleveland did and where it got them?