thatsagoodone's Blog

Fading Pedro today?

By thatsagoodone | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, August 18, 2009 01:17 PM   25 comments
This season the Phillies are 1-4 in their first home game when they return from a road trip of 6 or more games?  AZ isn't quite the team you'd feel confident backing on the road, but how comforting can it be laying -166 on Pedro at Citizens?  Garland has been the better pitcher but lacks run support, perhaps he'll get that tonight with his batters watching Pedro's 85 mph fastball. 
 
At +156 I'll take a small jab at AZ. 
25 comments
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kaponofor3 says:
08/18/09 01:23PM
According to Pedro, his fastball is back at the 92, 93 mph range.
louiegatbs says:
08/18/09 01:27PM
Fade him big time...hes not suited for that park and they are gonna find out today,...reynolds hits two dingers...dbacks win
NiC_IcE says:
08/18/09 01:27PM
You backed me on the Backs yesterday... I'm backing you on the Backs today
BUBBA_ARMY48 says:
08/18/09 01:38PM
THIS GUY IS ON IT..................GL KID
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 01:57PM
The Dodgers game jumped out at me.  Why would you lay -191 on the Dodgers when.......

 

1.  Billlingsley is coming off a sore hamstring where Torre sat him out a game as a precaution. 

2.  In his last 6 starts he has not gone more then 6 innings. 

3.  His ERA is over 9 against the Cards this year.

4.  Dodgers are only 3-7 in their last 10 games.

 

 

Or are you thinking that you're fading Boggs?

 

1.  Realize Boggs has only given up 1 hr in 33.1 innings pitched. 

2.  Don't expect Boggs to go deep in the game, in fact he may be gone before Billingsley. 

3.  The Cards have won 9 of their last 10. 

4.  Dodgers aren't hitting the ball well right now.  They've shown the ability to have a break out game here and there where they've scored 9 runs twice in the span of 11 games.  However in those other 9 games they've been held to 5 runs or less (scoring 5 twice). 

5.  The Cards on the other hand have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 11 games, of the other 6 games they scored 5 runs twice. 

 

I know the Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 70-49, but the Cards are right there with them at 68-52.  Not much of a difference there.  Its apparent the Cards are playing great right now, while the Dodgers are stumbling.  Many isn't hitting like Manny could.  I think at -191 the Dodgers are over priced, and you know that taking the Dodgers on the runline is a no-no.  Out of their 70 wins, 21 of those wins came by 1 run.

Gene024 says:
08/18/09 02:03PM
goodone- where do you get stats like how the phillies do on the first home game after a road trip? You just go through the entire season by yourself or is there a site? thanks
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 02:08PM

Jordan - bol to you as well.

Kapono - I was trying to be funny and exaggerate a little. 

Louie - I don't know if he's not suited for that park since he always been a visitor and the Phillies were the ones smacking him around.  

Fruedian - With you on the Indians play and possibly the TB runline.  Price has been stellar at home and the Orioles love to get blown out.  Whoever, I took the A's last night and I think I'll parlay my winnings on them again tonight.

Bubba - Thanks bro, gl to you!

 

tep says:
08/18/09 02:11PM
Pedro was still hitting 93mph in the 5th inning and was striking out batters. Az leads the NL in strike outs and is 2nd in MLB. Be very careful with this game. As much as people want to fade and bash Pedro this game sets up good for him. Pedro is still a strike out pitcher and AZ has struck out 929 times this year. 8 per game.

GL
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 02:15PM

You got it!

Like yesterday I posted a trend on the Orioles after they play a game involving extra innings.  How Balt has played 9 games this season involing extra innings of those 7 times whichever outcome the extra inning game was the game following had the same outcome.  Even tho I was not all that comfortable backing Santana yesterday, the game was nearly a pick at -107 that I played the Angels and fortunately they came through.  Weird stuff

Ltrain14 says:
08/18/09 02:16PM
gl tonite
3RICB3RRY says:
08/18/09 02:17PM
bol

 

on the over so, we'll take a 7-4 dbacks win!

Gene024 says:
08/18/09 02:17PM
alright thanks...
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 02:20PM

Appreciate the intel, betting against the Phillies is not a hobby of mine, but I do think its a good spot.  I may lose and if I do I'm expecting AZ to put up a good fight.  I am upset because last night I could've got AZ at +164, now its at +156. 

thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 02:22PM

I'm not a totals guy, miraculous shit happens when I bet on a total.  BOL and I'll be pulling for you. 

target_9 says:
08/18/09 02:23PM
 Like the D'Backs too!!!
tep says:
08/18/09 02:28PM
If you are going to take AZ hold off till about 5pm. That is about when people get home from work and start betting. The line should bounce up a little.

GL
ochocincoloco says:
08/18/09 02:56PM
Dbacks
fivespot5 says:
08/18/09 03:09PM
Don't have a take on the side going with the over.  Pedro pitched fairly well in his first start but wasn't tested and was up comfortably as the Phils had 12 by the 4th.  Phils don't yet know what they have yet.  Dbacks are in a unique situation having flown twice in 2 days (FWIW).  They aren't patient but they may get 3-4 off the Phils pitching.  Garland has pitched better than the stats but he still gives up the big inning whether it be his fault or the defense.  Thinking we'll see a repeat type of yesterdays AZ/ATL game 9-3 , 8-4 somewhere in there.  GL
louiegatbs says:
08/18/09 03:14PM
Pedro 0-2 at citzens bank park with an era over 8
bdawk says:
08/18/09 03:17PM
Fade the jerry curl?? you kiddin me......
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 03:34PM

I saw those numbers but I'm not looking too much into that, since the Phillies were the ones he was pitching against. 

thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 05:18PM
Another game that interests me is this Red Sox / Blue Jays game.

 

I'm not sold on the fact that the Red Sox should be favored here at -152.  They aren't a .500 team on the road.  Of the road starts Josh has made Boston has gone 7-5.  Look at where he's lost, NY, Texas, Phillies, TB, LAA.  All of those teams are good home teams.  Blue Jays are decent at 31-26.  If you take 2 of his 7 wins away (since 2 of them were in Balt, he's got 5 legit wins on the road coming in, NY, Seattle, Minn, Det, Atlanta. 

 

Romero has already lost 2 starts this year at home against Boston, dueling against Lester and Buchholz.  Both times Romero got hit good, didn't get past the 4th inning either time and giving up 4 earned runs, era over 9 .  Romero has shown the ability to get a few good home wins with Toronto going 6-3 in his home starts.  He just can't beat Boston.  In fact Toronto is 4-2 at home against Boston, both loses were Romero's starts

 

So why do I like Romero tonight?  I just don't feel like this Boston team that has gone 4-8 in their last 12 road games (3 wins coming in Balt ) if you take those away 1-8 have the right to be favored this high against a Toronto team that has gone 4-2 against them on their home turf. 

 

Ballsy play, but this gambling.

cptnmorgan says:
08/18/09 05:20PM
no doubt, me too

Pedro way over valued here.
Swoop says:
08/18/09 05:20PM
 Fading Soul-Glo  
thatsagoodone says:
08/18/09 05:23PM
Just for discussion these are my suicide plays  

 

AZ +160

Pirates +107

Nationals +157

Reds +205

Braves RL -110

Astros +100

Cards +178

Mariners -121

Blue Jays +139

Devil Rays RL -130

Indians -105

Rangers -166

Royals +115

A's -215

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