+53.6 units
Leaning on Boston +6.5, Chicago -6.5, Lakers -3
Boston +6.5
Miami just doesn't have it together. We all know Miami can dominate, but its a 48 minute game. Miami is 1-3 against playoff teams. I'll take the steady horse on 3 days rest. Going back to last season those old Boston legs are 11-3 on 3 or more days rest. Those 3 losses: Philly, with an 11 game winning streak Boston held an 11 point halftime lead. Only to lose the game on a tip by Elton Brand with less than 8 seconds left. 2nd loss Orlando, they went into Orlando again at half they lead by 11. Boston took the loss as Orlando outscored them by 13 in the final quarter and the game winning basket coming off a Rashard Lewis basket with less than 2 seconds left. 3rd loss, coming in New Orleans. Boston again has a dd lead at half, up 12. But got outplayed in the 2nd half and took the 8 point loss. I really don't believe Miami wins by dd tonight. I do expect this game to be decided by a 4 point Boston win or a less that 10 point Miami win. If my conclusion is accurate, I have a 72% chance of winning.