theclaw's Blog

Posted Thursday, October 28, 2010 08:59 PM

the claw's take NFL Week 8 ......................................

NFL Season to Date, all Methods --- 22-16-4 ATS, Won 18.8 units (best bets 0-1)

Dogs ML --- 1-3, Lost 1.65 units

Double Plays 1-0

Overvalued/Undervalued Teams ...................................................

Season to Date --- 15-10-3 ATS, Won 19.5 units

Dogs ML --- 1-2, lost .65 units

Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units

The Bounce Factor .............................................................................

Season to Date --- 3-0-1 ATS, Won 15 units

Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units

Our 2cd double play of the season.............. 1-0 thus far winning with Zona over the Saints

More picks to follow.................

I'm very confident we have a strong week this week, BOL ............

Posted Friday, December 25, 2009 09:34 AM

Cavs at Lakers, cool info inside

Hey guys what's happening ???

Hopefully we'll get a good, exciting game today.

Taking a look at some interesting things about both teams.........

Field goal percentage, the number one stat in the NBA....

Lakers outshoot opponents by 3.7%

Cavs outshoot opponents by 4.6%

Rebounding, the 2cd most important stat in the NBA ...........

Lakers out-rebound opponents by 1.4 per game

Cavs out-rebound opp by 2.5 per game

Lakers hold the advantage winning the free throw battle and the turn-over battle.

There's one area the Cavs hold a huge edge over the Lakers and in my view could decide the out-right winner of the game.

However it likely the least predictable stat aND the hardest for teams to be consistent from game to game. 

And that's 3 pt shooting !!!!

Lakers outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 3%

Cavs outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 10.1%

 Wow, that's a huge number and "IF" the Cavs can outshoot the Lakers by anything near this level they'll likely walk-off the SU winner.

But 3 pt'ers can be a inconsistent shot game to game and that's exactly what happened to the Cavs in last season playoffs when Mo Williams couldn't buy a 3 pt shot.

Same thing happened to Ray Allen 2 season ago when the Celtics went to two 7 game series in the opening 2 rounds, but when Allen found his shot it was lights-out and several 3 pt shooting records later in th... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 22, 2009 11:34 PM

The Bounce Factor - Week 7 - Now 16-5 ATS (76%) in 2008 & 2009

2008 Season --- 11-3 ATS

65% games --- 8-3 ATS

85% games --- 3-0 ATS

2009 Season to Date --- 5-2 ATS, Won 10.8 units

65% games --- 5-2 ATS

85% games --- 0-0 ATS

Hey guys, what's happening ??? 

The Bounce Factor faces a huge test this week and next, it's now calling-out the strongest, most dominate teams this season and saying it's their time to fall.

The 3 teams come into this weekend a combined 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS, Wow !!!

Don't be surprised when one or more of these teams picks-up their 1st loss of the season.

Some of the biggest upsets in NFL history have occured in this exact same spot.  

The picks for week 7............

Rams +14 (-120) over Colts --- 4.8 units to win 4 units

Dolphins +7 (-120) over Saints --- 4.8 units to win 4 units

The 3rd team is Denver, with a bye this week, we'll fade them next week at Baltimore, as well as ride the Titans with our first 85% game of the season.

We'll find-out what The Bounce Factor's made of in the next 2 weeks.

As always guys, GL this weekend !!

Posted Monday, September 07, 2009 08:17 AM

How long can Brady and the Pats stay at the top?

Here's something a mad-scientist like theclaw dug-up, I like this kind of info as it helps one reach many different conclusions about the game.   Let's see what we can uncover here............   Let's rank  the QB's in the 43 years of the SB era who've produced the longest spans between 1st SB win and last SB appearance.   1. Kurt Warner, 1st SB win in 99 season, last SB appearance 2008 season - SPAN OF 10 SEASONS - (3 total SB appearances, 1-2 record in SB game)   2. Joe Montana, 1st SB win in 1981 season, last SB appearance in 1989 season - SPAN OF 9 SEASONS - (4 SB appearances, 4-0)   3. Roger Stuabach, 1st SB win 1971, last SB appearance 1978 - SPAN OF 8 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 2-2).   4. Tom Brady, 1st SB win in 2001 , last SB 2007 - SPAN OF 7 SEASONS - (4 SB's, 3-1).   5. Terry Bradshaw, 1st SB win 1974, last SB 1979 - SPAN OF 6 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 4-0)   6. Troy Aikman, 1st SB win 1992, lst SB 1995 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (3 SB's, 3-0)   7. Jim Pluket, 1st SB win 1980, last SB 1983 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0)   8. Big Ben, 1st SB win 2005, last SB 2008 - SPAN 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0).     There should be a asterk next to Warners name, he's the only QB that didn't do it with the same team, the only QB to produce a losing record in the SB and of the top 5 QB's he's got the fewest SB appearances.   What jumps-off-the-page is that just 5 QB's in 43 years and onl... [More]

Posted Wednesday, August 26, 2009 10:39 AM

Will Pittsburgh repeat in 2009?

Hello guys, I for one am glad to see football back !!!   Over the years I've done quite-a-bit of research into Super Bowl Champions, I look into damn near every stat and angle imaginable, I've got so much info on past SB champs it'd make your head spin.   The one indicator that consistently comes out on top at judging SB WINNERS  in terms of "TEAM STRENGTH"  and postseason domination and a teams ability to repeat or preform well the year after their SB win  is "TOTAL YARDS DIFFERENTIAL"   How much a SB WINNER can outgain it's opponents in the regular season goes a long way to telling you how strong the team is.   Pittsburgh became the 31st team to win the SB since 1978, the year league went to the 16 game schedule and changed the rules to open-up  the passing game and  try to improve scoring.   Pittsburgh became just the 13th SB WINNER to out-gain it's opponents by over 70 yards per game in the regular season. (74.8 yds)   Let's take a look at the previous 12 SB WINNERS who produced a 70 yds or better differential.   8 of the 12 (66.7%) were a part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.   6 of the 12 (50%) were a part of back-to-back repeat SB WINNERS.   Pretty impressive numbers !!!   Of the remaining 18 SB WINNERS just 5 teams (27.8%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.   Chances are that if a ... [More]


User: theclaw
Joined: May 2008

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