Posted Monday, August 10, 2015 09:37 PM
Hey guys, whats happening ?
It's Arena football playoff time and I thought I run my NFL Power Ratings and see what happens.
I've never tried this before, so I have no clue the results we'll see. I have no history, can't find any past stats to do comparisons, only can count on football being football, NFL or Arena league, we'll see.
So with those thoughts here we go...................................
POWER RATINGS I
This PR gives more weight to the passing game but does take into account balance.
1. Saber Cats 17.212. Soul 13.023. Rattlers 11.984. Sharks 9.285. Predators 6.846. Gladiators (-4.26)7. Thunder (-5.9)8. Shock (-6.65)
Cats -26.11 over ThunderSoul - 18.73 over GladiatorsRattlers - 19.43 over ShockPredators -.56 over Sharks
POWER RATING II
This PR is based on more overall balance, but I did make a couple of small adjustments to the NFL version because the run game is used far less often in Arena Football.
1. Cats 17.642. Sharks 15.063. Rattlers 14.794. Predators 10.85. Soul 8.286. Gladiators (-6.45)7. Shock (-11.34)8. Thunder (-15.54)
Wow, the Sharks rate very high here and no.4 in PR I and just half a point from being 3rd.
The info strongly suggest the Sharks are the most undervalued team in the playoffs, their p... [More]
Posted Monday, August 18, 2014 10:29 PM
POWER RATINGS I..............................................
1. Mecury 12.76
2. Lynx 6.17
3. Mystics 2.43
4. Dream 2.12
5. Sky (-.54)
6. Sparks (-.76)
7. Fever (-.84)
8. Stars (-3.36) somebody had to finish last, Stars by far the worst team in playoffs.
Mercury's 12.76 ranks 2cd all-time in WNBA History to the 2000 Houston 15.44.
11 times in 17 seasons the number 1 team won the title.
6 times in past 12 seasons the number 1 team won the title.
Mecury -16.52 over Sparks
Lynx -12.53 overStars
Dream -5.66 over Sky
Mystics -.27 over Fever
We have a play with a 2.5 difference from the closing line.
Posted Sunday, August 10, 2014 11:10 AM
The NFL is Back..............................
Thought I'd take a look at SB winners the year before and see if anything worthwhile can be detrermined.
Here are the Results................................
11 of the 14 SB winners since 2000 out-gained their opponents in total yards. (78.6%)
10 out-played opps in ave gain per play with 1 being even.(75%)
10 out-played opps in ave per pass with 1 being even.(75%)
1 of 14 teams was out-played in all 3 area's the year before. That'd be the 2000 Pats the year before winning the SB in 2001 VS Rams.
They're the only team with a losing record to win as well. And when we consider how unlikely their SB win was, the tuck rule and kicking a FG in a snow-storm to win that game. As well as being the only team I'm aware of that had their defense and special teams score as many TD's in the playoffs as the offenses did. And on top of that the starting QB going down and the back-up comes off the bench to save the day and become the least intercepted QB in playoff history his 1st 3 years in the playoffs.
We can see how low % such a team winning the SB would be.
What the info seems to suggest is teams winning SB's are already pretty good teams the year before. Teams don't go from being bad to winning the SB in 1 year.
Let's look at teams winning at least 10 games the year before...........................
8 of 8 teams out-gained opps in total yards... [More]
Posted Saturday, August 09, 2014 10:25 AM
Anybody ready for some NFL Football ???.............
The season opener will be here before we know it so thought I'd take a look at teams due regressions this season based on expected wins.
Expected wins is based on points scored and points given-up, a teams point margin should match the teams record, if it does not that tells a story about the team.
Here are the teams who's point margin was better than the teams record, in other words these teams would be considered better than their records.
Texans 4.4 expected wins, actual wins 2 or point margin is +2.2 better than their actual wins. The best last season
18 of 21 teams won more games the next season with a +1.5 difference the past 5 years. Just 3 of 18 won fewer games.
15 of the 18 teams who won more games won at least 2 more games.
11 of 18 won at least 3 more games.
Teams +2 or better , (Texans) 12 of 12 teams won more games the next season the past 5 years.
8 of 12 won at least 3 more games
5 of 12 won at least 4 more games.
ATS showing for teams +1.5 or better.................................
week 1 --- 10-11 ATS
1ST Month --- 43-39-2 ATS
Teams that finished the season with 6 wins or fewer but were better by 1.5 or more according to expected wins, in other words they may not have been as ... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 28, 2010 08:59 PM
NFL Season to Date, all Methods --- 22-16-4 ATS, Won 18.8 units (best bets 0-1)
Dogs ML --- 1-3, Lost 1.65 units
Double Plays 1-0
Overvalued/Undervalued Teams ...................................................
Season to Date --- 15-10-3 ATS, Won 19.5 units
Dogs ML --- 1-2, lost .65 units
Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units
The Bounce Factor .............................................................................
Season to Date --- 3-0-1 ATS, Won 15 units
Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units
Our 2cd double play of the season.............. 1-0 thus far winning with Zona over the Saints
More picks to follow.................
I'm very confident we have a strong week this week, BOL ............
Posted Friday, December 25, 2009 09:34 AM
Hey guys what's happening ???
Hopefully we'll get a good, exciting game today.
Taking a look at some interesting things about both teams.........
Field goal percentage, the number one stat in the NBA....
Lakers outshoot opponents by 3.7%
Cavs outshoot opponents by 4.6%
Rebounding, the 2cd most important stat in the NBA ...........
Lakers out-rebound opponents by 1.4 per game
Cavs out-rebound opp by 2.5 per game
Lakers hold the advantage winning the free throw battle and the turn-over battle.
There's one area the Cavs hold a huge edge over the Lakers and in my view could decide the out-right winner of the game.
However it likely the least predictable stat aND the hardest for teams to be consistent from game to game.
And that's 3 pt shooting !!!!
Lakers outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 3%
Cavs outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 10.1%
Wow, that's a huge number and "IF" the Cavs can outshoot the Lakers by anything near this level they'll likely walk-off the SU winner.
But 3 pt'ers can be a inconsistent shot game to game and that's exactly what happened to the Cavs in last season playoffs when Mo Williams couldn't buy a 3 pt shot.
Same thing happened to Ray Allen 2 season ago when the Celtics went to two 7 game series in the opening 2 rounds, but when Allen found his shot it was lights-out and several 3 pt shooting records later in th... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 22, 2009 11:34 PM
2008 Season --- 11-3 ATS
65% games --- 8-3 ATS
85% games --- 3-0 ATS
2009 Season to Date --- 5-2 ATS, Won 10.8 units
65% games --- 5-2 ATS
85% games --- 0-0 ATS
Hey guys, what's happening ???
The Bounce Factor faces a huge test this week and next, it's now calling-out the strongest, most dominate teams this season and saying it's their time to fall.
The 3 teams come into this weekend a combined 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS, Wow !!!
Don't be surprised when one or more of these teams picks-up their 1st loss of the season.
Some of the biggest upsets in NFL history have occured in this exact same spot.
The picks for week 7............
Rams +14 (-120) over Colts --- 4.8 units to win 4 units
Dolphins +7 (-120) over Saints --- 4.8 units to win 4 units
The 3rd team is Denver, with a bye this week, we'll fade them next week at Baltimore, as well as ride the Titans with our first 85% game of the season.
We'll find-out what The Bounce Factor's made of in the next 2 weeks.
As always guys, GL this weekend !!
Posted Monday, September 07, 2009 08:17 AM
Here's something a mad-scientist like theclaw dug-up, I like this kind of info as it helps one reach many different conclusions about the game.
Let's see what we can uncover here............
Let's rank the QB's in the 43 years of the SB era who've produced the longest spans between 1st SB win and last SB appearance.
1. Kurt Warner, 1st SB win in 99 season, last SB appearance 2008 season - SPAN OF 10 SEASONS - (3 total SB appearances, 1-2 record in SB game)
2. Joe Montana, 1st SB win in 1981 season, last SB appearance in 1989 season - SPAN OF 9 SEASONS - (4 SB appearances, 4-0)
3. Roger Stuabach, 1st SB win 1971, last SB appearance 1978 - SPAN OF 8 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 2-2).
4. Tom Brady, 1st SB win in 2001 , last SB 2007 - SPAN OF 7 SEASONS - (4 SB's, 3-1).
5. Terry Bradshaw, 1st SB win 1974, last SB 1979 - SPAN OF 6 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 4-0)
6. Troy Aikman, 1st SB win 1992, lst SB 1995 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (3 SB's, 3-0)
7. Jim Pluket, 1st SB win 1980, last SB 1983 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0)
8. Big Ben, 1st SB win 2005, last SB 2008 - SPAN 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0).
There should be a asterk next to Warners name, he's the only QB that didn't do it with the same team, the only QB to produce a losing record in the SB and of the top 5 QB's he's got the fewest SB appearances.
What jumps-off-the-page is that just 5 QB's in 43 years and onl... [More]
Posted Wednesday, August 26, 2009 10:39 AM
Hello guys, I for one am glad to see football back !!!
Over the years I've done quite-a-bit of research into Super Bowl Champions, I look into damn near every stat and angle imaginable, I've got so much info on past SB champs it'd make your head spin.
The one indicator that consistently comes out on top at judging SB WINNERS in terms of "TEAM STRENGTH" and postseason domination and a teams ability to repeat or preform well the year after their SB win is "TOTAL YARDS DIFFERENTIAL"
How much a SB WINNER can outgain it's opponents in the regular season goes a long way to telling you how strong the team is.
Pittsburgh became the 31st team to win the SB since 1978, the year league went to the 16 game schedule and changed the rules to open-up the passing game and try to improve scoring.
Pittsburgh became just the 13th SB WINNER to out-gain it's opponents by over 70 yards per game in the regular season. (74.8 yds)
Let's take a look at the previous 12 SB WINNERS who produced a 70 yds or better differential.
8 of the 12 (66.7%) were a part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
6 of the 12 (50%) were a part of back-to-back repeat SB WINNERS.
Pretty impressive numbers !!!
Of the remaining 18 SB WINNERS just 5 teams (27.8%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
Chances are that if a ... [More]