theclaw's Blog

Will Pittsburgh repeat in 2009?

By theclaw | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, August 26, 2009 10:39 AM   27 comments
Hello guys, I for one am glad to see football back !!!
 
Over the years I've done quite-a-bit of research into Super Bowl Champions, I look into damn near every stat and angle imaginable, I've got so much info on past SB champs it'd make your head spin.
 
The one indicator that consistently comes out on top at judging SB WINNERS  in terms of "TEAM STRENGTH"  and postseason domination and a teams ability to repeat or preform well the year after their SB win  is "TOTAL YARDS DIFFERENTIAL"
 
How much a SB WINNER can outgain it's opponents in the regular season goes a long way to telling you how strong the team is.
 
Pittsburgh became the 31st team to win the SB since 1978, the year league went to the 16 game schedule and changed the rules to open-up  the passing game and  try to improve scoring.
 
Pittsburgh became just the 13th SB WINNER to out-gain it's opponents by over 70 yards per game in the regular season. (74.8 yds)
 
Let's take a look at the previous 12 SB WINNERS who produced a 70 yds or better differential.
 
8 of the 12 (66.7%) were a part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
 
6 of the 12 (50%) were a part of back-to-back repeat SB WINNERS.
 
Pretty impressive numbers !!!
 
Of the remaining 18 SB WINNERS just 5 teams (27.8%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
 
Chances are that if a team is going to go to back-to back SB's and win 1 or both  it'll be a team that out-gained it's opponents by 70 yards or more, the strongest teams. 
 
Let's take a look at the weakest SB WINNERS, in terms of total yards differential, it only stands to reason that if the best teams in total yards differential perform the best then the worst teams should perform the worst, right ???
 
There are 8 SB WINNERS who've out-gained their opponents by 40 yards or less.
 
1 of 8 (12.5%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
 
2 of 8 (25%) made the playoffs the following season
 
3 of 8 (37.5%) finished with a winning record the following season 
 
In other words, the "STRONG TEAMS" could get to back-to-back SB's  far and away more often then the "WEAK TEAMS" could even make the playoffs or finish with a winning record. 
 
Pittsburgh out-gained it's opponents by 74.8 yards per game in 2009, this info seems to indicate Pittsburgh has incredible value to play futures bets on them  to win the AFC and SB.
 
Hope you enjoyed the info and find it useful this season, good luck !!
 
Next I'll take a look at SB LOSERS and will have some interesting things on the Patroits.
 
 
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27 comments
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WinsRUs says:
08/26/09 04:00PM
the steelers WONT lose versus Tennessee! The titans stomped on the terrible towel. the steelers remember that and if Tomlin is a good coach he'll show the steelers that tape. the steelers go at the titans like a pack of wolves
WinsRUs says:
08/26/09 04:02PM
Megamaniak says:
08/26/09 09:26PM
Not happening.
theclaw says:
09/05/09 09:26PM
Here's some very interesting info on repeat SB Winners I thought you might want to see............

 

Let's take a look at how many seasons passed between each of the 8 repeat SB Winners in the SB Era and see if we can reach any conclusions.

 

I'll list them as they happened, starting with the 1st repeat SB Winners, the 66-67 Packers, which by-the-way happened to be SB 1 and

SB 2 and ending with the last repeat SB Winners the 2003 - 2004 Patroits.

 

1. 5 seasons

2. 1 season

3. 3 seasons

4. 9 seasons

5. 3 seasons

6. 4 seasons

7. 5 seasons

 

The only long period between repeat  SB Winners was between the 78-79 Steelers and 9 years later the 88 49ers would win their 1st SB and repeat the following season.

 

It's very possible the 85 Bears could of repeated in this period had they not lost their starting QB Jim Mcmahon   and then started midseason pick-up Doug Flutie, who threw all of 46 passes attempted as a Bear before starting in the playoff loss to the Redskins .

 

If you take out the one 9 year period as a fluke, then there's never been more than 5 seasons pass without a team winning the 1st SB of a repeat season.

 

Pittsburg win in 2008 was 4 seasons after the last repeat SB Winner the 2003 - 2004 Patroits.

 

In fact, only 3 periods would be longer than the 4 seasons "if" Pittsburg were to repeat, and 3 periods would be shorter with 1 period the same at 4 seasons.

 

This info would suggest we're certainly due for another repeat SB Winner anytime now.

WinsRUs says:
09/05/09 10:00PM
great info
PrimeTimeBoys says:
09/06/09 11:42AM
I think the Steelers repeat!
chillery says:
09/06/09 01:11PM
San Diego, Baltimore and New England are poised to dethrone Pittsburg in the AFC this season
SteelCash says:
09/06/09 11:05PM
It will be tough, but they are still the best team in the league.  Even with Brady back.  They'll be there in the AFC Championship.  And if they play their A game, it's over.  Mark up number 7.  Nobody in the NFC will beat them. 
SteelCash says:
09/06/09 11:07PM

  Good stuff there buddy.  Keep the jokes coming.  Please!

SteelCash says:
09/06/09 11:08PM
theclaw...  that's good stuff.  Thanks for the thread.
bluesplayer says:
09/07/09 12:42AM
bluesplayer says:
09/07/09 12:43AM



Your reaching..
bluesplayer says:
09/07/09 12:50AM
Not with Merrimen Choking and roid raging all over the greater san diego area..
Plisskin76 says:
09/07/09 01:13AM
Yeah ok,chargers are overrated,pats have no defense and ravens don't have enough offense.Pitt has a legit shot to repeat,but going to have to get that running game going.Defense is sick,titans are going to have a long night ahead of them with that statue QB collins,he will get pummeled!HERE WE GO STEELERS,HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
chillery says:
09/07/09 04:30AM


Isn't Big Ben going to jail for raping that women?
veronica27 says:
09/07/09 04:51AM
nice work ! very intriguing to say the least ..

i say it is the ravens turn if they can stay somewhat inj free.

flacco almost made it happen last year , steelers got lucky ..

this year it might be raven time .

note : it seems like it was just yesterday the ravens were playing pitt and all the ravens offense had to do was get in fielf goal range , one nice play .. didn't happen . it may this time around .

 

memories :

it was 16 - 14 late in the 4th q and flacco threw an int that pitt returned for a td .. was bs !

defense wins games ! maybe the ravens should now be looked at as a powerhouse .. like many other teams are simply because of their legendary team names ..

panteraa says:
09/07/09 11:40AM
thanks for the information----my money for the superboal is on the chargers.
MillerLiteBoy says:
09/07/09 02:18PM
They have a 50% chance of doing it LOL.  Just ask the Pats about losing their QB something the Steelers have a chance at doing.
WinsRUs says:
09/07/09 02:29PM
I think it's very likely that the Steelers will repeat. The Patriots in my opinion are slowly falling apart while the Colts have lost some very key players and coaches. Maybe the Chargers and the Steelers will face each other in the AFC Championship
Onthereal says:
09/07/09 08:30PM
no chance.
LogansMichael says:
09/07/09 08:43PM
Vikings/Patriots..going to be great afc championship though steelers/pats..
5time786 says:
09/07/09 09:12PM

No, he scored on a long drive against her defensive team.

kindergartencapper says:
09/08/09 12:16AM
I don't see it happening with our running game!  But when I was sitting in Philly last year, getting blasted by the fans and watching Big Ben get sacked every play I didn't think we would win the Super Bowl!.  On ice or on grass, we'll still kick your ass!
NevadaNightmare says:
09/08/09 01:54AM

He wasn't charged criminaly for that, just sued in civil court.  In other words all it can cost him is money.

Killer_B says:
09/08/09 03:14AM
It was a perfect storm for Pitt last year. No Brady and the Ravens took away potential TN road game that would of made appearance in SB much more difficult. Everything went their way last year, I don't see them repeating unless they continue to get every questionable call (i.e. Pitt TD in Balto to lock up 2 seed) and Brady gets hurt again.
WinsRUs says:
09/08/09 07:56AM
Our running game just upgraded with Parker, Mendenhall and Frank Summers (along with Redman.) In my opinion it's better this year.
theclaw says:
01/30/10 09:57PM

Well guys the Steelers didn't repeat, they didn't even make the playoffs.

However, to be fair they did lose their best defensive player early in the season, Troy Polamalo, who very well could be the best defensive player in the league and is certainly one of the best.

They also lost Aaron Smith another very strong defensive player.

Once Polamalo went out the Steelers lost a number of close games in which they led and lost when they failed to stop their opponents on the very last drive of the game.

The Seelers also didn't lose the turnover battle with Polamalo in the line-up but lost it more than they won it  with him out.

Not sure they could of won the SB this season even if the players had stayed healthy but would have been nice to see them try. I quess we'll never know.

With the Steelers failing to repeat this means we're definatly due for a repeat winner according to the info posted above.

It's been 5 seasons now since a repeat winner and that's the 2cd longest in the SB era.

When you take into consideration teams who won a SB then returned to the SB  but lost the next season, then 5 seasons is the longest stretch of time between back -to back SB teams.

Which means the team which wins the SB this season would have to at least return to the SB next season or it will be the longest stretch of time between such teams in the 44 years of the SB era.

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