BUFFALO MINUS WHATEVER AND HERE'S WHY

The Bills opened as 1 point dogs at home to the Jaguars.  This week the line has jumped 2.5 points towards Buffalo.  Sharp money, probably.  Why is that? 

Jacksonville played the Colts tough last week and ended up winning outright 31-28 as a 7-point home dog.  The theory here is that the Jags will be emotionally spent the week after a big divisional home game (win or loss) and now have to go on the road.  Here’s a historical analysis of this situation in the del Rio era:

’09 – wk 5 beat TEN 37-17 then lost @ SEA 41-0

‘09 – wk 15 lost to IND 35-31 then lost @ NE 35-7

‘08 – wk 16 lost to IND 31-24 then lost @ BAL 27-7

‘06 – wk 14 beat IND 44-17 then lost @ TEN 24-17

‘05 – wk 17 beat TEN 40-13 then lost @ NE 28-3 (wild card)

‘04 – wk 4 lost to IND 24-17 then lost @ SD 34-21

 This is a good sample and pretty clear indication that Jax tends to not show up OTR the week following a big divisional home game.  Now Buffalo has its own problems, especially stopping the run.  But what is working against the Jags is working for the Bills in this spot.  Look for Bills fans at the Ralph to toast the victorious home team at the end of this game.  I locked in Buffalo PK on Friday and recommend taking them up to... [More]

JUDGE'S SATURDAY BASES

Been a while since I've posted plays.  My MLB bankroll is running a little over 1 unit for the year, better than a deficit I suppose.  My normal day is 0 to 4 wagers but for some reason there's a lot of juicy stuff out there today.   GL today everyone. 

SAT ML

Gigantes -160

Chisox +135

Dodgers +115

 

SAT TOTALS

M's/Halos U7.5 (-105)

Rangers/Twins U8.5

Bucs/Braves U9

Nats/Pads U7 (-115)

JUDGE'S NHL PLAYOFF SYSTEM

Firstly, if you’re fundamentally opposed to chase systems, then this isn’t for you. Please move along and good luck this playoff season. 

This system has produced a profit every year the past six years.  Even last year only going 4-2.  In the past six playoff seasons, when a series has been tied 2-2, the game 5 winner has gone 29-4 winning the series.  The four losers:

·         2004 Flames, lost games 6 & 7 in the Stanley Cup final to the Bolts (Sutter choke job)

·         2006 Flames, lost games 6 & 7 in round 1 to the Ducks (Sutter choke job, part II)

·         2009 Devils, lost games 6 & 7 in round 1 to the Hurricanes (Marty gave up the tying and winning goals in the last 2 minutes of game 7)

·         2009 Wings, lost games 6 & 7 in the Stanley Cup Final to the Pens (still can’t figure that one out)

I figure this record is so unbalanced because game 5 is THE most important game in a series.  The team down 3-2 has zero margin for error in game 6, comes out tight and gets away from the strategy that got them there in the first place.  Plus... [More]

Judge's Game 1 NBA Plays

Little value in any of series prices.  Maybe Bucks or Thunder as lottery tickets only.  Better off betting each game.  West is wide open this year so there should be lots of value on the doggies in round one.  I have 4 units on the Cavs 3-2 to win the whole thing.   

All plays = 1 unit each

• BOS -4
• MIL +8.5
• UTA +200
• OKC +280
• SAS +170
• POR +300

Looking to play the game 2 bounce on Western Conference game 1 losers, one unit once the spreads come out. 

GL all.  

JUDGE'S 11/30 NFL PICKS

JUDGE'S THANKSGIVING NFL PICKS

I (heart) Thanksgiving.  It's a holiday of excesses...too much football, too much wine, too much bird.  To fulfill my need for a little restraint, I only have one good pick to kick-off week 13.   Too many points to give in Detroit - don't like the total but leaning under.  Damn, I was thinking Philly right from the closing gun last Sunday.  When the line came out ARZ +3 I said, whaaat? Bye bye value.  Is this a trap?  I truly thought that Vegas would discount this Iggle team that has not had a quality win since beating a good Atlanta team a month ago at the Bank.  94% on the Cards ML and 70% on the Cards +3, although this has been dropping from 90% all week with no line movement.  Sharps waiting for PHI -2.5?  Could be and I'll wait too.               Thursday Sides:   SEA +12.5 (1.5 Units) SEA +630 (0.5 Units)   Living in the Bay Area, and with no means of getting DirecTV, I get a steady dose of Niner and Raider games.  Thank you for your sympathies. But that means I got to watch a very mediocre Dallas team cream the dysfunctional San Franciscans last weekend.  Every third Tony Romo pass looked like Tony Orlando chucked it.  Their offense has not regained the rhythm it displayed earlier in the season.  The defense seemed to bend but not break, and the final score was ... [More]

JUDGE'S WEEK 12 PICKS

For the third week in a row, I've been on the right side of the Thursday nighter.  My boys played sloppily, and we'll will be shopping for a new punter for the holidays, but they didn't need too much effort against the feeble Bengals.   This Week 1-0, +1.00 units   NFL Season 29-20-1;  +8.42 units   All wagers are one unit.    Sunday Sides:   CAR +1:  Divisional game with huge playoff implications.  Atlanta has had a solid season under first year pivot Matt Ryan, but the Panthers are the top dog in the division.  Panthers have won the last three ATS vs. Atlanta.  Falcons defense is suspect and their offense has been the major factor in their wins.  In their four losses, they have scored 9, 9, 14 and 20 points.  Carolina D has been dominant all year, only allowing 19 ppg OTR.  What about that game in Tampa?  Jake was picked three times on three tipped passes stopping three TD drives.  Oh and the Bucs blocked a punt for a TD too.  Maybe next year, Matt.          Sunday Totals:   HOU/CLE U50:  Ever tried to throw a football with a broken finger?  Pretty tough right?  Now, try it in 31 degree weather.  Texans have been an over machine this year, but here's a tip from PFW's handicapping column:   Since 2005, the Texans have scored only 15 points per game in road games played outdoors in Week 12 a... [More]

JUDGE'S WEEK 11 NFL PICKS

Good day NFL punters.    At first glance, this week's card didn't seem to have much of interest.  But upon further review, there's a few juicy divisional matchups with early playoff implications and some trends to exploit.  Let's take a look at a few.   Last Week 3-2; +0.98 units   NFL Season 26-17-1;  +8.44 units   All wagers are one unit.    Sunday Teaser:   JAX +8.5 & Under 46 I probably would have simply banged the Jags at +3 if I hadn't farted around and missed the boat.  Too bad I can only find it now at +2.5 and I'm too damn cheap to buy the hook here.  88% on the Titans and yet there's reverse movement toward the Jags.  As Borat would say, "Whaaat??"  Makes no damn sense.  Why take the Jags?  Here's the rub.  Since '05, Tennessee has controlled game 1 of the series while the Jags have won game 2.  Only exception to this rule was in '06 when three (!) Jag turnovers were returned for TD's by the Titans D.  Home dog in a division game.  Each of Jax's five losses this year have been by a TD or less.  Jags got their mojo back in Detroit and the Bears provided a great template for how to stop the vaunted Titans running game.  Jax 0-4 ATS @ home this year but, 10-3 as a dog of 3 pts or less.  Titans are on a hot ATS streak six ways to Sunday and well documented elsewhere.  Total has been bid up to 40, so the... [More]

JUDGE'S MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK

NFL Top Picks

Hope you like NFL picks because I got some dandies. Here are my favorite plays for today's pro pigskin action.   This Week 1-0; +1.10 units   NFL Season 24-15-1;  +8.56 units   All wagers are one unit.    Sunday Sides:   GB +2.5   Packers dominate this series, winners of last five overall and four of five at the Homerdome, Vikes cannot be taken seriously with Gus at QB, Pack healthy, Vikes D banged up and perhaps missing three starters including Jared Allen, AP is a beast but can't win the game himself, glad to be getting plus money as line movement favors Vikes     Sunday Totals:   SEA/MIA U42.5   All four Dolphin home games have come in under this total.  Fish preach ball security and ball control.  Hawks missing their playmakers and unable to score a lot of points except vs. flawed teams like the Niners and Rams.        NYG/PHI U43   This just feels like a knock 'em down, drag 'em out, good old NFC East slugfest.  Both defenses punish, both D-lines run deep, both sides possess solid running games, both QBs can make their throws but are prone to an erratic throw or two.  Eagles ST ranked 20th and Giants 28th.       Bit of a lukewarm card this week.  Might hit some halftimes and late games, but likely sitting out the Colts/Steelers tilt.  Too many injury questions for Pitt... [More]

JUDGE'S 11/7 NFL PICKS

JUDGE'S 10/30 NHL PICK

NHL Season 1-2;  -0.82 units   DISCLAIMER:  I am a pure NHL-dabbler only.  Smart guys are over there in Weebles, JRock's, Lipps', or Weathered's threads.     But I AM a hockey fan and San Jose resident.  Sharks are off to their best start ever and the boys have really taken to Coach McLellan's up-tempo, attacking style of play.  And guess where this strategy came from?  That's right, Hockeytown, where he was an assistant the past three years.    The Wings have proven to be a tough nemesis for the Sharks, going 4-1 their last 5 at HP.  Wings 5-0-1 OTR this year while the Sharkies are unbeaten in 6 at home.  From stats.com, Nabby is 0-3-0 with a 6.35 goals-against average in his last four home starts versus Detroit.  Good price here, perhaps because Conklin is expected to relieve Ozzy between the pipes.    Logic tells you that McLellan has enough inside knowledge of the Wings to exploit their weaknesses, and San Jose certainly has the talent to execute such a game plan.  My gut tells me though that the Wings will find a way to vanquish the home side, as per usual.  The Talent + Coaching equation is so even between these two teams that this becomes a pure value play at plus money.      Thursday ML: DET +135 - One Unit   BOL tonight everybody.     ... [More]

JUDGE'S 10/26 NFL PICKS

This Month 11-5; +6.21 units   NFL Season 18-10;  +7.89 units   All wagers are one unit.    Sunday Sides:   WAS -7 (Bought the hook):  This is my square play of the week. Heavy public on Washington - 83% right now.  Lions are awful and Skins should have covered last week.  Washington is 4-1 ATS as a fave OTR.  Lions 1-5 ATS last six home games.      PIT -2.5:  Yes, Fast Willie will be on the sidelines.  Yes, the Steelers have not beaten anybody with a winning record.  Yes, the Giants are presently favored to repaeat as NFC champs.  Yes, I'm a homer.  This game will be won or lost within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Giants D-line should dominate a spotty Steelers O-line.  Steelers front 7 + Polamalu, and Lebeau's exotic shit should rattle Eli.  Game might come down to a FG and I'm fortunate I got a line that no longer exists.         Sunday Totals:   SD/NO U46: Shout out to Weebles for turning me on here.  The hour-by-hour forecast at Wembley calls for rain starting right now, until 4 hours after kick-off.  Typical London October weather.  The pitch will be a mess and should upset the timing and footwork of these two finesse teams.  Chargers' last 4 and Saints' last 2 have gone under the total.    BUF/MIA U42:  Tough divisional game and yet another opportun... [More]

JUDGE'S GAME 2 WORLD SERIES PICKS

MLB Playoffs:  8-7; -0.33 Units   Wednesday: PHI +100  1.5 units  Over 7.5   1.5 units    Sheesh...think the Phils could have left more men on base last night? Oh-fer-11 with RISP.     Thursday:   TB to win the WS +140 2 units    As I wrote in earlier threads, I think the Rays starters top to bottom are far superior to the Phillies rotation.  And although the Phils pen has a better reputation, Buddy Holly Maddon has proven to be adept at using his "spare parts" pen effectively.  Last night he went Balfour to Miller to Wheeler to get out of a 1st and 2nd, one out jam in the 9th.  Versus the Sox, he used 5 pitchers in the 8th inning of game 7 to stifle a potential rally.  Bats come and go but solid pitching rules in the postseason.    Last night, BJ and Longoria looked like they both just jumped off the bus from Durham.  Upton (who by the way was robbed of the ALCS MVP trophy) was especially putrid, grounding into 2 DP's and being the third out in 3 of his 4 ABs.  Hamels was on the ropes a few times but was able to wiggle out of trouble thanks to these two.  Aki is a stud lead-off guy who did his job very well, setting the table for the big bats.       THE PHILS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!    Too much caffeine and I'm channeling Dennis Green.  Very predictable Phillie bats last nigh... [More]