The Bills opened as 1 point dogs at home to the Jaguars.  This week the line has jumped 2.5 points towards Buffalo.  Sharp money, probably.  Why is that? 

Jacksonville played the Colts tough last week and ended up winning outright 31-28 as a 7-point home dog.  The theory here is that the Jags will be emotionally spent the week after a big divisional home game (win or loss) and now have to go on the road.  Here’s a historical analysis of this situation in the del Rio era:

’09 – wk 5 beat TEN 37-17 then lost @ SEA 41-0

‘09 – wk 15 lost to IND 35-31 then lost @ NE 35-7

‘08 – wk 16 lost to IND 31-24 then lost @ BAL 27-7

‘06 – wk 14 beat IND 44-17 then lost @ TEN 24-17

‘05 – wk 17 beat TEN 40-13 then lost @ NE 28-3 (wild card)

‘04 – wk 4 lost to IND 24-17 then lost @ SD 34-21

 This is a good sample and pretty clear indication that Jax tends to not show up OTR the week following a big divisional home game.  Now Buffalo has its own problems, especially stopping the run.  But what is working against the Jags is working for the Bills in this spot.  Look for Bills fans at the Ralph to toast the victorious home team at the end of this game.  I locked in Buffalo PK on Friday and recommend taking them up to -2.5. 

Good luck Sunday.