thorpe's Blog

Posted Sunday, May 16, 2010 09:23 AM

Conference previews and rankings

Starting with Mt West.

Mt West is on a probationary period to join the BCS.  The BCS ranks the conference over consecutive years and the Mt West has had great years the last 2.  They have a ton on the line and I see them doing great non-conference.

Top 25 caliber programs:  Utah, BYU, and TCU are all good enough programs to be in the top 25 every year.  TCU is very solid and doesn't need to catch any breaks to win.  BYU can be beat, but they are very dangerous when their offense clicks.  I am a little down on them but they can beat anyone on their best day at home.  Air Force will likely work there way into the top 25 towards the end of the year.  These teams will all project to 9+ win years.  Utah has upgraded their talent the last few years (look at the NFL draft) and I expect them to be good every year with their talented, older players.

Up and coming teams:  New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, and Wyoming all have coaches in their first and second year.  None of them really have their whole system in place with the right personnel.  I like the UNLV coach who had great results at Montana, but Omar Clayton is an enigma.  New Mexico is a huge question mark for me who can beat a lot of teams but also get blown out a lot.  SDSU has great coaches and decent talent and might make some strides this year.  I kind of like Wyoming, who have a good defense and an improving offense.

Down and out... [More]

Posted Tuesday, July 28, 2009 07:33 PM


This information is for the use of my friends on the board.  Please do not come into my thread and be unfriendly.

These are some metrics I have come up with using cfbstats and also doing a lot of the work myself.  These numbers are based 100% on stats from last year.  I took the number of possessions each team had, and calculated the number of TDs they scored, number of FGs attempted, Turnovers, and Punts.  I used those numbers to come up with an efficiency.  Then I did the same thing with the defenses numbers.

If a team has a new coach this year, or new schemes, or they lost talent to graduation, then you need to adjust for that.  Also, strrength schedule is not taken into consideration.  I would like to, but that is too much work right now.  I might work something up in a couple weeks...

The next 4 posts will contain the rankings

Posted Monday, August 11, 2008 03:39 PM 4 Team Parlay Loophole

TheGreek does something wierd with parlays you can take advanatage of.  If you google "Parlay Calculator" you can find websites that will tell you what the "true" odds of a parlay are.  The True Odds are what you would get paid if you bet all games by themselves, but put everything you won on the next game.

All wagers will be $10 to keep things easy.  I will also just give the payout on the parlay. 

Lets start with a 2 team parlay where both teams are -110.
True Odds =  $26.45
TheGreek = $26 - getting screwed but by just a little

3 teams - all -110
True Odds = $59.58
TheGreek = $60 - a little better than expected

4 teams all -110
True Odds = $122.83
TheGreek = $100 - getting screwed quite a bit

Now, here is the loophole.  When you a parlay where some of the odds are -110 and some are not, TheGreek will look at the number of -110 games you bet and figure the odds out according to their chart of payouts, and then will apply the bets that are not -110 at true odds.  So, there are a couple of things you can do.

1)  If you are thining about a 4 team parlay with all games at -110, you can buy half a point on one game.  You get paid 118.33 for doing this, so you are getting an extra 18 on a 10 bet and are getting a half point.  You can buy 1.5 points on a game and still get 110.

2)  Also for 4 teamers, if you don't want to buy points, take 3 games at -110 and ma... [More]


User: thorpe
Joined: September 2002

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