tooez's Blog

Super Bowl 45 Props

By tooez | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 05:07 PM   19 comments

Hey guys, I finally got some time to research the available props and found some that look pretty good. I have a big list right now but will narrow it down as the week goes on. These props are all actual props you can cap, not how long Christina sings the national anthem or what the coin toss will be. Feel free to post your favorites and let me know what you think!

1. Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes? No -115 I just think the nerves of being in a super bowl will show these teams coming out somewhat slow.

2. Longest TD of the game? Under 44.5 -115. I just don't see a 45+ yarder with these defenses.

3. Will either team score in the last 3.5 minutes of the game? Yes -155. A little juiced but I think this has a great chance at hitting.

4. Total sacks by both teams? Over 5 -125. Should be atleast 3 sacks on both sides of the ball.

Pitt Player Props:

5. Mendenhall total rushing yards: Over 81.5 -115. Packers allow 115 rush yards per game.

6. Mendenhall Rushing attempts Over 19.5: Just a lean here but I think they will have some success on the ground. Both playoff games he's gotten 20 and 27 attempts.

7. Ward receiving yards: Under 48.5: Only 5 games all season has he gone over this number.

8. Wallace longest reception: Over 24.5: Not a fan of the total yards prop here but think he'll get atleast one catch of 25 yds or more.

Packers:

9. Greg Jennings receiving yards: Over 82.5. 4 of the last 5 games he's gone over this number.

10. Driver receiving yards: Under 49.5. I just don't see Driver being very effective with all the other weapons Rodgers has.

That's what I got so far, I'm hoping to limit this to 6 max. Let me know what you guys think!!     

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Werker says:
01/31/11 06:01PM
1) I see both teams looking to take a deep shot on the first play of the game, and both teams are very capable of converting right out of the gate.

2) See above, not a fan of this under. Especially on turf. Both teams have a significant vertical threat. Actually, as I'm writing this, I realize I really like the over.

3) Too much juice. These defenses are too good for that much.

4) Love it.

5) Look up the stats on the Packers in their last 5. That rush defense has stiffened up. And don't doubt that Legursky is going to affect Pitt's offense. PLUS, Mendy has only hit the over here 8 of 18 games. And he has almost no shot of hitting this number if Pitt isn't ahead in the second half.

6) Hate this one. You might as well just bet the Pitt ML for the better odds, 'cause he'll never get there on this one if Pitt isn't ahead for the whole 2h.

7) What worries me about this one is the prospect of Miller being kept back as a blocker due to Pouncey being out. I think Ward would get a lot of Miller targets.

8) Can't really argue with this one. Kind of flukey though.

9) Like it. Think he's generally unstoppable.

10) Driver does have the most experience, and that might count for more targets in this game.

Just my opinion. Good luck.
ICEman83 says:
01/31/11 06:06PM

out of all those I like:

total sacks over 5

Mendenhall over 19.5 attempts

Do you see a prop for Rodgers and Big Ben rushing yards or attempts?

GL with your plays............

tooez says:
01/31/11 08:47PM

Thanks guys, that's why I posted this early to get some input and narrow down my leans. Now here's my response to some of your opinions:

Werker: I agree both teams CAN score in the first 6 minutes, but look at these playoffs and when they actually did score. It's only happened once in the 5 post season games they've played and it was Green Bay's first drive against Chicago in 4:10. Against Atlanta, no score for 10:00. Against Philly, no score for almost the entire 1st quarter. Pitt has yet to do it. For #3 only one game did not have a score in the final 3.5 minutes and it was the same one, Green Bay at Chicago. As for Mendenhall, look what he's done in the playoffs and that shows why I leaned toward those 2 props. Plus, they know they need to keep Rodgers off the field which means ground and pound. Thanks for you input tho, I appreciate it.

IceMan: Sportsbook has props for total rushing yards on the QB's. Big Ben is 11.5 (-125). Rodgers is 20.5 (-115).

DumbWalrus: For Mike Wallace, I'm saying I don't like the prop for total yards which I have at o/u 65.5 yards. Instead I like that one cause he's always a big play threat. And it is available, here it is copy and pasted:

Mike Wallace - Longest Reception - Must Play (No Reception - Under is Winner)

02/06/11

18:25 ET

500 Longest Reception
 OFF OFF Over 24.5 (-115)

Longest Reception
 OFF OFF Under 24.5 (-115)

TRAIN69 says:
01/31/11 11:57PM
heyjohnny says:
02/01/11 12:11AM

The total is only 44 but the Yards Passing props lead one to believe Vegas is expecting A LOT of Yards passing by both teams. . . . . .

I'm going to go with the Props lean and PLAY that the total goes OVER 44 points.....

keep throwing the ball guys...............

ICEman83 says:
02/01/11 12:28AM

I like Big Ben over 11.5 yards.............

just have to pray he doesnt get sacked a lot. I believe they subtract that from his rushing yards..............

heyjohnny says:
02/01/11 01:06AM
yes they do............
Reach says:
02/02/11 01:51AM

1. Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes? No -115 I just think the nerves of being in a super bowl will show these teams coming out somewhat slow.

Good luck tooez.  I like the 1st quarter under 9.5 better than this prop.  It protects you from an early field goal and gives you a better chance of winning. 

tooez says:
02/02/11 01:22PM

Reach: I hear what your saying and I still really like both props. Refer to my answer to Werker on post #5. Only one of the 5 games these two teams played in the post season had a score in the first 6.5 minutes.

Will be back shortly with my narrowed down list

tooez says:
02/02/11 01:53PM

Here's my list of narrowed down leans:

1. Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes? No -115

2. Will either team score in the last 3.5 minutes of the game? Yes -155.

3. Total sacks by both teams? Over 5 -125

4. Wallace Longest Reception? Over 24.5 -115

Adding: 5. 1st Quarter Under 9.5 -115

Haven't locked any of these in yet but these are my strong leans. I may add or subtract some in the next few days.

onebadgolfer says:
02/02/11 04:08PM
No, quarterback sacks count as yards lost rushing only in in the archaic world of college stats. 
esele77 says:
02/02/11 05:48PM
I like Khun as the first TD of the game (+1000)...anyone else??
tooez says:
02/02/11 10:19PM

That is great value esele but the only way it happens is if Green Bay gets to the 1 before any TD is scored. I can see that happening sometime in the game, but it's tough to say that will be the first TD.

 GL

friday says:
02/02/11 10:30PM
thinking bout parlaying rodgers -33 passing yards (over ben) and rogers -3 completions along with jennings -20 yds over wallace

what do you think?
friday says:
02/02/11 11:09PM


bookie, u like it?
friday says:
02/02/11 11:11PM
maybe throw in mendenhall -25 yds over starks?
tooez says:
02/03/11 02:27AM

friday: for one your bookie is crazy for letting you do that. But since you can, I like the first 2 but don't personally like jennings -20 over wallace or mendenhall -25 over starks. Too close to call. Just my opinion.

 BOL

tooez says:
02/04/11 06:59PM

Got a couple others released from my local that I started looking at:

Will Pitt score a rushing TD? Yes -180

What will happen first? Green Bay TD +120 or punt -150. Pitt TD +120 or punt -150. (I'm thinking both teams punt on first drive).

Halftime score tied, pitt wins game +1000 (great value here but gotta hope both teams are tied at half).

Let me know what you guys think of these. Going to lock in my plays by tomorrow.

TRAIN69 says:
02/04/11 08:03PM
check my thread on the mendenhall prop
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User: tooez
Joined: September 2009
Location: Minnesota
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Occupation: Communication

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