Posted Saturday, January 28, 2012 04:11 PM
OK. Working under the assumption that in general the public will more often lose than win, I pose the fundamental question we've asked ourselves a thousand times through the years: Will the "public" be right?
The first problem I have with this is the definition of the "public". Twenty years ago we had to watch the line move, ask around, and then try to go against who all of our golf buddies said was the "obvious" pick. (Just like the scene in "Let It Ride", the idea was to do what Jay Trotter did, which was absolutely cross out every horse that somebody at the track said was their "lock".) We'd imagine what would happen if we walked down the street and asked everyone we ran into who they liked in the game. But at that point you must ask yourself, am I trying to shade the better known / perceived better team, or figuring out who people are actually BETTING.
These days we're in information overload.... every Larry, Earl and Gus think they know exactly who is on what, and to what extent. We have line tracking, multiple websites reporting % of bets placed on each side, % of money on each side, as well as casino personnel on radio shows and podcasts TELLING us which side the public is on, and more importantly which side the "sharps" are on. (It is in this scenario that most of us also make the mistake of assuming the public and sharps MUST be on opposite sides, which is also not the case. See Giants at Packers and Broncos at Patriots two ... [More]