CFB System Details

Here is an overview of the system.  It is taken from JM NFL system and modified to produce larger numbers of wins while trying to eliminate the losses. 


Criteria for a setup:

If a team has lost its last three "lined" SU and ATS games with no "unlined" games in between, then this is the set-up for a potential play.



Filters:

1) Losses of more than 75 points combined in the last three games
2) Going 5 games below .500 after the third ATS and SU loss
3) Regression - teams that have lost ATS by more each successive week


Plays:

1)  If a team that has lost three SU and ATS has not lost those games by more than 75 points SU and the team is not 5 games under .500 in unlined games, begin play with an [A] bet the following week. 

1A)  If that team has lost three SU and ATS has lost ATS by a smaller margin in each successive game, this is a progression team.  Play this as a stronger bet for that week only.  This indicates the potential for the team to actually cover or even win outright that week.  This can be either [A], [B] or [C] bet.

1B)  If a series pushes on [A] bet, throw out the series.  A lot of times, a push ATS is as good as a win for some poor teams.  Chasing with an [A] bet the following week may be disaster.

1C)  If a team is a regression team, wait until the following week.  Place that team on hold and see if the team pla... [More]

CFB System Tracking

Week 4 System Plays
New Mexico ML [A] or New Mexico -9.5 [A]
Miami-Ohio +7.5 [A]

A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)

I wanted to start a new thread based off the "John Morrison" NFL system.  Basically the criteria is this:

1)  Wait for a team to lose 3 consecutive games SU and ATS.
2)  Once the sequence occurs, play as follows:
     a)  If the team on the 3 game ATS and SU losing streak is a favorite, play them on the ML.
     b)  If that team is a dog, play the pointspread, buying a 1/2 on key numbers.
3)  Play a three-game series.

I understand many sportsbooks don't offer ML prices for games with higher spreads, so what I have done is make the cut-off 10 points.  If a team is favored by more than 10 points, then take the spread, buying down 1/2 onto or off of key numbers.

With that said, my goal is to apply the system to all college football teams that qualify. 

Other caviats:
   1)  A series CAN begin with less than 3 games remaining, if it loses out, we take a percentage loss.  Such loss will NOT be included in the stats but will be shown for information purposes.
   2)  If there are unlined games while the three loss ATS and SU pattern forms, or if there are unlined games during the three game series, the series is thrown out.
   3)  Bowl games are NOT included.
   4)  A push during the formation of a three game ATS and SU streak is thrown out, mainly because the ATS is not a loss.  Ho... [More]

NJPorky/usakangy NFL 2H system plays - Week 16

Sorry guys!  Lost power right as the games were about to go to the half due to power glitch from high wind gusts in the Pittsburgh area. 

I do not have all lines at this time.  I am playing Porky systems small because of the playoff implications on these games. 

Let me see what we still have on the slate and I will post the plays. 


PATRIOTS -3 2H
SAINTS -3 2H

NJPorky/usakangy 2H NFL system plays - Week 15

Starting a new thread.  Rough week last week.  Let's get 'em back.  Hurrying to get this out.


Niners/Dolphins - NO PLAY
Bills / Jets OVER 20.5 2H

NJPorky/usakangy 2H CFB system plays - Week 15

Hey guys just starting a new thread for the CFB 2H plays for week 15...   PORKY'S ORIGINAL PLAYS (SIDES ONLY) WILL BE IN RED
KANGY'S TIGHTENED NJPORKY PLAYS (SIDES ONLY) WILL BE IN BLUE
KANGY'S C-and-E SYSTEM PLAYS WILL BE IN GREEN

Last week
Porky's Original system 12-4
Kangy's Tightened Porky plays 7-2
Kangy's C-and-E range system plays 0-1


This weekend, with a limited slate of games and conference championships on deck.  I will only play the tightened system on non-conference championship games.  The reason is because there are no "official" home or road teams during the championships and bowl games.  Therefore, the tightener (which weeds out situations such as home favorites) will not apply. 

Currently, the tightened system is a backtested record of 67-45 (59.8%) YTD. 

We can still play the C-and-E range system plays and NJPorky's original system.

Next play is Thursday night - Louisville @ Rutgers


Below are the remaining games where the tightener system will be used.  For all other games, we will continue to use the original system and range plays.

Saturday
PITT @ UCONN
ECAR @ TULSA
WASH @ CAL
USC @ UCLA
WKY @ FIU
ARKST @ TROY
AZST @ ARIZ
SFLA @ WVU
CIN @ HAW

Back at the haftimes of all games to post  plays.
... [More]

NJPorky/usakangy 2H NFL system plays - Week 14

Just starting a new thread for week 14 NFL.  This forum is a joint forum with both original Porky system plays (including totals) and my +/-7 2H system plays (which are 16-5-1 YTD).  Below are the YTD results of the +/-7 system only.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (WIN)
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (WIN)
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (WIN)
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (WIN) 
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (LOSS)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (WIN)
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (WIN) 
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (WIN)
WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ (WIN)
WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX (WIN)
WK 9 - CIN +7 vs. JAX (LOSS)
WK 9 - KC +7 vs. TB (LOSS)
WK 10 - KC +10 @ SD (WIN)
WK 10 - SF +9 @ ARZ (LOSS)
WK 11 - DET +7 @ CAR (WIN)
WK 11 - CIN +7 vs. PHI (PUSH)
WK 12 - CIN +7 @ PIT (LOSS)
WK 12 - OAK +7 @ DEN (WIN)
WK 13 - DEN +7 @ NYJ (WIN)

Road teams with the +/-7 system are 14-2!!!

Porky original system plays, always in RED, went 8-5 last week
Kangy +/-7 system plays, always in BLUE, went 1-0 last week

I will be back at the halftimes to post any plays..... 

First game - Thursday night.  Raiders-Chargers may be a possible Kangy system play.  I will be in an out, if you have questions, please post in the playbook.  Thanks! 
... [More]

NJPorky/usakangy 2H NFL system plays - Week 13

This forum is a joint forum with both original Porky system plays (including totals) and my +/-7 2H system plays (which are 15-5-1 YTD).  Below are the results so far of the +/-7 system.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (WIN)
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (WIN)
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (WIN)
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (WIN) 
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (LOSS)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (WIN)
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (WIN) 
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (WIN)
WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL (WIN)
WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ (WIN)
WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX (WIN)
WK 9 - CIN +7 vs. JAX (LOSS)
WK 9 - KC +7 vs. TB (LOSS)
WK 10 - KC +10 @ SD (WIN)
WK 10 - SF +9 @ ARZ (LOSS)
WK 11 - DET +7 @ CAR (WIN)
WK 11 - CIN +7 vs. PHI (PUSH)
WK 12 - CIN +7 @ PIT (LOSS)
WK 12 - OAK +7 @ DEN (WIN)

Road teams with the +/-7 system are 13-2!!!

 
Back at the halftimes.....

--- CFB 2H NJPorky/usakangy system plays (PART 3) ---

KANGY'S C-and-E SYSTEM PLAYS WILL BE IN GREEN


So far a great day all around today!!!

Porky's Original system 7-3 today (11-4 this week)
Kangy's Tightened Porky plays (sides only) 5-1 today (6-2 this week)
Kangy's C-and-E range system plays 0-1 today (0-1 this week)

Again, a side note, NJPorky has removed all totals plays from his original system. 

Six more games on today's slate.  I will be back for the halftime of the Tennessee/Kentucky game to post, field any comments or questions.  GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!

--- CFB 2H NJPorky/usakangy system plays (PART 2) ---

KANGY'S C-and-E SYSTEM PLAYS WILL BE IN GREEN


So far
Porky's Original system 3-1 today (7-2 this week)
Kangy's Tightened Porky plays (sides only) 2-0 today (3-1 this week)
No plays yet in the range systems

NJPorky's system will no longer include totals.

2H CFB System Plays - Week 14 - Friday

NEW THREAD FOR WEEK 14 OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Hope everyone had a very blessed Thanksgiving Day!!  I was away visiting family and friends and was nowhere near a computer to post plays.  I am back home now.  I had a very nice time and I have been truly thankful for a lot of things this year - one is hooking up with you guys to help fatten all our wallets. 

With just a week or so remaining until the end of the college football regular season, I will continue to track and post the plays for the NJPorky tightened system and my C-range and E-range (until I come up with a better name) systems. 

Please be aware, that I will not be posting the tightened plays in the post season for the simple fact that the tightener depends on home and road teams.  In bowl games, there is no true home and road team - so the system will not be applicable.  As such, I will no longer post tightened plays after the regular season ends, but will post any C-and-E system plays, if applicable.   

The tightened system took a slight beating last week going 4-5 (with filtered original system side plays going 8-3).  So, playing Porky's original system - sides only would have gone 12-8 last week.  This was the second week in a row the tightener filtered out more "no-play" winners than losers and the second week in a row the tightener itself failed to produce a profit. 

Tightened NJPorky system is 60-43 (58%) YTD... [More]

Modified NFL +/-7 2H System Plays (14-5-1 YTD)

This system is a derivative of Porky's original 2H betting system - which started out in College Football and was applied to the NFL. 

The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.

A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line. 

While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season. 

This year 20 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points.  There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation.  Here are the YTD results.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (WIN)  - middle 8.5
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (WIN)  - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (WIN)  - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (LOSS)  - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (WIN)  - middle 7
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (WIN)  - middle 8
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (WIN)  - middle 4.5
WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 17.5
WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ (WIN)  - middle 7
WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX (WIN)  - middle 10
WK 9 -... [More]

2H CFB System Plays - Week 13 - Part II

Starting a new thread.  Just got back from runnign errands.  Let's see what I missed while I was out....

Filtered "no play" on Duke +7.5 2H
Tightened system play on UL-Monroe +6.5 2H
Tightened system play on Iowa PK 2H

No further plays...  Next game is the Fla State/Maryland game. 


Updating the tightened system plays:
PURDUE -2.5 2H 
TENNESSEE +1.5 2H
CENTRAL FLORIDA +4.5 2H 
TEXAS-EL PASO +10.5 2H  
BOISE STATE -1.5 2H  


Pending tightened plays:
LOUISIANA-MONROE +6.5 2H 
IOWA PK 2H 


Filtered out plays (for tracking only):
Rutgers -7 2H  (LOSS)
NC State +7.5 2H  (WIN)
Northwestern +3 2H  (WIN)
Mid Tenn State -6.5 2H  (WIN)
Penn State -7 2H  (WIN)
Ole Miss +3 2H  (WIN)
Duke +7.5 2H  (WIN)


C-Range system plays:
SYRACUSE +10 2H


Looks like this system is doing the exact opposite of what it is supposed to do.  Currently the tightened system is 1-4, filtered "no-plays" are 6-1, C-range plays are 1-0.  This may be the last week for this system.  As the end of the season (with BCS and bowl eligibility on the line), the system is starting to fail. 


I am here for the remainder of the night to post the plays.  Hopefully, we will have enough plays to break even.  We will see - or you can fade the system.   
... [More]

2H CFB System Plays - Week 13 - Part I

With a couple more weeks remaining until conference championships and bowl season, I figure I will continue to track and post the plays for the NJPorky tightened system and my C-range and E-range (until I come up with a better name) systems.

Backtested results are still 56-38 (59.5%) for the season. 

I will be back at halftime to post plays for the systems. 


NOTE: I will be in and out all day.  So I will post when I am around and try to get as many of them in as possible.

NJPorky 2H College Football System w/ Tightener Plus

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 SYSTEM ALERT!!!  I have added an additional filter to the system!!!

Using NJPorky’s original system, we want to play on any second half team such that if that team wins the 2H ATS line, causes the middle to miss.  The middle is the difference between the full game ATS line and the in-game effective ATS line taken into consideration the halftime score and the 2H line.  See my blog for calculating middles.

I outline the entire system again (with the change) and will show the records and why I made the change.   This will filter out even more plays, but you are always welcome to play those filtered plays as you see fit.

I have broken down the numbers into a wide range of scenarios while trying to keep the system simple.

Using three middling ranges, here is the tightened system.  All plays are sides only, no totals.

System criteria
1.  If the middle is 21+ points, play system as usual.
 
2.  If the middle is between 15-20.5 points, bet if our "play-on" team is a road team only.  This is a change from before where we would bet on either the road team or the favorite and no home dogs.  Road teams in this range are 21-12.  Home favorites (which we are filtering out) have only gone 4-7 this year.  Therefore I am removing the home fa... [More]

NJPorky's 2H Betting System - Selecting Sides

It is important to remember that in betting 2H lines that Vegas has a limited amount of time to get these lines published.  This does present some excellent betting opportunities when they come along.  Sometimes it is easy to see to see what Vegas is thinking when they publish their lines.


For example, team A (9-0) is favored by 10 points over team B (2-7). Team B is leading team A 20-10 at the half.  Team A now needs to win the 2H by 21 points to earn a cover for the game.  Vegas gives us an idea how they expect team A to perform in the 2H when the line comes out. 

The public will tend to bet with favorites and this system is a contrarian system and a momentum play.  This system says to choose the side that has the momentum.  More times than not the side other than the what the public believes will be the winner.

So going back to the example, team A, the favorite is down by 10 at the half, are favored for the game by 10, and are favored in the 2H by 10.  Now Vegas is telling us, they have given up on the idea that team A will cover the game spread, they are just hoping team A wins.  So the public puts the money down on the favorite to win the 2H by 10 and win the game outright.  Wrong play!  If the favorite cannot cover the first half spread of -5 (which is usually half of the closing game line), why would they be able to cover the second half spread at -10? 

This system selects the... [More]

NJPorky's 2H Betting System Explained

This pretty much sums up what the system, in general, is all about.  It gives examples on how to choose sides and totals.  The system was originally used to track college football, then ported to the NFL with some success.  Along the way, I and a few others on this site have found some situations during our backtesting and applied extra fillers and tighteners (rules) to when to play a team and when not to play.  Check it out.

Click here to be taken to the one of the original posts.

Modified NJPorky 2H NFL System (7+ System)

This system is a derivative of Porky's original 2H betting system - which started out in College Football and was applied to the NFL.  Please see other posts or my blog for information about NJPorky's 2H betting system.  In one of NJPorky's threads, I wrote about and started tracking how qualifying teams with his system would fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle. 

The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.

A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line. 

While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season. 

This year 16 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points.  There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation.  Here are the YTD results.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (WIN)  - middle 8.5
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (WIN)  - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (WIN)  - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (LOSS)  - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (WIN)  - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (WIN)  - mid... [More]

NJPorky 2H College Football System w/ Tightener

NJPorky’s System for NCAA Football

Based on NJPorky’s system, we want to play on any second half team such that if that team wins the 2H ATS line, causes the middle to miss.  The middle is the difference between the full game ATS line and the in-game effective ATS line taken into consideration the halftime score and the 2H line. 

Since I have not gotten Porky's "blessing" yet, I can only call this an un-officially tightened system.  I have broken down the numbers into a wide range of scenarios while trying to keep the system simple. 

Using three middling points, here is the generalized tightened system.  All plays are sides only, no totals.

NOTE: I have removed the "play-against" scenario because that indicates we'd play on the team that would cause the middle to hit, thus going against the system.
 

1.  If the middle is 21+ points, play system as usual.  Bet smaller when the "play-on" team is a home dog only.

2.  If the middle is 15-20.5 points, bet if our "play-on" team is a road team or a favorite.  Do not bet if they are home dogs.

3.  If the middle is 10-14.5 points, bet if our "play-on" team is a road favorite only.  Do not bet if they are home teams or dogs.

4.  Otherwise, it's a no play.


This effectively pushes our general system to use a 21-point middle, but still allow us to play teams using 10+ and 15+ middle as well.&nb... [More]

"Modified" Porky 2H NFL System - 13-3 YTD (11-0 road teams)

This system is a derivative of Porky's original 2H betting system - which started out in College Football and was applied to the NFL.  Please see other posts or my blog for information about NJPorky's 2H betting system.  In one of NJPorky's threads, I wrote about and started tracking how qualifying teams with his system would fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle. 

The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.

A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line. 

While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season. 

This year 16 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points.  There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation.  Here are the YTD results.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND ()  - middle 8.5
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG ()  - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE ()  - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (  - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD ()  - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL ()  - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL ()  - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ ... [More]

NJPorky 2H CFB System Tightener - Week 10 Part I

I will be around to post the nine games that start before 2pm, then I have to go to work. 

So I would appreciate if someone would post the plays for the games that start after 2pm.  Hopefully I will return to catch the late games tonight. 

Last week the tightened system went 6-3.  Filtered plays went 3-4-1. 
This week the tightened system is 0-1.  Filtered plays are 1-0.
Filtered plays are plays we did not play because of certain criteria depending of the middling range.

NJPorky, feel free to post your original unfiltered plays as well. Best of luck to all.

CFB faves...Do they cover ATS when ahead (but not already covering) at HT?

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

I came across something interesting while researching CFB games this year.  This system will help you determine whether or not a favorite will cover the game spread based on the lead at halftime relative to the spread and a middle.

Criteria

1.  Eliminate ALL games where the favorite has already covered the game spread by halftime.

2.  Eliminate ALL games where the score is tied or the underdog is ahead at halftime.

3.  Consider only games where there is a middle of 6 or more (see my blog on calculating middles)

If team A is favored by X points and is leading at the half four scenarios are possible:
  a.  Team is covering the X point spread at the half.  Do not consider this scenario.
  b.  Team is covering by about half the spread (2H line will most likely be close to the difference) presenting little or no middle.
  c.  Team is covering by less than half of the original line (2H line will most likely be half of the original spread, presenting a good middle)
  d.  Team is covering by more than hal... [More]

NJPorky 2H College Football System w/ Tightener - Wk 9 - Part IV

Starting a new thread for the night games.

Completed plays (3-3)
TXTECH 2H +1.5 
FLORIDA 2H -10 
OKLAH 2H -7 
RICE 2H +3 
KENT 2H +3.5 
NAVY 2H -6 

Lots o' loot still to be had!!

NJPorky 2H College Football System w/ Tightener - Wk 9 - Part III

Starting a new forum for the afternoon slate of games....

Currently:

Completed plays (2-1)
TXTECH 2H +1.5 
FLORIDA 2H -10 
OKLAH 2H -7 


Pending plays

RICE 2H +3

NJPorky 2H College Football System w/ Tightener - Wk 9 - Part II

Starting up another thread for the 12pm games.  Let's hope we see some good play possibilities early.