Here is an overview of the system.  It is taken from JM NFL system and modified to produce larger numbers of wins while trying to eliminate the losses. 


Criteria for a setup:

If a team has lost its last three "lined" SU and ATS games with no "unlined" games in between, then this is the set-up for a potential play.



Filters:

1) Losses of more than 75 points combined in the last three games
2) Going 5 games below .500 after the third ATS and SU loss
3) Regression - teams that have lost ATS by more each successive week


Plays:

1)  If a team that has lost three SU and ATS has not lost those games by more than 75 points SU and the team is not 5 games under .500 in unlined games, begin play with an [A] bet the following week. 

1A)  If that team has lost three SU and ATS has lost ATS by a smaller margin in each successive game, this is a progression team.  Play this as a stronger bet for that week only.  This indicates the potential for the team to actually cover or even win outright that week.  This can be either [A], [B] or [C] bet.

1B)  If a series pushes on [A] bet, throw out the series.  A lot of times, a push ATS is as good as a win for some poor teams.  Chasing with an [A] bet the following week may be disaster.

1C)  If a team is a regression team, wait until the following week.  Place that team on hold and see if the team plays better this week.


2)  If a team has lost by either a combined 75 points SU or a team is 5 games games under .500 in lined games, this is a filtered team.  We must look for criteria:

2A)  If the team is a progression team, play it for a normal wager (see 1A)

2B)  If the team is a regression team, see 1C.

2C)  Otherwise, this indicates a team that is neutral and appears to play well one game and not so well the next, and vice versa.  Play these teams like this.

2C1)  Compare the ATS differences between a team's game last week and the one two weeks ago (call this ATS1-2) with the difference in ATS between the team's game two weeks ago and the week before that (call this ATS2-3). 

For example, a teams three losses ATS were by -5, -13, -10 respectively.  ATS1-2 is the difference between the first two ATS margins.  Here, a decrease of 8.  ATS2-3 is the difference in ATS margin between a teams last game and the game before it, here it is +3.

2C2)  If ATS2-3 is greater than 0 (an improvement) and ATS1-2 is less than 0, then compare the absolute values (drop the signs).  If the absolute value of ATS2-3 is greater than the absolute value of ATS1-2, then this becomes a play. 

2C3)  If ATS2-3 is greater than 0 (an improvement) and ATS1-2 is less than 0, and the absolute value of ATS2-3 is less than that of ATS1-2, this team becomes a "hold" team to see what happens the following week.

2C4)  In either case, if ATS2-3 is less than zero, this team becomes a "hold" team to see what happens the following week.

Note:  If ATS1-2 and ATS2-3 are both positive, this is a progression team.  If they are both negative, this denotes a regression team.

I will supply examples throughout the season....

Cheers,
Kangy