usakangy's Blog

A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)

By usakangy | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, August 11, 2009 06:47 PM

202 comments

I wanted to start a new thread based off the "John Morrison" NFL system. Basically the criteria is this:

1) Wait for a team to lose 3 consecutive games SU and ATS.
2) Once the sequence occurs, play as follows:
     a) If the team on the 3 game ATS and SU losing streak is a favorite, play them on the ML.
     b) If that team is a dog, play the pointspread, buying a 1/2 on key numbers.
3) Play a three-game series.

I understand many sportsbooks don't offer ML prices for games with higher spreads, so what I have done is make the cut-off 10 points. If a team is favored by more than 10 points, then take the spread, buying down 1/2 onto or off of key numbers.

With that said, my goal is to apply the system to all college football teams that qualify.

Other caviats:
   1) A series CAN begin with less than 3 games remaining, if it loses out, we take a percentage loss. Such loss will NOT be included in the stats but will be shown for information purposes.
   2) If there are unlined games while the three loss ATS and SU pattern forms, or if there are unlined games during the three game series, the series is thrown out.
   3) Bowl games are NOT included.
   4) A push during the formation of a three game ATS and SU streak is thrown out, mainly because the ATS is not a loss. However a push during one or more of the three game series is carried over to the next games. For example, if a [B] bet pushes, then the following game is a [B] bet.

Every day, I will attempt to post series records for one of the CFB conferences. All results will be backtested as far back as Covers allows (24 years) and all results will be posted based off Covers' lines. Hopefully, we can see how the power conferences fare so we know how to play the teams.

For each team, I will break down the total backtested series results, with number of bets won at each of the [A], [B], [C] levels.

ACC

Boston College (4-0) - 3 [A] wins / 0 [B] wins / 1 [C] win
Clemson (4-0) - 3 [A] wins / 1 [B] win / 0 [C] wins
Duke (6-2) - 4 / 1 / 1
Florida State (1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0
Georgia Tech (3-1) - 2 / 0 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Maryland (8-0) - 5 / 3 / 0
Miami, FL (3-0) - 2 / 0 / 1
North Carolina (3-0) - 1 / 0 / 2
North Carolina State (9-0) - 6 / 3 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Virginia (4-0) - 3 / 1 / 0
Virginia Tech (2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Wake Forest (6-0) - 5 / 1 / 0

Total (53-3) - 37 / 10 / 6

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usakangy says:

08/12/09 04:31PM

Since incomplete series losses don't count in these records, it does count against your wallet. An incomplete series [A] loss is -1 unit, essentially wiping out a series win. An incomplete series [B] loss puts you in the hole about 3 units, equivalent of 3 series wins. Obviously a full loss is roughly 7 units.

BIG 12

Baylor (6-2) - 6 / 0 / 0 (2 incomplete series losses at [A])
Colorado (4-0) - 4 / 0 / 0
Iowa State (7-3) - 3 / 3 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Kansas (9-2) - 5 / 4 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Kansas State (6-0) - 6 / 0 / 0 (2 incomplete series loss at [A])
Missouri (8-0) - 5 / 2 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Nebraska (2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Oklahoma (2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Oklahoma State (10-0) - 7 / 1 / 2
Texas (1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0
Texas A&M (2-1) - 2 / 0 / 0
Texas Tech (2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0

Total (59-8)
42 games won at the [A] bet
13 games won at the [B] bet
4 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses

usakangy says:

08/12/09 05:42PM

OK, OK, I'm in a groove. You get a bonus for today.

BIG EAST

Cincinnati (4-1) - 1 / 1 / 2 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Connecticut (0-0) - Incomplete season data prior to 2000
Louisville (2-2) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Pittsburgh (8-0) - 6 / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B[)
Rutgers (6-0) - 4 / 1 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
South Florida (3-0) - 3 / 0 / 0
Syracuse (6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0
West Virgina (3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0

Total (32-4)
21 games won at the [A] bet
8 games won at the [B] bet
3 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses

Lippsman says:

08/12/09 05:57PM

Looks like staying away from these incomplete series is the way to go. 3 games left or nothing

usakangy says:

08/12/09 11:03PM

Well believe it or not, a lot of the games won on the [A] or [B] bet of an incomplete series. I'll have the numbers in my next post.

hoop121 says:

08/12/09 11:08PM

that's because the first 4 games of the season for most BCS teams are cake. So if they lose the first 3 of conference then that puts them at game 8 of a 12 game schedule. I'd imagine the majority of these series will start with only 3 games to go in the season for the team.

usakangy says:

08/13/09 07:28AM

Let me clarify... A lot of the incomplete series have actually won. But obviously, the first possible series begins no earlier than game 4. A lot of 3 game SU and ATS losses occurred early enough (say games 5-7, for example) that actually allowed a complete series (e.g. games 8-10) to be played through. There are also a three-game stretch of SU and ATS losses that occur starting with say games 8-10, which would warrant a play on game 11. Lot's of times that last game wins, sometimes they lose. But overall, the breakdown I believe is about 70-30, in favor of full series type wins vs. incomplete series type wins. If you guys want that information I can include it as part of the daily reports. I just need a way to present it so it does not cloud the other statistics. Give me a few minutes here.

usakangy says:

08/13/09 08:22AM

I have re-posted the first conference which now includes pure series (series where there must be three games in order to chase). These records will be indicated in RED. Next to each team, will now be a number in parenthesis indicating number of incomplete series wins. For example: Boston College is (4-0; 2-0) - 3 (2) / 0 / 1. This means overall, they are 4-0 (2-0 in complete series chases). The 3 indicates [A] series wins total, the 2 in parenthesis will not show how many of those three were incomplete wins). If a qualifying play is the last game of the season, then there will be either an incomplete win at [A] or an incomplete loss at [A]. Not sure how else to describe it. Hopefully it will make sense as we go along. Perhaps I would recommend playing an incomplete series this way... bet normal on [A], if it losses, bet the same amount on [B], to recoup just the losses on [B]. This way, an incomplete series loss at [B] costs you just 2 wins instead of three. Or just make one bet on an incomplete series [A] if it wins great, if it loses so be it and don't go to a [B] bet.

I have also included a little feature indicating ratio of incomplete losses to incomplete wins, including a percentage. The lower the percentage, the higher the profits. GREEN indicates profit. An incomplete [B] loss drains your wallet of 3 units if using the Martingale. So at worse case a 1:3 (33%) breaks even. Playing an incomplete [A] bet, the break even point is 1:1 (50%). This should help us judge whether or not long term we should bet [A] and [B] at the end of the season, bet [A] only, or not play the partial series at all.

ACC

Boston College (4-0; 2-0) - 3 (2) / 0 / 1
Clemson (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 1 / 0
Duke (6-2; 6-2) - 4 / 1 / 1
Florida State (1-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0
Georgia Tech (3-1; 3-1) - 2 / 0 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
Maryland (8-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 3 (1) / 0
Miami, FL (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1
North Carolina (3-0; 3-0) - 1 / 0 / 2
North Carolina State (9-0; 8-0) - 6 (1) / 3 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Virginia (4-0; 3-0) - 3 / 1 (1) / 0
Virginia Tech (2-0; 2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Wake Forest (6-0; 6-0) - 5 / 1 / 0

Total (53-3)
Record if not including incomplete series (44-3)

37 series won at the [A] bet (7 of these were incomplete series wins)
10 series won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
1 incomplete [B] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 1:7 (14%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 1:2 (50%)

usakangy says:

08/13/09 08:37AM

BIG 12

Baylor (6-2; 2-2) - 6 (4) / 0 / 0 (2 inc losses at [A])

Colorado (4-0; 2-0) - 4 (2) / 0 / 0

Iowa State (7-3; 7-3) - 3 / 3 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])

Kansas (9-2; 6-2) - 5 (2) / 4 (1) / 0 (1 inc loss at [A])

Kansas State (6-0; 4-0) - 6 (2) / 0 / 0 (2 inc loss at [A])

Missouri (8-0, 5-0) - 5 (2) / 2 (1) / 1 (1 inc loss at [B])

Nebraska (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0

Oklahoma (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])

Oklahoma State (10-0; 9-0) - 7 (1) / 1 / 2

Texas (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0

Texas A&M (2-1; 2-1) - 2 / 0 / 0

Texas Tech (2-0; 1-0) - 1 (1) / 1 / 0

Total (59-8)

Record if not including incomplete series (42-8)

42 games won at the [A] bet (15 of these were incomplete series wins)

13 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)

4 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses

Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 6:15 (40%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 2:2 (100%)

BIG EAST

Cincinnati (4-1; 4-1) - 1 / 1 / 2 (1 inc loss at [A])
Connecticut (0-0; 0-0) - Incomplete season data prior to 2000
Louisville (2-2; 2-2) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Pittsburgh (8-0; 7-0) - 6 / 2 (1) / 0 (1 inc loss at [A], 1 at [B[)
Rutgers (6-0; 4-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
South Florida (3-0; 2-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0
Syracuse (6-1; 6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0
West Virgina (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0

Total (32-4)
Record if not including incomplete series (28-4)

21 games won at the [A] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
8 games won at the [B] bet (1 of these was incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 3:3 (100%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 2:1 (200%)

A correction: The break even point of an incomplete series [A] bet is 1:1 (100%). So our ratio should be under 100% to make a profit. The ratio of 1:3 for am incomplete series [B] wager (still 33%) is the breakeven point. Does this actually help anyone?

So taking the Big East, clearly playing the incomplete series would not be profitable. Playing the ACC incomplete [A] bets would be more profitable than playing the Big 12 incomplete [A] bets.

Send me questions if you are confused.... I tried to keep it simple, but I know somewhere along the way someone will ask about incomplete series, so I figured I'd start including the stuff now.

usakangy says:

08/13/09 06:15PM

Today we tackle the Big 10+1 conference. Looks like a profitable system on incomplete series for those wanting to pick up an extra win here and there.

BIG TEN +1

Illinois (6-2; 6-2) - 4 / 1 / 0
Indiana (4-4; 4-4) - 3 / 1 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Iowa (2-0; 1-0) - 0 / 2 (1) / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Michigan (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0
Michigan State (12-0; 9-0) - 7 (3) / 4 / 1
Minnesota (6-0; 5-0) - 2 (1) / 3 / 1 (2 inc losses at [A])
Northwestern (10-1; 6-1) - 6 (3) / 4 (1) / 0
Ohio State (3-0; 2-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0
Penn State (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 1 / 0
Purdue (7-1; 7-1) - 4 / 2 / 1 (1 inc loss at [B])
Wisconsin (4-0; 3-0) - 1 (1) / 3 / 0

Total (58-8)
Record if not including incomplete series (46-8)

33 games won at the [A] bet (10 of these were incomplete series wins)
21 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these was incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
2 incomplete [A] losses
3 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 2/10 (20%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 3/2 (150%)

After running final numbers on this conference, there were 10

incomplete wins at [A] and 2 incomplete losses at [A].

Of the 10 wins, 9 of them were on a team's last game of the season. The other win came in a team's second to last game of the season. So

making an [A] bet on the final game of the season went 9-2. Smells like

profit to me. What is not profit is Indiana and Illinois.

Since there were 2 incomplete wins at [B] and 3 incomplete losses at [B], there were 5 additional [A] games that lost, so incomplete [A] games went 9-7 overall, not too good.

Recommendation is to play, only if they qualify, all [A] games if they are a team's last regular game of the season.

chicano1 says:

08/14/09 12:50AM

Hey Kang

looks like some great stuff !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I live in GA

cant wait to get those SEC numbers ran !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANKS

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

boycali01 says:

08/14/09 01:19AM

thank for the research

usakangy says:

08/14/09 10:13PM

Thanks guys! Chicano, you have to wait a few more days for SEC

Today we focus on the CONFERENCE USA. A nice mid-major conference with some nice looking teams this year. This one might be worth taking a look with the exception of a few teams at the end that just likes to screw up a conference.

CONFERENCE USA

Alabama-Birmingham (5-0; 5-0) - 3 / 2 / 0 (no data prior to 1997)
Central Florida (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0 (no data prior to 1995)
East Carolina (2-0; 2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Houston (7-1; 6-1) - 4 (1) / 2 / 1 (2 inc losses at [B])
Marshall (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (no data prior to 1995)
Memphis (6-0; 5-0) - 3 (1) / 3 / 0
Rice (6-1; 5-1) - 5 (1) / 0 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
Southern Methodist (12-0; 12-0) - 7 / 4 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
Southern Mississippi (3-0; 2-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 2
Texas-El Paso (9-0; 8-0) - 3 (1) / 4 / 2
Tulane (6-2; 4-2) - 4 (2) / 1 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Tulsa (8-3; 6-3) - 4 (2) / 3 / 1

Total (68-7)
Record if not including incomplete series (59-7)

37 games won at the [A] bet (9 of these were incomplete series wins)
22 games won at the [B] bet (none were incomplete series wins)
9 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
3 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 3/9 (33%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 3/0 (999%)

There were 9

incomplete wins at [A] and 3 incomplete losses at [A].

Of the 9 wins, 6 of them were on a team's last game of the season.

The other 3 came in a team's second to last game of the season. So

making an [A] bet on the final game of the season went 6-3. A little profit there. Since there were three incomplete series losses at [B], those [A] games all lost. So overall, making an [A] bet on an incomplete series went 6-6. Not good.

All but one of the series losses came in an odd year. 2009 is an odd year... Stay away from the Terrible Toos (TOO-lane and TOOL-sa). These teams, with nicknames aptly named for natural disasters are looking to make a disaster out of your wallet. .

Until next time! Happy betting!

chicano1 says:

08/15/09 12:45AM

Thats fine KANG

I love sports so much I wish I had time to do this and that and help others out but I work way to many hours in a week to do so.........

I definitely commend you and all others who take out so many hours a day crunching numbers for those of us who dont have the time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CANT WAIT...............

usakangy says:

08/15/09 07:25PM

Well, I am slacking off a little today. This is not really a conference, nevertheless I will include them. Maybe there is a reason they are not in a conference....

Short and sweet....

DIVISION I-A INDEPENDENTS

Army (6-0; 3-0) - 4 (3) / 1 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Navy (7-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Notre Dame (5-0; 3-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 0
Western Kentucky (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0

Total (19-0)
Record if not including incomplete series (13-0)
14 games won at the [A] bet (6 of these were incomplete series wins)
4 games won at the [B] bet (no incomplete series went to a [B] bet)
no series even went to the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 1/6 (17%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 0/0

I don't need to say too much about this. Every one of the 6 incomplete series either won or lost at the [A] bet. In 3 of these series, there was a possible [B] bet.

Time to work on a real conference. Next up... the Mid-American conference. Cheers

usakangy says:

08/15/09 07:30PM

Correction to the previous post....

Navy has no incomplete series losses.

All the rest of the stats remain the same. Even the shortest and simplest of these posts are prone to mistakes.

DIVISION I-A INDEPENDENTS

Army (6-0; 3-0) - 4 (3) / 1 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Navy (7-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 2 / 0
Notre Dame (5-0; 3-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 0
Western Kentucky (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0

Total (19-0)
Record if not including incomplete series (13-0)
14 games won at the [A] bet (6 of these were incomplete series wins)
4 games won at the [B] bet (no incomplete series went to a [B] bet)
no series even went to the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 1/6 (17%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 0/0

usakangy says:

08/16/09 10:33AM

One thing I thought of this morning while reviewing this data. You cannot always predict when a game will have a line. Since we cannot always predict the future, if you already have an [A] or [B] bet loss and the [C] game comes up unlined, that doesn't mean you cannot play [C] the following week. For purposes of this system, since we always have past data at our disposal, it is easy to say let's throw out the series. You can always throw a series out prior to betting or even on the [A] game, but once that [B] or [C] game comes around, you have to either take the loss or take the chance the following week.

Now on to today's conference, the MAC. Lined information for this conference only goes back to 1989, however Temple which was part of the Big East and (now) division I-FCS Atlantic-10 conference during the past 24 seasons has lined information going all the way back to 1985.

MID AMERICAN

Akron (8-0; 8-0) - 7 / 1 / 0
Ball State (3-1; 3-1) - 1 / 1 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Bowling Green (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Buffalo (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0
Central Michigan (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1
Eastern Michigan (7-0; 7-0) - 3 / 4 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])

Kent State (5-1; 5-1) - 3 / 0 / 2 (3 incomplete series losses at [A])

Miami (OH) (3-0; 3-0) - 1 / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Northern Illinois (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])

Ohio (8-0; 7-0) - 7 (1) / 1 / 0

Temple (9-0; 8-0) - 6 (1) / 1 / 2 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 2 at [B])

Toledo (4-0; 4-0) - 2 / 1 / 1
Western Michigan (3-0; 3-0) - 0 / 3 / 0

Total (59-2)
Record if not including incomplete series (56-2)
36 games won at the [A] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
16 games won at the [B] bet (none of these were incomplete series wins)
7 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
5 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 6/3 (200%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 5/0 (999%)

Clearly the best teams in terms of covering the line after 3 SU and ATS losses are Akron and Ohio with an 88% cover rate at the [A] game. Where this conference gets burned is all the incomplete series losses which really take a toll on the wallet. Even the incomplete [A] games are not profitable in this conference.

Therefore, eliminating all incomplete series, the conference is a blistering 56-2 over the past 20 seasons and 25-1 since the 2000 season, with Kent State (2007) being the only blemish. Very profitable indeed.

Until next time... Cheers

usakangy says:

08/17/09 08:28AM

Today's conference is the Mountain West. There were no lines on UNLV games from 1986-1993 and from 1996 to 2000 at least Covers does not have them. Does anyone know why?

MOUNTAIN WEST

Air Force (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Brigham Young (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0
Colorado State (4-1; 4-1) - 3 / 1 / 0
New Mexico (6-1; 6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0 (2 incomplete series losses at [A])
San Diego State (8-1; 7-1) - 5 (1) / 1 / 2 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Texas Christian (6-0; 5-0) - 5 (1) / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Nevada-Las Vegas (4-0; 4-0) - 2 / 0 / 2 (1 incomplete series losses at [B])

Utah (6-0; 6-0) - 3 / 3 / 0
Wyoming (4-2; 3-2) - 3 (1) / 0 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Total (45-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (41-5)
30 games won at the [A] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
9 games won at the [B] bet (none of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
2 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 6/4 (150%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 2/0 (999%)

Utah and TCU appear to be the most profitable from a units standpoint, but Wyoming is clearly at the bottom. I wonder what it is about teams that appear last in alphabetic order that happen to sport the worst records in the conference. There is a slight profit (approximately 6 units) playing this conference without the incomplete series. Playing those picks up only 4 additional wins, but those are drained by the 6 [A] and 2 [B] losses. Even the [A] games that appear as a final game of the season are only 4-5 over the past 24 years.

We are heading down the homestretch. Tomorrow we will look at the Pac-10

usakangy says:

08/18/09 08:23AM

Today, we look at the Pac-10 conference.

PAC-10

Arizona (4-0; 4-0) - 3 / 0 / 1
Arizona State (9-0; 6-0) - 6 (1) / 3 (2) / 0
California (6-1; 6-1) - 3 / 3 / 0
California-Los Angeles (4-0; 3-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 3 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Oregon (4-0; 4-0) - 3 / 1 / 0
Oregon State (8-1; 8-1) - 6 / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Southern California (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1

Stanford (10-0; 9-0) - 6 / 3 (1) / 1

Washington (5-2; 2-2) - 5 (3) / 0 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Washington State (7-1; 4-1) - 5 (2) / 2 (1) / 0 (2 incomplete series losses at [A], 1 at [B])

Total (60-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (48-5)
40 games won at the [A] bet (8 of these were incomplete series wins)
14 games won at the [B] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
5 incomplete series [A] losses
2 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 5/8 (63%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 2/4 (50%)

Again, the two teams at the bottom of the alphabetical list are the ones bringing the conference into mediocrity. Stanford and Arizona State are the most profitable. I see no advantage one way or the other of playing incomplete series. You may gain 1/2 unit at best playing them. Leave the two teams from Washington out, and you can find about 3-4 units profit from playing the incomplete series.

Tomorrow, I shall focus on the SEC, then cover the Sun Belt on Thursday and conclude with the WAC on Friday.

Starting Saturday, I will break this all down the other way, by season and try to equate actual units to all conferences as we get ready for the college football season.

usakangy says:

08/19/09 12:27AM

Today, we look at the SEC.

SEC

Alabama (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Arkansas (4-1; 3-1) - 4 (1) / 0 / 0
Auburn (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0
Florida (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
Georgia (0-0; 0-0) - 0 / 0 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Kentucky (10-0; 7-0) - 8 (3) / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Louisiana State (2-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 1 (1) / 0
Mississippi (6-0; 4-0) - 6 (2) / 0 / 0 (2 incomplete series losses at [A])

Mississippi State (7-2; 6-2) - 4 / 3 (1) / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
South Carolina (3-1; 1-1) - 2 (1) / 1 (1) / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])

Tennessee (1-1; 0-1) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0

Vanderbilt (9-0; 8-0) - 7 (1) / 2 / 0

Total (49-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (35-5)
36 games won at the [A] bet (11 of these were incomplete series wins)
13 games won at the [B] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
0 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
1 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 6/11 (54%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 1/3 (33%)

Again,

three of the last four teams at the bottom of the alphabetical list are the least profitable.

Some notes about teams in this conference: Since 1989, Florida has not lost three consecutive games SU. Since 1985, Georgia has lost 3 consecutive SU games only once (1990). The one loss by Arkansas in 1990 was two years prior to playing an SEC schedule.

[A] games at the end of the season are only 4-6, but of the 14 incomplete series wins, 11 of these were [A] winners, and of those, 7 won in the second to last game of the season. So playing an incomplete [A] game is 11-6, for about 5 units of additional profit. Once the games go to the [B], they are only 3-2, giving about 1-2 units back. Also, we have had no series wins at [C]. This tells us that in all 5 [C] bets, those are 0-5.

Playing all incomplete [A] games shows additional profit, so recommend playing those instead of leaving them off and stay away from all [C] bets. Take the [B] losses and move on.

With the exception of the Big East, this powerhouse conference yields the fewest number of complete series opportunities, as expected. Noone in a major conference wants to lose three consecutive SU and ATS games.

usakangy says:

08/20/09 07:01AM

Today's featured conference is the Sun Belt. A young conference and one of the smallest of all Division 1-A football. Most lines go back to 1994. Some of the teams that have been around longer, have lines dating back prior to selection into this conference. The two Florida teams only data to 2004 as they are the newest members. Overall very profitable.

SUN BELT

Arkansas State (8-0; 6-0) - 3 (1) / 4 (1) / 1
Florida Atlantic (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
Florida International (0-1; 0-1) - 0 / 0 / 0
Louisiana-Lafayette (9-0; 7-0) - 7 (2) / 0 / 2 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Louisiana-Monroe (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0
Middle Tennessee State (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
North Texas (6-0; 6-0) - 4 / 2 / 0
Troy (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0

Total (29-1)
Record if not including incomplete series (24-1)
16 games won at the [A] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
11 games won at the [B] bet (1 of these were incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
1 incomplete series [A] losses
no incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 1/4 (25%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 0/1 (0%)

Florida International is the only blemish, losing in 2006 - that one fell by 7 points. Everything else has been perfect since conference inception. The [A] games on the last game of the season are 2-1, while the [B] games are 1-0. Not much data to go on, but overall, at 29-1, one of the more profitable conferences. Tomorrow, the WAC! Cheers!

chicano1 says:

08/20/09 08:51AM

GOOD WORK !!!

THANKS!!

SUPEREAGLE43 says:

08/20/09 09:16AM

Looks like LaBouchere would kick ass with this!

nolemonasses says:

08/20/09 01:05PM

Nice work kangy. That is a lot of screen time. If they ever allow sportsbetting in delaware and you make a road trip, I'll meet u and i'm buyin' u a beer.

S_A_I_N_T_S says:

08/20/09 02:07PM

Thanks again for all the work kangy!!

QBoption says:

08/20/09 03:20PM

VenomLugz says:

08/20/09 06:01PM

I just brought John Morris's system today but I want to know when he will sent email for his pick?

usakangy says:

08/21/09 07:28AM

The final installment of this series features the WAC conference. Covers data is sporadic on the teams in this conference, but a majority of the stats are complete back to 1988.

WAC

Boise State (1-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1995)
Fresno State (3-1; 2-1) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1988)
Hawaii (3-1; 2-1) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Idaho (3-0; 3-0) - 0 / 2 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], incomplete data prior to 1996)
Louisiana Tech (4-0; 3-0) - 1 / 3 (1) / 0 (No lines prior to 1989)
Nevada (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0 (No lines or incomplete data prior to 1992)
New Mexico State (6-2; 4-2) - 4 (2) / 2 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1988)
San Jose State (8-1; 7-1) - 6 (1) / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Utah State (7-2; 6-2) - 6 / 1 (1) / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Total (37-7)
Record if not including incomplete series (22-7)
26 games won at the [A] bet (7 of these were incomplete series wins)
10 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)
1 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete series [A] losses
1 incomplete series [B] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 3/7 (42%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 1/2 (50%)

The only bright spots I see here are LA Tech (4-0), Idaho (3-0) and Nevada (2-0) and the [A] games on the second to last game of the season go 4-2. Everything else is mediocre at best. When teams are bad, they are terrible. With the powerhouse conferences, a team can go 0-11 and still come up with series wins. The 42% above is driven mainly by the [A] wins that have come up on that second to last game. However, from a units standpoint, this conference is not the worst. As I will show in the next posts.

usakangy says:

08/21/09 07:31AM

Thank you guys for your thanks and comments. I believe LaBouchere

would work here. More stuff to come over

the next few days.

I feel like I've just graduated!!

Venom, wrong thread to ask this question.

usakangy says:

08/21/09 07:42AM

OK, one more correction.... Scratching incomplete series, the record is 28-7, not 22-7. I cannot add (or type) today. Just an anxiety rush this morning.

Here is the corrected post.

usakangy says:

08/21/09 07:43AM

The final installment of this series features the WAC conference.

Covers data is sporadic on the teams in this conference, but a majority

of the stats are complete back to 1988.

WAC

Boise State (1-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1995)

Fresno State (3-1; 2-1) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1988)

Hawaii (3-1; 2-1) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Idaho (3-0; 3-0) - 0 / 2 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], incomplete data prior to 1996)

Louisiana Tech (4-0; 3-0) - 1 / 3 (1) / 0 (No lines prior to 1989)

Nevada (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0 (No lines or incomplete data prior to 1992)

New Mexico State (6-2; 4-2) - 4 (2) / 2 / 0 (incomplete data prior to 1988)

San Jose State (8-1; 7-1) - 6 (1) / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])

Utah State (7-2; 6-2) - 6 / 1 (1) / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Total (37-7)
Record if not including incomplete series (28-7)

26 games won at the [A] bet (7 of these were incomplete series wins)

10 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)
1 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete series [A] losses
1 incomplete series [B] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins: 3/7 (42%)

Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins: 1/2 (50%)

The

only bright spots I see here are LA Tech (4-0), Idaho (3-0) and Nevada

(2-0) and the [A] games on the second to last game of the season go

4-2. Everything else is mediocre at best. When teams are bad, they

are terrible. With the powerhouse conferences, a team can go 0-11 and

still come up with series wins. The 42% above is driven mainly by the

[A] wins that have come up on that second to last game. However, from

a units standpoint, this conference is not the worst.

Next up, a breakdown in terms of net profit by each conference.

usakangy says:

08/21/09 08:55PM

This post lists all conferences in the order of profitability with the following criteria:

1) All series (both complete and incomplete) are considered.
2) A full series loss (a loss at the [C] bet) is counted as 1.00 loss (equivalent to approximately 7.7 units).
3) An incomplete loss at the [A] bet is counted as 0.16 loss (equivalent to approximately 1.2 units).
4) An incomplete loss at the [B] bet is counted as 0.47 loss (equivalent to approximately 3.5 units).
5) We use the JM method of betting, the Martingale. This ensures worse case scenario.
6) Unlike previously, losses of an incomplete series are figured into the losses and unit tally .
7) Overall records at the time of the beginning of the chase are not used in determining if the series should be thrown out (e.g. winning percentage for a team must be 0.375). I will run those numbers when I have the time.

ACC - 53.0 wins, 3.6 losses (+25.0 units)
MAC - 59.0 wins, 5.3 losses (+18.6 units)
Sun Belt - 27.0 wins, 1.2 losses (+18.1 units)
Independents - 19.0 wins, 0.2 losses (+17.8 units)
PAC-10 - 60.0 wins, 6.7 losses (+8.1 units)
Conference USA - 68.0 wins, 9.1 losses (-1.7 units)
SEC - 49.0 wins, 6.9 losses (-4.1 units)
Mountain West - 45.0 wins, 6.9 losses (-8.1 units)
WAC - 37.0 wins, 6.0 losses (-8.8 units)
Big East - 32.0 wins, 5.4 losses (-9.3 units)
Big Ten+1 - 58.0 wins, 9.7 losses (-16.9 units)
Big 12 - 59.0 wins, 9.9 losses (-17.2 units)

usakangy says:

08/22/09 08:26AM

Yes, The records for those top five conferences in all series went 9 wins, 2.2 losses (-7.9 units). For the entire season last year, I calculated, the teams went 27 wins, 2.8 losses (+5.4 units).

usakangy says:

08/22/09 09:11PM

I'm not sure about that one stickbit, as I didn't look at that from that angle. I designated the wins and losses as one of six types - win at [A], win at [B], win at [C], loss at [A], loss at [B] or loss at [C]. It would take a little time to sort through the mess and get you a fairly accurate overall [A], [B] and [C] record. However, I am working on a couple filters now for the data I have collected. I will let you know what I find. If I can turn all the conferences into a profit, I will post it here the system and the filters for the world to see - so it might be a couple days before I post again. That is because I am diligently working to increase our wallets.

usakangy says:

08/23/09 01:20PM

OK kbit, can't wait to see your plays for this system. Please back test for five years and let us know the results...

usakangy says:

08/25/09 11:40PM

CinderellaStory, to filter it would not be to make it a two-game progression. After all, I took this from Morrison's system. But I think Labourchere would work a lot better than the chase. For Labourchere to fail, would mean every series would have to go to a [C] bet. And that does not happen. Taking a quick glance at my previous posts, shows that in all conferences, there were more [A] bets won than [B] or [C]. So definitely playing Labourchere for all three bets is the way to go.

Now an update to my research:

In post #35, I had found that the total record for all teams playing ALL series (complete and incomplete) was 566 wins and 70.7 losses (+21.4 units).

Applying phase one of a filter, cut out most losses, but also filtered out a lot of wins. So far, 180 of those 566 wins were filtered out. However, I can say that 42.1 of the 70.7 losses were filtered out as well. Do the math at 7.7 units per loss. I am looking at 386 wins and 28.6 losses (+166.0 units) over the past 24 years.

Now I am working an anti-filter, to bring back as many of those 180 wins as possible!!! I am working a couple different scenarios of the anti-filter to see which one benefits us the most.

Will keep you updated!

usakangy says:

09/07/09 12:11AM

Still working on the filters. I have to go back through each team's stats a second time scanning for the requirements. I will definitely have this up in time to make the first plays. Cheers!

usakangy says:

09/23/09 09:24PM

Hi guys, I haven't been on lately, been very busy. I am still working the filters. One of the filters in place is a what I call a 75-point rule. This is when a team that has lost its previous three games SU by more than a combined 75 points. When this situation arises, we actually filter that play. However, the anti-filter I have been working on states that a filtered play becomes a play if the margin at which that team loses to the spread decreases over its last three games.

One example this week is New Mexico (which lost ATS by 19, 17.5 and 7.5 in its last three games respectively). New Mexico is considered to be improving against the spread with each game. New Mexico has lost SU in its last three by a combined 93 points and would originally be a no play. So now New Mexico is favored here. Also, according to the system, we are supposed to bet the ML on a team that is favored... I placed a cap on the spread at -10. So you should place a bet on New Mexico ML (if you get it) or smaller on -9.5 if you don't like the juice.

The other team, Miami-Ohio (losing ATS by 25.5, 9.5, 6.5 respectively) was outscored by its opponents in the last contests by 112). The Redhawks also fit this weeks scenario of a filtered play that has been anti-filtered. Miami-Ohio is +7.5.

I will track the stats using this thread. Since I am still

working on the filters, it remains to be seen if the anti-filter

would benefit us more by bringing back the wins (and some of the

losses) or just leaving them off.

So in JM's notation, the plays for this week would be:

NEW MEXICO ML [A] or
NEW MEXICO -9.5 [A] at smaller bet

MIAMI-OHIO +7.5 [A]

I will have a full explanation of the system in a few days. A couple people have already mentioned, it may be a good idea to play these using Labourchere. I will note all records as both series wins and losses as well as straight wins and losses. Let's start the season out right.

Cheers!

usakangy says:

10/01/09 11:30PM

I have the following for Week 5....

None of them meet the filters I am backtesting, so let's just go with these as is....

BUFFALO +7.5 [A]
FLORIDA ATLANTIC ML [A]
MIAMI-OHIO +28.5 [B]
NEVADA ML [A]
NEW MEXICO +34.5 [B]

usakangy says:

10/02/09 05:35PM

That's OK, I will make sure I get it back with interest.

usakangy says:

10/05/09 06:06PM

Yes!! We won 4 of 5 series this weekend.

YTD Straight record is 4-3
YTD Series record is 4-0 (1 pending)

Week 6 plays (Might want to wait a little for a line drop to catch a better payout):

BOWLING GREEN ML [A] at Kent State

Week 7 plays (October 17)"

FLORIDA ATLANTIC [B] at North Texas

usakangy says:

10/07/09 11:58PM

Yep, one game this week. The easiest way I found is to create a spreadsheet and track. I will see if I can post it to my ISP site and link a copy here.

usakangy says:

10/09/09 11:37PM

Here is a link to an excel spreadsheet with all CFB games through week 5.

usakangy says:

10/10/09 12:12AM

Let's try this one..... Click here.....

usakangy says:

10/10/09 07:25AM

Thanks Kevin, it's not too bad if it is kept up to date and you start at the beginning of the season.

KMang, let me know if you still cannot see this and thanks for the kudos.

usakangy says:

10/13/09 11:43PM

Sorcerer, thanks. I have corrected this mistake.

Arkadymo, to make this work with Labourchere, create multiple lines (maybe 2 or 3) since you will most often be playing up to 3 or 4 games per week.

MasterofBets, I accepted you.

Kevin, yes that 1.5 was a killer. I knew it was going to be a rough one, but then again, the basturds had to go for two, and missed. Had BG just kicked the XP, they win by 2. Sorry to all who took -1.5, but let's get 'em back.

The lastest sheet is up....

http://home.comcast.net/~usakangy/documents/NCAA-FOOTBALL-SYSTEM-SHEET-2009-WEB.xls

This week, here are the plays. Some of my filtered plays go into effect too.

1) AKRON [A]
2) FLORIDA ATLANTIC [B]
3) FLORIDA STATE [A] *
4) ILLINOIS [A] *

EASTERN MICHIGAN is NOT a play this week because of the filter. Yes, they have lost three games SU and ATS, however, one of the filters states regression teams as a no play, so we shall wait until next week to see what happens. Regression teams are those where they loss the ATS by a larger margin each of the last three weeks.

UNLV is NOT a play either, because of another filter put into place. This one states any team that has lost the last three SU games by 75 or more OR are 5 games below .500 in lines games must have lost the last three by a smaller margin each game. Let's watch UNLV for next week.

FLORIDA STATE and ILLINOIS are progression teams with no filters. These usually have won on the [A] bets more often than not. You could think of these are stronger plays.

usakangy says:

10/13/09 11:49PM

After reviewing the lines on the games, here are the final plays/suggestions....

AKRON +8 [A]
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2 [B]
ILLINOIS ML [A] *

Florida State is idle this week, so that will be a strong play for next week. Good luck all!

usakangy says:

10/14/09 07:13AM

Let me see if I can paint a basic picture. Say we have three games, two early and one late game and you want to you two lines. You would play the early games first on two seperate lines:

Ex. A.
X: 10-10-10-10-10
Y: 10-10-10-10-10

Game 1, you play a bet for 20 on the X line and Game 2, a bet of 20 on the Y line. If you play a ML game and lose, then spread the losses across all lines. There are many threads in the forum describing this modified labourchere method. So assuming Akron wins but Illinois loses, then Akron on our X line would result in the following:

Ex B.
X: 10-10-10

And Illinois loss since it's a ML bet, might be $38 for example. So, we simply spread any losses across both lines. Now they will look like this:

Ex C.
X: 10-10-10-19
Y: 10-10-10-10-10-19

Your next bet on FAU will be to win $29. I would play it on the longest line (Y). If it wins, then Y, looks like this. 10-10-10-10. If it loses, both will look like this assuming we lose $32:

Ex D.
X: 10-10-10-19-16
Y: 10-10-10-10-10-19-16

You can even play the "stronger plays", by selecting three from the longest line... So using the example D above, since Florida State is a strong play next week, you could play them using the Y line to win 45. The results would look like this:

A win:
   X: 10-10-10-19-16
   Y: 10-10-10-10

A loss:
   X: 10-10-10-19-16-25
   Y: 10-10-10-10-10-19-16-25 (assuming we lose 50 on a 45 to-win bet).

Hope this helps. Labby is only good as long as a great percentage of the wins are at either [A] or [B]. If all bets go to the [C] bet, then there is another management strategy for that, I don't know of the name, but you would place a bet to win three or four numbers on a line per game, but that would get out of hand very quickly. So far this year, all bets have won on the [A] or [B] bets, and historically, the system has done the same, so it looks to be profitable.

usakangy says:

10/19/09 09:23PM

The latest sheet is up....

http://home.comcast.net/~usakangy/documents/NCAA-FOOTBALL-SYSTEM-SHEET-2009-WEB.xls

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 7-4
Series........ 7-0 (1 pending)

Week 7 plays....

Florida State +2.5 [A]
Hawai'i +24 [A]
Illinois +10.5 [B] (recover the ML losses from last week)
Nevada-Las Vegas ML [A]

North Carolina State is idle this week

Teams not making the filter...

Eastern Michigan... after getting filtered out as a play last week, they actually improved on their ATS margin this time. However, due to the filtering, the ATS margin in their last game was not small enough to warrant a play for this week. Will watch it for next week.

UCLA... a regressed ATS margin in its last three games. The filter kicks in and we will have to wait until next week.

Vanderbilt... a regressed ATS margin in its last three games. The filter kicks in and we will have to wait until next week.

Good luck everyone!! Let's get the loot!!

usakangy says:

10/20/09 07:15PM

Skills, check out my blog for the filter system. You can find the system description listed there. I will post examples shortly.

usakangy says:

10/21/09 06:31AM

Montana, thanks for the info. I have backtracked the "PLAY THE LOSERS" scenario all the way back to 1985. The reason for any filters was because some teams, when they get on a cold streak, are really bad.... They have cost a lost of units. With only 30 units total for all teams through 24 years, I figured it was time to look deeper.

This year so far, everything seems to be falling into place. Last year was a great year too, going 24-2. However, I have not tested the "FADE THE WINNERS" scenario. How far back has the person tracking this tested?

I need to look for that thread, would be interested in seeing how far back, and if there are filters associated with it. Can you post a post a link either here or on my home page? Thanks.

kbit says:

08/23/09 09:35AM

Ok I have this system, it plays like this. Take a team that has lost 3 straight up and ats but only when the wind was blowing more than 15 mph in an east by southeast direction in all three games. Then play them on the money line but only if they are more than oh say -300 favorites at home on a thursday. And then chase them forever until they finally cover a spread. It works 100% of them time cause eventually they will cover a spread. Its the only full proof system out there. You may have to wager like 90K to win 4k but eventually it will work. Trust me.

Oh yeah dont forget to throw out game in which SEC teams play on Thursdays and any game where a team has a player charged with DUI or assault within 3 years. Best of Luck.

God I love chase systems.

stickbit says:

08/22/09 09:55PM

you are the man! I cannot thank you enough! We all appreciate the time and efforts you are putting into this. I bet this thing will be well worth playing this season. I don't know about you guys but I am pumped about football starting!

stickbit says:

08/22/09 11:45AM

Kangy - awesome work man! What if one were to just bet ea. of these a, b, c games straight for the same amount. Would that have better results?

stickbit says:

09/22/09 10:06PM

ok first weekend of NCAA system plays coming up! So we have New Mexico and Miami-Ohio correct?

stickbit says:

08/25/09 11:25PM

From looking at the research it still seems very profitable and a bit safer to only chase 'a' and 'b' games and taking a loss if b loses...thoughts?

stickbit says:

09/06/09 05:41PM

Hey Kangy!
I hope all is well man. Just curious if you had time to run add'l filters on this system. Looking forward to seeing how this does in a few weeks. Thanks again for researching this.

stickbit says:

10/03/09 11:55AM

so bottom line here is using lab system this thing is a winner?

stickbit says:

10/03/09 08:12PM

4-1

KMang says:

10/09/09 11:40PM

Couldn't pull it up...says the link was broken. Is it me? Or is it the link? Thanks for the spreadsheet Kangy. No idea how you guys find the time to put this stuff together....But I am grateful as always.

KMang says:

10/08/09 11:10PM

Kangy.....One of my favorite cappers on these boards. I did well with your CFB 2nd half plays last season. Good to see you still hard at work making us all better!! Thanks for the knowledge....it is much appreciated as always.

KMang says:

10/19/09 11:21AM

Kevin, that avatar is hysterical.

KMang says:

10/10/09 10:00AM

That one I can see...Thanks Kangy. Only play I've got today is Bowling Green at -1.5. I decided I was willing to part with the 1.5 for not laying the extra juice. This is highly unusual for me, usually I have about 8-10 plays on a typical college saturday!!! Restraint doesnt come easily for me. But there is no point playing a system if you are going to offset your winnings with losses on games that you are only playing for the action.....

we'll see how long I can resist.... + units will help

KMang says:

10/10/09 09:43PM

Please tell me I am not the only one on this forum who took Bowling Green giving the 1.5 instead of betting them on the moneyline???? I just wanted to save the juice and I figured if they won, the 1.5 would be a non-factor. Obviously it turned out to be a bonehead move!!

SdotStiz says:

09/24/09 11:15PM

nice

GameBoy7o2 says:

09/26/09 02:27AM

hopefully the system will work. im doing straight, parlay, and teaser with these 2.

1)NEW MEXICO ML [A] or
NEW MEXICO -9.5 [A] at smaller bet

MIAMI-OHIO +7.5 [A]

2)Parlay

3) Teaser 6pt
New Mexico -3.5
Miami-Ohio +13.5

we'll see what happens.

MontanaMax says:

09/07/09 03:31PM

Good one kbit........ Hahaha.....
As long as chases are backtested and are proven........
They are money over the course of a season
I always prefer filters to eliminate losses even though it takes out wins too and if the #'s add up between units won - how deep the the series go showing the strength of the sys - series losses and how many units it eats up and if each individual can stomache what they'e getting into, then lets rock
Otherwise if not........... ok
Hey usakangy.......... With all this work man kick back enjoy some bbq and ball games with the holiday......
Thanks man - good looking out

MontanaMax says:

10/21/09 07:31PM

No problem man.......
Thanks for the insight and having all of us prosper from your mistakes and hard work
I friend-ed you up so I can PM you the info and you can take it from there. I think you'll have a blast
To be honest I believe for the fade the winners portion this guy is only using the stated original parameters

Fade a team for 3 games that has won 3 su and ats in a row
The team that has done this you want to fade them up to 3 games either if your fade is a dog then take ats or if the fade is a fav then take the ML

I don't think he is using any filters
Nor he said that he back tested it at all
He said that he is not playing it but only tracking it for recording purposes
He has his own plays
My opinion makes sense for college fading the winners for many reasons
Only my opinion though
He's an old head there and carries some weight too so I respect that he knows what he's doing over there

MontanaMax says:

10/20/09 09:37PM

Kangy.............
Love the work
Elsewhere somebody else who is highly respected is tracking something somewhat similar to what your doing but with a twist
Same for the NFL
Next to the GM #'s is the units recommended for each play
Here it is:

PLAY THE LOSERS

GAME 2 -- 2.3* Illinois +10.5 vs Purdue

GAME 2 -- 2.1* Eastern Michigan +3.5 vs Ball State

GAME 2 -- 2.1* UNLV ML vs New Mexico

GAME 1 -- 1* Florida State +2.5 vs North Carolina

GAME 1 -- 1* UCLA +9 vs Arizona

GAME 1 -- 1* Vanderbilt +12 vs South Carolina

GAME 1 -- 1* Hawaii +24 vs Boise State

FADE THE WINNERS

GAME 3 -- 2.65* Nevada ML vs Idaho

GAME 2 -- 2.6* Virginia +4.5 vs Georgia Tech

GAME 2 -- 2.1* North Texas vs Troy

GAME 2 -- 2.1* Washington +7.5 vs Oregon

GAME 1 -- 1* Clemson +6.5 vs Miami-FL

GAME 1 -- 1* Kent State +10 vs Ohio

GAME 1 -- 1* Michigan +4.5 vs Penn State

GAME 1 -- 1* Kentucky ML vs La-Monroe

-------------------------------------------------

PLAY THE LOSERS RECORD (8-0, +8.0)

GM 1 -- 5-6 (winners were Nevada, Buffalo, UAB, Bowling Green, and Akron)

GM 2 -- 3-0 (winners were Miami-OH, New Mexico, and Fla Atlantic)

GM 3

FADE THE WINNERS RECORD (14-0, +14.0)

GM 1 -- 12-5 (winners were fading Auburn, UCLA, Michigan, Iowa,

California, Cincinnati, Stanford, Middle Tennessee, South Florida, Ohio

State, Troy, and Wyoming)

GM 2 -- 2-0-1 (winners were fading Boise St and Alabama)

GM 3

Figure I'd let you know
Applaud the effort man, thanks..........
Disclaimer......... I haven't played either yet but look to combining your plays with this fade this winner section too

arkadymo says:

10/13/09 05:29PM

Kangy, can you explain how this would translate to the Labourchere method? I understand the basics of it, I just don't know how to translate it to this system.

GMSI says:

09/27/09 02:33AM

0-2... short term loan to the books....

GMSI

LuckyEight says:

08/23/09 01:22AM

usakangy,

Tremendous amount of time spent...thanks for sharing the information. May you prosper always!

LuckyEight

nolemonasses says:

09/23/09 09:08AM

AS of today (Wed):

Miami of Ohio +7.5 @ Kent.

New Mex -9.5 vs. New Mex State.

sorcerer says:

10/13/09 06:09PM

First, Thanks for all the hard work. Now, not to nit-pick, but the (all games) spreadsheet for 10/10 showed USC-UCLA, when it should have been USC-Cal. Not a big deal, but thought you might want to know. Lines 549-550, I believe.

CInderellaStory says:

08/26/09 12:20AM

Thanks for all of your hard work man! I'm sure you have a lot of time wrapped up in this thing, so hopefully you'll come out way ahead by seasons end.

CInderellaStory says:

08/22/09 03:56AM

Hey Kangy,

Thanks for all the hard work!! Would you happen to know what last years record would have been had the top five conferences been played? Just for last season.

Thanks

CInderellaStory says:

08/24/09 12:56AM

Hey Kangy,

What do you think as far as MM goes? Chase or Labourchere? Maybe try to filter it down to a 2 game chase?

SKiLLsSoLoN says:

10/04/09 03:06PM

Yeah, good job guys! 4-1-0

SKiLLsSoLoN says:

10/11/09 01:44AM

I forgot to bet :(

SKiLLsSoLoN says:

10/20/09 03:19AM

I'm sorry but I do not remember reading any filters. Can you point me to this please.

Thanks.

SKiLLsSoLoN says:

10/17/09 02:20PM

GL Today guys!

kevin2565 says:

10/18/09 01:49AM

2-1 not to bad

kevin2565 says:

10/18/09 01:52AM

10/22 [A] Florida State

kevin2565 says:

10/20/09 03:19AM

Yeah had me cracking up

kevin2565 says:

10/20/09 03:21AM

Thanks for the post kangy

Lets pick up some wins

kevin2565 says:

10/11/09 02:42AM

I am sure you weren't the only one who did not take the money line. And to be honest I was thinking about not taking it my self but at the last minute I reminded my self that the system says take moneyline. Don't beat yourself up to much we will get them next weekend. Cheers to all who cashed in this weekend

kevin2565 says:

10/13/09 04:51PM

Week 7
[B] Florida Atlantic at North Texas +2
We got any A bets for this week?

kevin2565 says:

10/01/09 10:03PM

Nevada Wolf Pack vs UNLV
Florida Atlantic Owls vs Wyoming

A Bets for week 5 correct?

kevin2565 says:

10/04/09 03:47AM

Now that is a great college football weekend.

kevin2565 says:

10/06/09 10:45AM

Aww we only have one play this weekend?

kevin2565 says:

10/10/09 02:37AM

Wow Kangy great job on that spreadsheet. Must have taken quite some time and effort thanks for sharing that information.

flash021 says:

10/13/09 03:41PM

I have to say I took the 1.5 instead of the ml, I felt like a jackass when I saw the final score because I knew it called for the ml. Oh well, live and learn.

masterofbets says:

10/13/09 07:18PM

usakangy I send you friendship, I hope you accept me I have some questions for you:)

JSqd25 says:

10/07/09 02:13AM

Kangy,

What's the best way to track these picks? I have been doing it manually by matchup but it seems there could be an easier way.

Any suggestions?

hard8 says:

11/04/09 01:27AM

Been following this thread...

Thanks for posting

hard8 says:

11/07/09 10:36PM

I like it when the A bet hits

hard8 says:

11/21/09 01:10PM

I like all the picks except for SJSU.

It's at 2.5 right now and Hawaii needs this win in a BAD way. Hawaii needs to qualify for their own Hawaii bowl and this is the easiest team they're playing with Navy on deck and Wisconsin after that.

With you on the rest

BigPod says:

11/07/09 08:12PM

congrats on tulane and w kentucky. hopefully hit the other 2 as well.

usakangy says:

11/11/09 06:40PM

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 17-8
Series......... 17-0 (2 pending)

Here are the Week 11 plays (current Covers lines)

SAN JOSE ST +13 [B] @ Utah State

NEW MEXICO ST +18.5 [A] @ Hawai'i

VIRGINIA +4.5 [A] vs Boston College
KANSAS +3.5 [A] vs Nebraska - warrants a play this week

MEMPHIS +1 [A] vs UAB

MICHIGAN +8.5 [A] @ Wisconsin (optional) - only two games left

COLORADO ST [B] - idle this week

Rice is no longer on the "watch" list with their ATS win last week.

For optional plays, play smaller or use a labourchure strategy.

Good luck to all!!

usakangy says:

11/09/09 09:50PM

As we near the end of the season, I have started to weed out all the teams that will not make the system plays. I have counted 42 teams that remain as possible plays. For reference only, here are the teams. These are not bets or plays!!!

Arizona, Arkansas St., Boise St., Buffalo, California, Central Michigan, Colorado St., Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida St., Hawai'i, Iowa St., Kansas, LSU, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, New Mexico St., North Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rutgers, San Diego, San Jose St., South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Toledo, Utah St., UTEP, Virginia, Washington St., Western Michigan, Wyoming

The plays will be posted in the next day or two!!!

usakangy says:

11/06/09 07:45AM

Assphalt, PK is a pick'em. It basically means it is a toss up and you are betting that team to win straight up. If you notice on games with PK, there are no moneyline prices, because in essence, you are playing the moneyline. If you can get it at +1 at your one book for the same price as the ML (PK) price at the other, go with the +1 - it is a little better. But in all honesty, you are betting the team to win straight up.

usakangy says:

11/06/09 06:03AM

Some people may decide to use the lines for all sports. I use them for each individual sport for tracking purposes. The reason behind this is that you may have 3 or 4 NBA games, 3 or 4 CFB games, 2 or 3 MLB or NFL, etc. So with 3 lines, it can get pretty hairy unless your lines are extremely long.

The lines do not correlate to a specific "chase" game. You could have one line for each sport, for example. I have mulitple lines for each sport.

You just need to track them very well.

When left with one number left, play it by itself, or if you have two lines with one entry left, merge the lines. However, when a line disappears, it remains that way until all others are depleted before moving to the next level, and increasing your lines.

usakangy says:

11/06/09 06:33PM

It was meant as a guide for clarity, but you can adjust your lines to 15 or 20 and/or make the lines twice as long. For true Labby to work, you need to win better than 50% long term to clear the lines.

usakangy says:

11/06/09 06:36PM

Actually that win rate is 33.33%. So you need to win over a third of your games long term to clear lines in a true Labourchere strategy (playing one line).

If you win exact a third of your games, you will never clear your line.

usakangy says:

11/07/09 01:13PM

Again, here are the Week 10 system plays for the weekend...

COLORADO STATE +1 [A] @ UNLV (I took the ML)
SAN JOSE STATE +13.5 [A] vs. Nevada - get it at 14
TULANE +6.5 [A] vs. UTEP - get it at 7

WESTERN KENTUCKY +24 [B] vs. Troy

Good luck to all

usakangy says:

11/04/09 07:20PM

rm2673: This will not work exactly with NBA. The best I have seen is if you take a 4 game SU and ATS but I am still in the testing phases of that and not using it this year.

This is for another thread, but basically I would play 3 lines. Say your bankroll is $1000, use lines like this:
25-25-25-25
25-25-25-25
25-25-25-25

30% gain when you clear all three lines. On a loss for a game, distribute the losses and add to the last number... example losing 50. We distribute 17 across and add to the last number.
25-25-25-42
25-25-25-42
25-25-25-42

On a series loss, distribute amongst all three lines and add an extra entry:
25-25-25-42-30
25-25-25-42-30
25-25-25-42-30

If one line gets shorter than the others, I go after the longer line first. (next bet to win 55)
25-25-30
25-25-25-42-30-30
30

As an added bonus, when you lose 50 to make 40, you can distribute the 40 across the three lines (17 on each) and I like to add 1 or 2 to that number, so that I pick up additional dollars at the end.

Montana: My exit strategy is when a team has less than three games left, play about half the size and use labby if you aren't already. We get just as many wins in the last three games as we do losses of one or two, so play wisely.

usakangy says:

11/04/09 07:21PM

Thanks for checking! Good luck!

usakangy says:

11/04/09 07:24PM

When you clear all labby lines, you SHOULD be close to 30% increase. Therefore, after ALL lines are cleared, increase the lines 20-30%. 30's might become 35's or 40s. Live by the 72% rule. When you clear the lines about 2.5 times, you have doubled your money. Clear all lines 5 times and quadruple your money..... etc.

usakangy says:

11/04/09 07:32PM

72% rule is this.... If you increased your stake 10% every day for about 7.2 days, you will have doubled your money...

Day 1... Start $100, add 10%, finish $110
Day 2... Start $110, add 10%, finish $121
Day 3... Start $121, add 10%, finish $133
Day 4... Start $133, add 10%, finish $146
Day 5... Start $146, add 10%, finish $161
Day 6... Start $161, add 10%, finish $177
Day 7... Start $177, add 10%, finish $194
Day 8... Start $194, add 10%, finish $213

It is actually after 7.2 days, your $100, becomes $200.

So conservative money management would be just gain 1% on your bankroll every day for 365 days... (doubling every 72 days)... If you did that, you would have multiplied your roll by over 5x. (365/72)

Do this again, at the end of your second year, your $100 bankroll is now $2500 (25x)

After the third year, it is now $12500 (125x), you get the drift.....

Looking good to a lot of people, yes?

usakangy says:

11/05/09 07:51PM

It's probably right. The line has flip flopped like a teeter totter with Houston as a 1 pt favorite now. A lot of middling going on. Problem is, you cannot middle around a PK, since there are OT games now. Bettors must think this game will be close. Houston is on the road here. Ranked road teams have a tendancy to lose to non-ranked opponents.

With something like this, I might lean toward the over here. You can bet if a line is screwy, it is for a reason. Sounds like Vegas is begging you to take Houston, however, it could be a trap. I would not be surprised to see Tulsa take this one straight up, since they are playing with revenge. Just my thoughts. You should start a thread in the appropriate forum and see what the user community's reaction is.

usakangy says:

11/01/09 11:30AM

Fred, check elsewhere in this forum for those picks. I just took the NFL system and molded it for college (w/ filters). The NFL system appears to hold its own without needing the filters due to parity.

usakangy says:

11/02/09 06:23PM

Crane, thanks. I was late posting the plays that week. This was a Thursday night game. Yes, it was a winner, but the game had already been played by the time I had posted that week's plays (10/1), so I just omitted it.

usakangy says:

11/03/09 11:06PM

Thanks Mikey! Hope it continues to bring in the dough!

This week I found four plays. We are catching some poor teams at home this week and a decent road team with a chance to win outright!!

Here are the Week 10 plays...

COLORADO STATE ML [A] @ UNLV - normal play, may jump up as game time approaches. If the line flips the other way, wait until game time and grab the + points.

SAN JOSE STATE +14 [A] vs. Nevada - normal play. May want to catch this at 14.5 or higher.

TULANE +7 [A] vs. UTEP - filtered play with the 5 game under .500 and 75-pt SU rule, warrants a play on this team. This one scares me a bit, but try to catch 7.5 line or higher. If the line drops, buy to +7.

WESTERN KENTUCKY +24.5 [B] vs. Troy - last game between these two was close, let's see if it is close again.

Week 11 plays

NEW MEXICO STATE [A] @ Hawaii - IDLE THIS WEEK

Filtered teams to watch for next week:

Kansas - a regression team, therefore we filter it

for this week and watch this team for next week.

Rice - Meets the 5 game below .500 and 75-point SU losses criteria. The system filters do not warrant a play

on this team this week. Will need to watch again for next week.

Good luck to all! Let's grab the loot and celebrate another winning week.

usakangy says:

11/03/09 11:40PM

Yes, in your post! All I need is a red cape!!

usakangy says:

10/22/09 11:59PM

LOL, not my mistakes. Just those bad teams have cost a lot of people some units over the past 24 years. I only backtracked the JM system for NCAA earlier this summer and that is what I discovered. I accepted your friend request. Please send me the info. Thanks!

BTW, FLORIDA STATE won another game for us....

Series is now 8-0.

usakangy says:

10/23/09 03:37PM

Assphalt, I one buy up to a full point in your favor. Most times, college games do not matter. For large spreads, don't buy them. For small ones, like +2, +2.5, +6.5, buy upward. If you have a +1, you can play the ML for more. If playing the favorites, if you can afford the juice, play the ML for anything less than -10... Otherwise, if you have -3.5, -7.5, type numbers, buy down.

usakangy says:

10/25/09 11:47AM

Week 7 wrap....

Florida State +2.5 [A] - WIN
Hawai'i +24 [A] - LOSS
Illinois +10.5 [B] - WIN
Nevada-Las Vegas ML [A] - WIN

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 10-5
Series........ 10-0 (1 pending)

Assphalt, yes, the Florida State game was a winner.

usakangy says:

10/28/09 08:19AM

Crane, you are close. I am filtering out Tulane due to the 75-point SU losses rule and that team is not a progression team this week. I have also filtered out Rice for the same reason, and also due to it being 5 games below .500 SU. See the section in my blog for details on the filtering criteria. I just do not like these teams at this time.

So I have the following for week 9 (Sorry, somehow I got my week numbers mixed up).....

Hawai'i (no line yet) [B]

Auburn +3.5 [A] - Progression team + no filters = larger play

Missouri ML [A] - No filters, straight play

North Carolina State +9.5 [A] - Idle last week, no filters, straight play. Try to grab it at 10 or 10.5

UCLA +10 [A] - Filtered last week, unfiltered this week, ATS margin in last game warrants this being a play this week. Try to get it at 10.5

Western Kentucky +11 [A] - No filters, straight play. No points necessary unless you wish to wait to see what the line does.

Filtered teams to watch for next week:

Rice - Meets the 5 game below .500 and 75-point SU losses criteria. Non-progression team. Will need to watch for next week.

Tulane - Meets the 75-point SU losses criteria. Non-progression team. Will need to watch for next week.

Previously filtered teams (Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt) are taken off the board. They both covered last week, but we lose that opportunity. C'est la vie. It happens. If I had a dollar for every time I didn't play a game that ended up winning, I'd be a millionaire.

usakangy says:

10/28/09 11:10PM

Hey Montana, if you wouldn't mind, could you start an additional thread with that system? Not saying anything is bad, plus it will give me another thread to follow. Just that I know from back testing the "play the losers" scenario that there could be some losses in there. I would also think there would be more losers in the "fade the winners" depending on who you play.

Last year playing the "play the losers" went 23-2.... I am cautious about the "fade the winners" because usually great teams, continue to win. If you could backtest the "fade the winners" system for last year, that would be cool. Haven't had the time to do that yet.

Also, looks fishy when you fade a winner and the winner is a dog... Seems like the ML can get a little out of whack (See Nevada and Kentucky in your example). However, I believe we get more value by betting a loser to win on the ML than betting against a winner to lose on the ML.

Oh and yes, you are welcome in my thread anytime.

usakangy says:

10/31/09 03:48PM

Been in and out most of the day. Flipped on the tube and see three of the early games looking very good!!! Auburn is a crazy game. Hope you played that game a little more and did not get alarmed when the line jumped from 3.5 to 6.5 before game time. I just made another small bet before the game started on Auburn +6.5.

North Carolina State [A] wins
Auburn [A] has this one locked up
Missouri [A] looking good, still a half to go.

Looking at 3-0 going into the late games.

usakangy says:

10/31/09 11:49PM

Thanks to everyone on the kangy choo choo train!! LOL!!

Was a phenomenal day! Went 5-1 on the day!!

Hawai'i +28 [B] - Wins
Auburn +3.5 [A] - Wins
Missouri ML [A] - Wins
North Carolina State +9.5 [A] - Wins
UCLA +10 [A] - Wins
Western Kentucky +11 or +13.5 [A] - Loses (at least I didn't have to worry about what to do with this one!!) Dang Hilltoppers could not finish 'em off!!

for everyone!!

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 15-6
Series........ 15-0 (1 pending)

usakangy says:

11/22/09 07:29AM

I cannot say enough how ticked off I am that all of these games did not come through for us.

SJSU late fumble in the 4th to give Hawai'i a chance to kick the game winning FG, then the miss of that FG forcing OT.

Kansas hung tough but let it slip away late in the 4th as well.

Colorado State gave up the game winning FG to New Mexico with 12 seconds left in the game.

Michigan was the only game that pulled through for us.

eek 12 plays....

Colorado State ML [B]

Kansas +27.5 [B]

Memphis +23 [B]

San Jose State +3 [C]

Michigan +11.5 (optional)

Some new teams joined the optional play list yesterday: Washington State, Arkansas State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan.

Arkansas State and North Texas will play each other, cancelling that bet and Eastern Michigan is a filtered play.

Updating the Week 13 plays
Kansas [C] vs Missouri
Memphis [C] @ Tulsa
Colorado State [C] vs Wyoming
Washington State (optional) @ Washington

Totals so far this year
Individual............ 19-16
Series................... 19-1 (3 pending)   +11 units
Optional bets.......   2-1 (0 pending)   +1.2x units
     Michigan[A] LOSS of 1.0x unit
     Toledo[A] WIN of 1.2x unit
     Michigan[B] WIN of 1.0x unit

usakangy says:

11/23/09 07:15AM

All of these are last games for their teams. Two games are at home, so the seniors should play well in their last home game. The thing that all four teams have in common this week is that all teams are at the bottom of their conference leaderboards. With three [C] games the same weekend, tread lightly.

Order may be important.... you may want to play the games as they occur. As of this time, according to Covers, these are the times of the games:

Friday 2:00pm ET - Wyoming/Colorado St.
Friday 3:30pm ET - Memphis/Tulsa
Saturday 3:30pm ET - Missouri/Kansas
Saturday 6:30pm ET - Washington St./Washington

There may be one play for next week with Arkansas St vs. Western Kentucky, but that is only if the Wolves lose both SU and ATS this week against North Texas and the situation warrants a play.

Updating the Week 13 plays (with current lines)
Kansas +4 [C] vs Missouri
Memphis +15.5 [C] @ Tulsa
Colorado State ML [C] vs Wyoming
Washington State +24 (optional) @ Washington

usakangy says:

11/27/09 11:12AM

Thanks Kevin! We need to put these C games into the win column!!

usakangy says:

11/27/09 01:32PM

Let's do this fellers!!

usakangy says:

11/27/09 05:03PM

What a piece of work those Colorado State Rams are. They kick the go ahead field goal with minutes left, look to hold off Wyoming. Then on third down and long, get hit with a personal foul, late hit out of bounds on a Wyoming rushing play after already getting the first down. This gave Wyoming the ability to run clock and kick the game winner. Sorry guys.... Very pissed at the Rams. They blew a tough one last week with Hawaii, and blow another one tonight.

Let's hope Memphis can keep it close against Tulsa.

usakangy says:

11/27/09 05:27PM

Got my "States" mixed up. Last week's game was against New Mexico and that too was a last-second game winning field goal.

usakangy says:

11/27/09 10:00PM

Updating the Week 13 plays
Memphis +15.5 [C]

Colorado State ML [C]

(just a pitiful team)
Kansas +4 [C] vs Missouri
Washington State +24 (optional) @ Washington

Totals so far this year
Individual............ 20-17
Series................... 20-2 (1 pending)   +4 units
Optional bets.......   2-1 +1.2x units
     Michigan[A] LOSS of 1.0x unit
     Toledo[A] WIN of 1.2x unit
     Michigan[B] WIN of 1.0x unit

usakangy says:

11/28/09 10:34PM

Stick, I will consider that. Need to look at this again during the offseason.

Updating the Week 13 plays
Kansas +4 [C] vs Missouri - WIN
Washington State +24 (optional) @ Washington - LOSS

Totals so far this year
Individual............ 21-17
Series................... 21-2       +5 units
Optional bets.......   2-2 +0.2x units
     Michigan[A] LOSS of 1.0x unit
     Toledo[A] WIN of 1.2x unit
     Michigan[B] WIN of 1.0x unit
     Wash St[A] LOSS of 1.0x unit

This is the final play of the season. 21-2, goes the system. If the proper money management is used, the actual units will be higher. Worst case, I took 8 units for a loss. San Jose State and Colorado State screwed us this year. Last we I believe the system went 22-2 or 23-2.

usakangy says:

11/14/09 10:32PM

A brutal day today in College Football. Seems like nothing went right today!!! Temporary loan to the books.

Here are the Week 11 plays

SAN JOSE ST +13 [B] (loses cover late)

VIRGINIA +4.5 [A]
KANSAS +3.5 [A] (another late loss)

MEMPHIS +1 [A]

MICHIGAN +8.5 [A] (gave up in the 4th)

NEW MEXICO ST +18.5 [A] - PENDING

Will update later on with the records...

usakangy says:

11/19/09 08:14AM

With Buffalo winning SU and ATS last night, there are 9 additional possible plays remaining - all of them being optional, which means the plays not marked optional below are the last full complete plays for the season.    I have also begun tracking optional plays and I've also listed units won (the optional plays will be relative to your bet). This will become clearer in the next few weeks. Let's go San Jose State... Let's cover that +3.

Totals so far this year
Individual............ 19-12
Series................... 19-0 (4 pending)     +19 units
Optional bets.......   0-1 (Michigan [A])   -1x units

Week 12 plays....

Friday night

Toledo -19.5 [A] - optional (2 games left).
If you bet the Michigan [A] last week, and want to bet this one, bet to recoup those losses plus about 20%. Do not double up.

Saturday

Colorado State ML [B]

Kansas +27 [B] - if this goes to +28, grab it there.

Memphis +23.5 [B] - wait, if you can, to catch this at +24.

San Jose State +3 [C] - catch it at +3.5 if you can.

Michigan +11.5 [B] - Let's

wait until the Toledo game completes to adjust our wagering. If you

don't play Toledo[A] on Friday, bet this game to recoup your Michigan

[A] loss last week plus 20%. This is Michigan's last game of the

season.

Arkansas

State filtered (regression team) - Will have to wait until next week

for consideration as an optional play. I have not liked them as of

late anyway.

If you pushed Virginia or New Mexico State last week, just skip the series, but it is up to you...

Let's clear some stuff off our board.... Good luck to all!!

usakangy says:

11/19/09 08:41PM

The Toledo line is -16.5. Public pounding Eastern Michigan! Might be a good thing! May wait until game time to pull the trigger...

usakangy says:

11/21/09 04:44AM

Another winner with Toledo covering at both -19 and -16, therefore it is a win.... The way I will calculate the optional bets will be this way, since you made a bet for X on Michigan[A] last week and lost, then made a bet for X plus 20% and won with Toledo[A], the profit is 20% of your original Michigan bet (expressed as 0.2x). If x is the original unit size on normal games, you'd be up an additional 20% of an original bet.

Totals so far this year
Individual............ 19-12
Series................... 19-0 (4 pending)   +19 units
Optional bets.......   1-1 (0 pending)   +0.2x units
     Michigan[A] LOSS of 1.0x unit
     Toledo[A] WIN of 1.2x unit

Week 12 plays....

Friday night

Toledo -19.5 [A] - winner for +1.2x units

Saturday

Colorado State ML [B]

Kansas +27.5 [B] - if this goes to +28, grab it there.

Memphis +23 [B] - grab this now, line is dropping.

San Jose State +3 [C] - catch it at +3.5 if you can.

Michigan +11.5 [B] (optional) - If you

didn't play Toledo[A] on Friday, bet this game to recoup your Michigan

[A] loss last week plus 20%. If you did play Toledo[A], then bet this game for the same amount you lost on Michigan[A] last week. Going forward, I won't muddy the waters, but for sake of my posts I am assuming each and every optional bet is played, that's how I will arrive at a final total for this system. Right now, optional bets are up 20% of the "optional" bet size, which should be smaller than the regular bet size.

Let's clear off the final 4 regular plays for the season and finish a perfect 23-0!!!

usakangy says:

11/21/09 05:07AM

With Eastern Michigan's loss, they become a filtered play due to the 5-game under .500 and the 75-pt SU rules. Their ATS trend does not warrant a play for their final game next week, so they are pulled off the board for the season.

This leaves the following teams that still have possible plays...

Arizona, Arkansas State, Colorado State[B], Duke, Kansas[B], Maryland, Memphis[B], Michigan[b], North Texas, San Jose State[C], South Florida, Texas A&M, Washington State, Wyoming

usakangy says:

11/15/09 07:28AM

A brutal day today in College Football. At least we finish 2-4 with the two winners covering by 1/2 point each. Seems like everyone just quit on us late. Very scary day! If you pushed these games, you can consider playing the same bet next week on these teams. My thought is... if you push on an [A] game, pass on the series.

Here are the Week 11 plays

SAN JOSE ST +13 [B] (loses cover late)

VIRGINIA +4.5 [A] (wins by 1/2 point) - some pushed
KANSAS +3.5 [A] (another late loss)

MEMPHIS +1 [A]

MICHIGAN +8.5 [A] (gave up in the 4th)

NEW MEXICO ST +18.5 [A] (wins by 1/2 point) - I had this at 20, but early bettors may have pushed at 18.

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 19-12
Series......... 19-0 (5 pending)

With three weeks remaining in the season, there are 18 teams

that remain as possible plays. For reference only, here are the

teams. These are not bets or plays!!!

Arizona,

Arkansas St., Buffalo, Colorado St., Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Kansas, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, North Texas, San Jose St., South Florida, Texas A&M, Toledo, Washington St., Wyoming

With this said, I can unofficially release Week 12 plays....

Colorado State [B]
Kansas [B]
Michigan [B] - for those betting the [A] game (1 game left)
Memphis [B]
San Jose State [C]
Toledo [A] - optional (2 games left)

Arkansas State filtered (regression team) - Will have to wait until next week for consideration as an optional play. I have not liked them as of late anyway.

I will release the plays with lines later in the week.

usakangy says:

11/21/09 11:17AM

Kmang

NGU says:

11/14/09 02:45AM

730champ says:

11/27/09 05:07PM

i thought this was a sign to stay away right before tip-off

730champ says:

11/27/09 05:07PM

memphis playing tough in the first half

730champ says:

11/27/09 01:49PM

did anybody just get that sudden drop in the colorodo state game on the spread and ml

730champ says:

11/27/09 01:50PM

did somebody get confirmed out or something dropped half a point and ten cents on the ml..... hmmm

730champ says:

11/27/09 02:00PM

game is scary i hope they didnt give up because the coach already knows he is fired.. memphis is brutal they have covered one game all year

730champ says:

11/27/09 11:38AM

memphis and colorodo state play today fellas and we got a better number on memphis

fred69 says:

11/01/09 08:51AM

Great day!! goin 5-1 been watching these plays for a couple weeks now very impressive bet themsingle aand in a parlay just about had it any picks for NFL using this system??????

DAWGPRINT says:

12/04/09 10:02PM

Hey Kangy - Haven't seen you all year! Hope you're doing well!

BOL bro!

ketut says:

10/31/09 09:05AM

?? Am I wrong, I thought the bet is Hawaii,not Nevada? Or am I not understanding this?

stickbit says:

11/03/09 02:00PM

wondering if this type of system could be applied elsewhere....such as college hoops?

stickbit says:

11/28/09 01:18PM

Something that worked for me yesterday that we might want to explore in the future is teasing 2 C games when they come up on the same week. I did a 2 game 7 pt teaser on Col St and Memphis and that hit... Difficult thing was trying to determine if I should have done a 3 teamer and included Kansas.

Rakraider says:

10/29/09 12:58AM

Kangy, what's going on? I 've been following the past couple of weeks and I too appreciate the work you put into this.

It seems the system is doing pretty well w/ the NFL as well except for the Titans which I think get it done this week.

MikeyFingers says:

10/31/09 03:42PM

Awesome day for the system so far. I count 3-0:

NC State +10 (WINNER!)

Auburn +5.5 (WINNER!)

Mizzou ML (WINNER!)

UCLA +10 (Pending)

Western Kentucky +13.5 (Pending)

Hawaii +29 (Pending)

Thanks Kangy.

MikeyFingers says:

11/03/09 05:27PM

What are the plays for this week? This system rules. Thanks.

KMang says:

10/31/09 08:05PM

this thread...... Keep it up!

KMang says:

10/28/09 09:36AM

Thanks Kangy....love this system and appreciate all of the hard work you are doing here by researching the filters.

Unfortunately, I cancelled out my winnings last week by throwing some money on the "Fade the Winners" plays too. Its amazing how when you get too cute you can turn a winning week into a losing one....I am thinking for this week at least, I am going to remain monogamous.

KMang says:

10/23/09 09:52AM

Max,

you playing all of those games you listed there?

KMang says:

11/14/09 11:29PM

This was a frustrating as hell day of College Football.

Thank goodness this is a chase system...I cant wait to root for some of these teams again next week!! Good news is that we will be getting lots of points!

NMSU looks incredibly inept so far too...so that should be the fitting end to such a day. Like Kangy said....its a temporary loan. Next week we return to our winning ways....

KMang says:

11/21/09 09:26AM

Nice Toldeo winner!

Today we clear some lines and make some . Thanks for the hard work Kangy. I am beginning to think there are 4 or 5 of you because you are all over all of the chases I play!

MontanaMax says:

10/22/09 06:10PM

Don't believe so
Up to you if you want to take the hook
I usually do on spreads to get that extra edge

MontanaMax says:

10/25/09 12:23PM

Great stuff Kangy with your card.............
Were you able to follow up with that info I have sent you?
Below here are the results from what I posted earlier following somebody else elsewhere

FINAL RESULTS

PLAY THE LOSERS (5-2)

GAME 2 -- 2.3* Illinois +10.5 vs Purdue -- WINNER

GAME 2 -- 2.1* Eastern Michigan +3.5 vs Ball State -- WINNER

GAME 2 -- 2.1* UNLV ML (-115) vs New Mexico -- WINNER

GAME 1 -- 1* Florida State +2.5 vs North Carolina -- WINNER

GAME 1 -- 1* UCLA +9 vs Arizona -- LOSER

GAME 1 -- 1* Vanderbilt +12 vs South Carolina -- WINNER

GAME 1 -- 1* Hawaii +24 vs Boise State -- LOSER

FADE THE WINNERS (4-4)

GAME 3 -- 2.65* Nevada ML (-625) vs Idaho -- WINNER

GAME 2 -- 2.6* Virginia +4.5 vs Georgia Tech -- LOSER

GAME 2 -- 2.1* North Texas +20.5 vs Troy -- LOSER

GAME 2 -- 2.1* Washington +7.5 vs Oregon -- LOSER

GAME 1 -- 1* Clemson +6.5 vs Miami-FL -- WINNER

GAME 1 -- 1* Kent State +10 vs Ohio -- WINNER

GAME 1 -- 1* Michigan +4.5 vs Penn State -- LOSER

GAME 1 -- 1* Kentucky ML (-600) vs La-Monroe -- WINNER

-------------------------------------------------

PLAY THE LOSERS RECORD (13-0, +13.0)

GM 1 -- 7-7 (Hawaii pending)

GM 2 -- 6-0

GM 3

FADE THE WINNERS RECORD (18-0, +18.0)

GM 1 -- 15-6

GM 2 -- 2-3-1

GM 3 -- 1-0

MontanaMax says:

10/23/09 06:46PM

Haha...... Find the flaws while on the sidelines and then attack learning from others F'ups.......... Smart.........

That's a good answer Kangy
Key #'s are keen to buy the hook but larger spreads don't have as much value but that doesn't guarantee us losing by a .5 of a point.

I'll be so mad (when not if) that happens

As long as the rest of the chase doesn't fail it would be cool

Kmang......
Yes I look to now - was on the sidelines before
Missed that Fla St. play last night -

Up to Kangy if he wants to add those other plays each week that I posted earlier for this week

He's going to work on them to make sure they fit his standards

I stand by them from where I got them from but again this is his show

I though I just add some sprinkles to the icing

Kohler..........
Yes Nyj is a ML play.............
Watch out though I lost 40 units on Phi ML last week alone against Oak
This isn't a strong match up for Nyj - could go either way
There are other plays but from what I see the NFL version isn't as strong in my opinion as the college version.
Don't want to disrespect Kangy in his thread by posting other plays following similar parameters - unethical

MontanaMax says:

10/30/09 07:48PM

Don't have the accessibility or time to back test the Fade The Winners version
Don't mind doing a separate thread with it but it would be just copying from another thread elsewhere and I kind of feel that would be cheap and unethical to do from the other guy putting in the work
Well at least we know where to find it
I will continue to play them
If anyone is interested just PM me and I show ya where

MontanaMax says:

10/28/09 09:49PM

Bummer yo........
That by itself seems solid so if you still feel queasy just chase out whatever you lost.
You'll get it back its cool - then you're caught up
Up to Kangy if he wants me to throw those other plays in too
Don't want to diss his thread
I'll PM you with where you can find those plays

MontanaMax says:

11/04/09 12:48AM

I suppose you have an exit strategy for the end of the season coming up?
I mean like not starting any new series with less then 3 weeks left in the regular season I would assume, right?
If you stated it before - my bad just too lazy this late to look back

I know......... excuses.......

...........................

jeffcar says:

11/15/09 06:08PM

win some lose some.....let's get it done next go 'round....thanks for keeping the posts going.

MeekerMadMan says:

10/23/09 12:36AM

yet another win... did anyone bet on UTEP last night?

rich allen gave us a play.... and it paid off!!

good luck this weekend!

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

10/22/09 06:50PM

Thanks Mon
GL

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

10/22/09 08:14AM

should you buy points on any of these or bet them the way they are?

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

10/22/09 08:16AM

meant to Quote this one,
should you buy points on any of these or bet them the way they are?

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

10/24/09 06:48AM

Thanks Kangy, did you guys win Fl. St. bet or did it go to B bet? I didn't know they played collage FB on Thur. nights so I missed that one.
my book is showing OFF for UNLV on the money line, does that mean there not offering that or has it not came out with the odds yet.

Thanks Deb

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

10/31/09 10:10AM

That's what I got, Hawaii is bet B, one of my books is offering +27.5 and one is offering +28 if I got it right I go with +27.5 and don't buy any points

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

11/06/09 07:09AM

I'm not sure what to do about Col. St. one book is offering +1 while another is offering PK, what is PK? you would think these books would have a FAQ for these questions.

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

11/06/09 07:56AM

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL says:

11/11/09 02:33PM

So far we got Colorado St and San Jose St as B bets

deutscher says:

11/06/09 10:22AM

What book are you using? If they dont have a comprehensive FAQ section with live help to answer your Q's they dont want your money!

cranemonkey says:

11/02/09 01:52AM

BOOOYAAA !!!!!! i will take that to the bank every week, kangy if you would please add uab to the win colum from our first week of plays it was a winner also, my bad i forgot to post it..

Fred check out on3 thread on nfl system, its also undefeated!!

Kangy check this out on nfl on3 trying a twist if a team is above 500 instead of waiting on the 3rd loss before starting a series, play game three as A game. we have missed about 8 or 9 (they have all covered before going to the C game) plays waiting on game 3 to be a loser. giants and bears were the plays today, giants lost bears won. now B game for nyg. sorry to talk nfl on your thread but thought you might like info, im going to try and and backtest some of this for ncaa maybe it will help us make some moooolaa!!!!

cranemonkey says:

11/05/09 09:01PM

thanks for your insight k! think i will leave it alone and focus on our system, thats usually when i make bad decisions when i stray !!! lol lol

cranemonkey says:

11/05/09 07:30PM

kangy,

need your help here, this doesnt apply to the system and i apologize in advance for posting here. did you see the line on the houston and tulsa game? tulse is the favorite!!!! i would think houston would be a 10 to 14 pt fav. is this a mis print or am i missing something???????? help thanks

cranemonkey says:

10/28/09 10:57PM

kangy, thanks for the input

i dont post alot (due to work) but read your thread everyday and really appreciate all the effort you put into helping others like me. lord knows i can use all the help i can get lol!!! . also Kevin2565 thanks for your responce too . now lets make some more cash.

cranemonkey says:

10/28/09 12:14AM

kangy, is this what u have for this week?

hawaii (b)

auburn (a)

mizzu (a)

n.c. state (a)

tulane (a)

ucla (a)

western kentucky (a)

??????

kevin2565 says:

10/28/09 01:50AM

I don't want to answer for Kangy but I know hes a busy Guy according to my records they are all A bet plays and Hawaii is our only B bets play.

7 NCAA Bets

kevin2565 says:

10/28/09 10:14AM

kevin2565 says:

10/27/09 10:10PM

10/31 [B] Hawaii over Nevada Wolf Pack [Lines not out]

kevin2565 says:

10/31/09 07:18AM

Kinda shaky about making that Nevada B bet. There quarterback is pretty sick and against a team like Hawaii.

But then again the systems been rock solid so far why question it now.

kevin2565 says:

10/31/09 08:23PM

Yeah i meant bet on hawaii sorry if I confused anyone. Glad I made that bet. Great weekend guys 5-1

Lets get our NFL C bet tomorrow

kevin2565 says:

10/31/09 08:24PM

YES I AGREE

kevin2565 says:

11/04/09 12:04AM

Yeah I would

kevin2565 says:

11/03/09 11:13PM

Did I ever tell you that you are my hero!?

kevin2565 says:

11/11/09 09:08PM

kevin2565 says:

11/11/09 09:09PM

Sorry for the double post again

kevin2565 says:

11/10/09 11:08AM

Cheers

kevin2565 says:

11/14/09 12:09PM

Lets get some more winners today

kevin2565 says:

11/14/09 11:42PM

Every system has its days, this is when proper MM is put to the test. Even after a losing day I realize that this only means one thing...More bets next weekend

kevin2565 says:

11/15/09 12:09PM

Thanks kangy

kevin2565 says:

11/27/09 01:45PM

Just got the memphis line at 16.5 going to buy a point to get 17 and the hook lets hope I wont have to use it BOL

kevin2565 says:

11/26/09 10:56PM

Lets have a good weekend

kevin2565 says:

11/21/09 02:04PM

Makes a good point

JSqd25 says:

11/14/09 02:40PM

Thanks for all your hard work Kangy!

Kohler says:

10/23/09 03:27PM

What have you got for Sunday's games.

Looks like the Jets - ML to me. Any thoughts or reasons not to?

MoneyManager09 says:

11/10/09 12:44PM

glad to see Buffalo and Rugters for these week days play. I know its not a play or lean but its good to see a possibility.

rm2673 says:

11/06/09 01:07PM

wow so assuming you have 1000 BR, isn't 50 too much? that is 5% of your total BR.

rm2673 says:

11/03/09 11:58PM

if i decide to jump in this week, do i play western kentucky as game A against troy even though according to the system it is already game B?

rm2673 says:

11/04/09 12:08AM

would this work for the NBA as well?

rm2673 says:

11/04/09 12:28AM

I have some general questions on the Labourchere method. Hopefully kangy or someone can answer these.

1. How do we determine how many lines we play with? Is it up to us or does it depend on the number of games I will be wagering on? What is the benefit of having multiple lines?

2. Is there a rule that dictates what game we put on which line? Can I put 2 games on one line and none the second line?

3. Assuming I am doing 2 lines:
X: 10-10-10-10-10
Y: 10-10-10-10-10

and I win 3 wagers straight I would get this:
X: 10
Y: 10-10-10
Would I say that I cleared line 1?
Do I have to clear both lines to move up a level relative to my BR or are they independent?

How much should I move up from one level to next?

rm2673 says:

11/06/09 12:44AM

so the lines don't correlate with games A, B, and C? ie I can play a A game on line 2?

and what happens when there is one number left in one of the lines?

can i use the same lines for ncaa football and the NBA games for instance?

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User:	usakangy
Joined:	July 2006
Location:	United States
Team:	New Orleans Saints
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