Posted Friday, October 24, 2008 03:59 PM
People around here seem to think that results of football games could have only happened that one way. Even after a game is over, it is foolish to believe that the game you just watched couldnt have gone a totally different direction, under the exact same circumstances. Understanding this is a key to sportsbetting.
I make the metaphor of a ball hopper. Now lets say there are 100 balls, each one has a possible result of a specific game. This is the same as saying if that game was played 100 times, these are the most likely outcomes. All of these balls go in to the hopper, it is spun, and one is picked out that determines the result.
Your goal, and the product of whatever method you use, should be to have more balls on your side of the spread than on the other side of the spread. So in any given game, if you can have 60 balls on one side of the spread, and 40 on the other, you are in good shape.
So now pretend there is one of these hoppers on a table for every game on the schedule. You walk up and are asked if you want to bet on the outcome being on one side or the other of the spread, and you can bet whatever you want. In the first hopper you have 60 balls in your favor, second hopper 55, and third 52. You would probably vary your bets accordingly and bet more on the 60 ball hopper.
The problem is that people bet WAY too much on the 60 ball hopper, and fail to consider that there are still 40... [More]