vanzack's Blog

Strategic Mortgage Defaults and the future of our economy....

By vanzack | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 12:00 PM   20 comments

Im not a financial expert, but I try and follow this stuff to the point that I can talk intelligently about it. 

I dont understand how the stock market goes up, while jobs go down and more importantly housing has the land mine of strategic mortgage defaults on the horizon exploding.

This is a good article about it.

Estimates are that between 20% and 33% of homes are underwater.  I believe that the shame and guilt of the homeowners are what is keeping them paying their mortgage - but I do also believe that that is wearing away - and more and more will just make a financial decision to walk away from their homes - effectively ruining the housing market which in turn will sour the economy.

These are not people who cant afford to pay their mortgage - these are people who simply CHOOSE not to pay their mortgage based on a smart business decision - sell their good credit for what could be hundreds of thousands of dollars. 

I have a buddy who bought a condo 3 years ago for 200K, and it is now worth 35K.  I went through the process with him over the last year - at first he was sure he would pay, then he started wondering more about it, and just last week he decided to walk.

Does anyone have thoughts about this?  I cant see how the economy can possibly recover with this looming on the horizon like a fart in a spacesuit.

20 comments
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vanzack says:
01/28/10 12:18PM

Condos in Orlando are silly.  New buildings with 2 BR 2 bath 1200 square feet - going for 30K!!  Problem is the association fees, bankrupt associations, bldgs with 10% occupancy etc.....

Since this thread started - the markets have gone way down - down again today....  I think it has a long long way to go down.

vanzack says:
01/28/10 12:23PM

The other amazing thing that happened in Orlando was Condo Conversions.....

Tons of apartment complexes decided to cash in about 3 years ago, and started to sell their regular rental units to buyers.  Problem is, the market crashed halfway though - so now you have 400 unit complexes that are half rentals and haf condos - the condo people are fucked because of high fees and nobody wants their condo because their neighbors are renters.

I went to one of these places when they started converting back in 06 - big circus atmosphere - people were buying on day 1 for 300K for the same condo that is now 30K....

help says:
01/28/10 12:35PM


this is all relative to our currency. our currency was intentionally weakened/diluted over most of 2009. it's called quantitative easing, where the central bank finances the gov't operations by purchasing debt from the treasury, which is normally sold at auctions to other interests/parties.  that's why gas went from 1.50 to 3.00, and that's why the stock market went from 6k to damn near 11k.  everything requires energy, and with gas twice as expensive, it takes twice as many dollars to do the same tasks now as it did a year ago. simple math here. google ZIRP zero interest rate policy. Japan went thru the same situations we have been, only they did 20 years ago. they tried many of these same 'solutions' and it has doomed them ever since. we were (us economists) very critical of their actions when they were doing them, and now we just follow suit.

before you get all happy next time the stock market goes up, price it in gasoline. everything everywhere is dependent on oil, so oil being our primary source of energy, is the best measure of comparison for cost/prices. if oil dried up over night, so would food and the majority of the human race, as we are all overly dependent on oil for everything that we do.

our currency has seen recent strengthening for a couple of reasons. massive problems in #2 economy in the world Japan. Mass election results, followed up with talks about gov't spending less money,,,,,,,


US On Path Of Japan

The

US is on the same path as Japan (with a lag), something I have said

repeatedly for years. However, Japan's path is about ready to veer, and

Japanese government bonds will soon be in trouble.

Let me rephrase that. Japanese government bonds are in trouble.

Japan,

the nation of savers is about to start drawing on those savings. And

there is no way Japan will be able to finance its long-term debt at

1.4%. Indeed, Japanese government bonds are in much deeper trouble than

US treasuries at this point.

Kyle Bass says the US has 10-12

years to right the ship; I think 5-10 years (but closer to 5 than 10).

Even if it's only three years, it's not today's worry. See Worry Over the US$ and PIIGS for further discussion and comments from Marc Faber.

In

the meantime, the pending collapse of Japanese government bonds will

not be good for the carry trade, but should benefit the US dollar. In

fact, there are many things good for the US$ here.


link <-----mish i like reading him

MaineRoad says:
01/28/10 02:57PM
That article uses a pretty extreme example. Heck, anyone who continues to pay a $600K mortgage on something worth $200K is an idiot. It would be interesting to know how many of these under-water mortgages invovle such "no brainer" defaults.
JimRockford says:
01/28/10 05:41PM
what i never understood was how come 10K in house improvements, landscaping, paint, redo the bathroom etc..and someone apraises it as a 25k gain?
help says:
01/28/10 06:50PM


because everyone that's out to get a piece of your pie would just as soon have the appraiser say it's a 50k 'gain',,,,,more for the taking

who benefits from higher house valuations?

- governments that collect taxes
-banks that write loans and collect interest
- NAR n the realtwhores that steal their hefty piece of the transaction fees
-insurance companies because they can jack your rates

If you buy a house with intentions of living in it and using it for what it's purpose, shelter, you'd best keep your mouth shut when you do upgrades, because all they do is cost you more money

Homeownership is a myth. it should be called house debtorship. After you've utilized the tinder box that has been rotting in the sun for the 30 years you've been paying your mortgage and taxes, you get to have one of those parties where you burn your mortgage! YAAYYY! NO more house debt. But, you are still on the hook for property taxes and insurance, and no more mort interest deduction. And think of how much prop taxes n insurnace go up over the course of 30 years! THink of how much everything you buy goes up over time, 30 years

It's all a scam

By the way, if anyone reads SHadowStats.com, he has an interesting report that claims that USA just had 3 lost decades as far as wages are concerned. That's right, inflation adjusted wages in this country are exactly where they were 30 years ago.  Not old enough to know myself, but i doubt routine expenditures were anywhere near what they are today, and they didn't have 100$per cell phone, 30$ internet, and 120$ month satellite with 300$ nfl package and 200 MLB package. I know it's only 4500 per year in frivolties, but just sayn, with 30 years of flat wages it's no wonder everybody's broke


theclaw says:
01/29/10 09:03AM
I agree, all these morgage defaults will wiegh on the economy for saome time to come.

However, the stock market can still go up and has in many cases over history in economies that were less than perfect.

For the most part earnings drive the stock market, when stocks are cheap relative to those earnings which is the case today and earnings are rising the stock market historically goes up.

The stock market has risen quite a bit from last January, yet despite this , stocks are cheaper today then they were last january by quite a bit because earnings have risen much faster than the stock market has, and that is the perfect senerio for stocks to go up.

The other things going on in the economy won't for the most part determine if stocks go up, they may help determine "how much they go up" but not "if they go up".

There's been what, maybe about 130 banks fail to date, that may seem like alot, but the US has seen 70 banks fail in the best of economic times and just less than a measely 20 years ago during the savings and loan crisis of 1991 there were 181 banks fail and the stock market did not miss a beat, it continued to rise right on through all those banks failing.

Why, because stocks were cheap and earnings were rising !!!

lbcake says:
01/29/10 04:26PM

EOD closed at 79.47.

Giddy Up.

help says:
01/29/10 04:46PM
bizzaro world is where gas at the pumps peaked in January at 3$

the dollars last stand, if you are holding any, 2010 is the year to spend them.
lbcake says:
02/04/10 04:06PM
Can you say VIX ?
thejudge1000 says:
02/07/10 02:54PM
Can you say VIX ?

Yeah, no shit!

I work for a small No. Calif. lender. We didn't take undue risks in the heydays of '04-'07; you needed a paystub, employment verification, property appraisal, down payment, etc. in order to get mortgage financing from us. Our max LTV was and is 90%.

FF to early '09. Housing values drop 10-50% in our area. Unemployment near 12%. Many more underemployed. Obama Plan offers refinancing options for those whose mortgages are with Fannie and Freddie only. Bigtime lenders and servicers cannot handle the default volumes and start arbitrarily lopping off principal from o/s loans. Us little guys get squeezed. People who truly cannot pay simply walk away. People who remain employed and able to service their debt feel entitled to demand principal reductions solely because, hey, everyone else gets a bailout, why not me. We experienced the worst losses in our 40+ year history. 2010 outlook remains bleak.

Strategic defaults contribute to the glut of homes on the market, the reticence for credit grantors to lend, and the downward spiral of Americans' credit ratings. Much of our economic growth and PP since the '01-'02 recession was fueled by leverage. That's what will make this recovery so much longer to take hold than in the past. We will actually have to WORK our way out of it. Improving productivity and efficiency is a lot tougher than "no down payment, no interest and do not pay for 24 months".

MRSARATOGA says:
02/07/10 11:01PM
Everything you are saying is correct but you add one key addition. This presents tremendous opportunities for buyers and the properties will appreciate from there. People will always buy and sell.
help says:
02/18/10 08:08PM
people should now see how not only are these poor souls everyone was crying about since the election last year 'we gotta keep the people in their homes' complicent but they choose when they want to be ignorant

if you were stupid enough to overpay, like the guy in that story 600k for a house that's now worth 300k, how are you smart enough to realize now it's a good business decision, because two years ago you thought house prices would only ever go up and go parabolic forever, now you're sure that it will take 20 years to break even

the stupidity is criminal, i shed not one tear for any idiot that is underwater on their mortgage. sorry, if you shopped for a good deal (which were few and far between) and bought and lived within your means, guess what. YOU AREN'T HURTING NOW AND YOU AREN'T UNDERWATER. now that this slide into depression is in phase 2 of about 10, i understand that unemployment plays a role that some might not have forecasted. well if you did what you were supposed to, and had a good years+ rainy day fund and 20% equity in the house, you still aren't hurting. There are exceptions, so save it for someone who cares, but the majority are getting what they deserve

the banks as well, fuck them. walk from your mortgage if it's what makes sense, morals were drawn off the table back when lawyers like Barak Obama were suing mortgage banks to accept welfare as proof of income for a mortgage
yuice20 says:
02/18/10 11:00PM
If this is a stupid question please say so but if you do decided to stop making your mortgage payments, how long would it take before they actually come and take over your house?
glyde69 says:
02/18/10 11:12PM

I know people who haven't made a payment in 2-3 years.  Shame they all haven't saved a penny in the process.

Rush51 says:
02/18/10 11:27PM


That's pathetic..  People just taking advantage of the system.  It's the rest of us taxpayers that are paying the price for this behavior.
barneybeans says:
10/12/10 01:36AM
"I dont understand how the stock market goes up, while jobs go down"

The market goes up BECAUSE jobs are going down - overseas to India, China, Russia....

Things are cheap in those countries and technology is awesome (internet vid conf etc...) so instread of paying a US worker $50/hr, a worker in India will do the job for $20 because a loaf of bread in India is 50 cents and a beer in a bar $1, the Indian worker is happy as a pig in shot because min wage is $2 - that worker is making a killing.

The corp outsources all their jobs and the corp is saving $30 an hour per employee. So earnings and stock prices are up - problem is you don't own the stock and now the guy wh owas making $50/hr is out of a job so he steps down and overqualified, takes the job away from you.

Now that corp, a lage bank for example, buys their competitor and there is a merger and with that comes a duplication of systems, so lay off all off the workers from the other company and just plug that other company's customers into the buying company's existing system - just buy more storage and some more servers to handle the doubling of the load - double the sales and profits without having to retain all of the employees and take on the overhead from the "bought" bank.

Today's politicians and news chanels will never mention this 800lb gorilla: outsourcing. They will talk about how taxes (either side) is going to create jobs.

But the real problem is our jobs have already "left the building" and they continue to gush out to other countries.

So if jobs are sparse and salaries are not keeping up with inflation how is someone supposed to pay their mortgage?

Did the mortgage holders bite off more than they can chew? Possibly. I am not trying to defend the foreclosing folks but the real issue with everything is that Company X's customers are buying less and less because Company X's customers used to be Company Z's employees whose jobs are now over in India. So Company X in an effort to boost earnings for shareholders outsources their jobs to other countries.... They save on labor because sales are down.

The downward spiral is an outflow of jobs which kill the consumerism of the US. This affects the world. Who makes out? India and countries liek that whose stock markets have been soaring. The market and economy where I am is up a few 100% every year, unemployment is down, salaries are on the rise and foreign investment (your jobs from the US) are coming here. Large corps are opening up shop here and all over the rest of the world where labor is cheaper than the US

Move to India and stop whining, your country is not going to save you but rather turn their back on you because the politicians are all getting paid by the corporations and the corporations all work for the shareholders and that's about it.

Check out the 2004 town hall Charles Gibson moderated debate at Wash Univ (St Louis) between Kerry and Bush - both said they could do nothing to stop out sourcing. Why not?

Outsourcing and mergers and monopolies will have a few chapters in the book "How Larger Corporations were allowed by politicians to kill a thriving world's Economy".

This correction we are going through will recover - but the US will not be the same.

To bad I can't post my charts...

barneybeans says:
10/12/10 01:51AM
By the way I am an employed by the US citizen and tax payer and have never held a mortgage.
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