Posted Wednesday, December 09, 2009 11:35 AM
This is some basic raw data on the Big10's out of conference games and results. Do with it what you wish - I have some definite opinions about this and how to apply it, but until discussion comes out I just wanted to post the data:
Big 10 out of conference schedule, against FBS teams:
Big10 overall record: 21-12
Home: 16-6
Road: 5-6
VS:
MAC: 12-2
Pac 10: 1-3
Big East: 2-2
Ind: 2-2
WAC: 2-1
Big12: 1-1
ACC: 0-1
MWC: 1-0
VS Non-MAC Teams: 9-10
VS BCS conferences: 4-7
VS current top 25 teams: 1-3 (only played a total of 4 games against ranked out of conference teams)
VS current top 50 teams: 3-8
VS bowl bound teams: 6-7
Average computer ranking of 21 wins: 84 (out of 120)
Average computer ranking of 12 losses: 43 (out of 120)
10 of 21 wins came against teams ranked 100-120
Posted Friday, October 24, 2008 03:59 PM
People around here seem to think that results of football games could have only happened that one way. Even after a game is over, it is foolish to believe that the game you just watched couldnt have gone a totally different direction, under the exact same circumstances. Understanding this is a key to sportsbetting.
I make the metaphor of a ball hopper. Now lets say there are 100 balls, each one has a possible result of a specific game. This is the same as saying if that game was played 100 times, these are the most likely outcomes. All of these balls go in to the hopper, it is spun, and one is picked out that determines the result.
Your goal, and the product of whatever method you use, should be to have more balls on your side of the spread than on the other side of the spread. So in any given game, if you can have 60 balls on one side of the spread, and 40 on the other, you are in good shape.
So now pretend there is one of these hoppers on a table for every game on the schedule. You walk up and are asked if you want to bet on the outcome being on one side or the other of the spread, and you can bet whatever you want. In the first hopper you have 60 balls in your favor, second hopper 55, and third 52. You would probably vary your bets accordingly and bet more on the 60 ball hopper.
The problem is that people bet WAY too much on the 60 ball hopper, and fail to consider that there are still 40...
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Posted Thursday, September 25, 2008 02:40 PM
Lets take a hypothetical wager. I give you 30 seconds with each if 5 sportsbettors to determine if they are going to be longterm winners or longterm losers. You win if you can tell me with accuracy and you lose if you fail to predict it right. How would you spend your 30 seconds with each person?
I know what I would ask. It would be one simple question:
On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you enjoy studying for a game, betting a game, and watching that game?
From that single question, I can tell a lot.
I think there is a direct inverse relationship between enjoyment of sportsgambling and longterm profitability. Those that enjoy the process the most lose the most – and those that get no enjoyment win the most. Simple.
From my scientific double blind studies of covers posters – the ones that always get in to trouble are the ones who bet games because they love it. People who are totally emotionally removed are the ones who do well long term.
I guess this is similar to real life because emotions cloud good judgment, but gambling amplifies this to 11.
What do you think?