People around here seem to think that results of football games could have only happened that one way. Even after a game is over, it is foolish to believe that the game you just watched couldnt have gone a totally different direction, under the exact same circumstances. Understanding this is a key to sportsbetting.
I make the metaphor of a ball hopper. Now lets say there are 100 balls, each one has a possible result of a specific game. This is the same as saying if that game was played 100 times, these are the most likely outcomes. All of these balls go in to the hopper, it is spun, and one is picked out that determines the result.
Your goal, and the product of whatever method you use, should be to have more balls on your side of the spread than on the other side of the spread. So in any given game, if you can have 60 balls on one side of the spread, and 40 on the other, you are in good shape.
So now pretend there is one of these hoppers on a table for every game on the schedule. You walk up and are asked if you want to bet on the outcome being on one side or the other of the spread, and you can bet whatever you want. In the first hopper you have 60 balls in your favor, second hopper 55, and third 52. You would probably vary your bets accordingly and bet more on the 60 ball hopper.
The problem is that people bet WAY too much on the 60 ball hopper, and fail to consider that there are still 40 ways to lose that bet. They also will ignore 55 ball hoppers because they have predetermined rules such as "only one hopper per day" or something else like that. You want to have money on all hoppers that are in your favor, with correct variances in that amount according to advantage, every single time you can identify a hopper that is to your advantage.
Its very similar to poker. If you play poker, you know that you want to have your money in the pot when you have the best chance to win. Does that mean that if you have AA you are always going to win? Nope, but you have more balls in your hopper than the other guy has. The reason that you dont see the best poker pros winning the WSOP every year is because you have to beat that hopper dozens of times in a row, and the chances of you doing that in an "all in" situation are very narrow so it takes some of the skill out of the eventual winner. There is no reason to put yourself "all in" in sportsbetting. Ever. You need to come up with amounts of your wagers that will allow you to overcome the variance in the hoppers - but if you can identify positive hoppers you will always be profitable longterm.
So what I am saying is that you need to have a long term approach. If you are only going to bet on one hopper in your lifetime, then you have to decide your risk / reward. But most of this are long term hobbyists or people with the intent of being profitable - and you have to think about it as hundreds of hoppers. Your goal as a handicapper is to get your money proportionally wagered on the best hoppers, and always bet on hoppers that have better than 50 balls in your favor. On any bet you make, you will be very lucky to have 60 balls in your favor, and you will never have 90 balls in your favor. Leave that for the touts.
Over time, if you have wagered more on the better hoppers, and picked the correct hoppers, you will win money.
The people that point to one result and try to think in retrospect that they either capped the game right or wrong based on that result are flawed. That was only one possible result out of many. Yes, you may have been incorrect about the percentage of results that could have come your way, but you are no more right about your pregame thoughts after a result than before it, because a single result is not showing you all the cards in the deck. Thats why I never get worked up about a win or a loss. Last night I had Auburn, and I thought I had 62 balls in the hopper, so I bet 3 units. One of the 38 balls against me was picked. That is going to happen. But it is important that one pick of the balls doesnt effect your ability to take advantage of the other hoppers that are lined up to come.
This might seem simple, obvious, and basic - but bases on the threads and responses here - it seems like alot of people put their entire wad on what they think is a 90 ball hopper and then wonder why they are out of the game.