Posted Sunday, August 12, 2012 04:41 AM
For the past 3 weeks, I feel like I've been in sort of a funk in sports betting. With all the hard work and time spent in capping games, winning a little over 53% of your wagers doesn't show substantial profit when you're laying so much juice on favorites. I decided to change things up a little and challenge myself to not lay any juice in MLB for this upcoming project. The majority of the time, I'll be going up against the inferior All-Star/Fantasy pitcher. The key for me here is NO JUICE. All plays are 1U.
So on to Day 1:
Athletics - Colon +148: Two very hot pitchers on two teams reaching for the postseason. Give me the 1.48x
Padres - Ohlendorf +159: Can you believe the Padres have beaten the Pirates 11 games in a row in PNC Park? 11 games in a row! There's no way the Pirates get swept and drop 12 in a row against the lowly Padres right? I'll take my chances.
Indians - Kluber +145: Purely fading a once dominant superstar in Jon Lester. If Lester turns it around, so be it and take the cash.
Twins/Rays - Under8 +100: Big Game James (Shields is back). His last 2 outings have been lights out. Scott Diamond has had a quality start in 5.5 out of his last 7 appearances. I like a low scoring affair here.
Tigers - Porcello +128: Yu Darvish is over-rated, over-priced, World Baseball Classic hyped garbage. Yeah I said it. Garbage. If you look at the history of success... [More]
Posted Monday, July 02, 2012 10:38 AM
I only bring up this conspiracy theory because I hear a lot of people in the MLB threads mention: "The public is all over this team. Or too much money is on the Halos and Jerod Weaver over Cleveland tonight."
I can accept the fact that some games maybe fixed in other sports like boxing, NBA, College Basketball/Football and possibly the NFL.
But MLB too?
It's hard to imagine pitchers making millions of dollars to perform on a daily basis would throw games. If they throw games or suck, they're usually sent back to the minors. Maybe the umpires and the strike zones? Maybe a certain player gets a day off 2 minutes before the first pitch? Routine double play is purposely botched?
To think that MLB is 100% clean is being a bit naive. I mean history indicates that it's happened before (Black Sox & Pete Rose as minor examples)
When capping these games, how much should go into raw stats/weather/matchups alone? Should we really pay attention to where the public/squares money is going?
I guess my question is... Does Vegas have any weight into what happens in baseball games? I'd love to hear what you guys think.
BOL to everyone today!
Posted Sunday, April 24, 2011 05:36 AM
Greetings Sports Gamblers!
I want to introduce myself to the sports betting world once again. After 5 years of grinding it out online at the poker tables, my career came to a screeching halt due to recent federal issues with the industry.
10 years ago in my early twenties, I started out as a dime bettor during my years in college and recklessly built my bankroll to 150k in about 6 months. In a matter of 2 months, I went from +150k to having a downswing of -300k. I went through all the swings of your desperate prototypical sports betting junkie. Laying 10-20k with illegal bookies, calling sports "experts" at a premium charges, Vegas weekends spent at the Sportsbook, and going through all costs (family, friends, fiancee) to chase the money back. My worst habit was betting entire bankrolls on games because I was hitting 80% winners. Yes, I was really that good at picking winners.
If any of you watched the movie "Two for the Money", the character Amir would best describe my life 10 years ago. Riches to rags...
So why come back to the industry that almost killed me? With discipline, hard work, and doing your homework... I believe in the long term sports can be a profitable investment. Sure luck has a lot to do with these games, but you either know your shit or you don't. When it comes to NFL, NCAA Football, MLB, NBA, and NCAA Basketball, I know I'm more knowledgeable than 90% of the spor... [More]