walktheline's Blog

Posted Friday, November 23, 2012 03:50 PM

To the Powers That Be...

Dear Covers Media Group,
Go phuck yourselves, you've ruined a once outstanding website. Congratulations clowns, you've become the Myspace of your genre. Your arrogance is truly unbelievable. 
BetEd BetEd BetEd... you can't censor that. When a couple of long time posters had a problem with Tony from 5dimes for a 100% error in the Wrestlemania dispute, what did you do? You did a fluff piece on him, making him to look like he was correct on the issue - one in which he obviously was not. This was after he completely trashed your forum saying (verbatim) "Phuck Covers, post whatever you want and go crawl under that rock of a forum." Well played, once again. 
If all that wasn't enough, you've completely ruined the one redeeming quality this place had over everywhere else on the net, that being the best format/laid back laws/solid group of posters. What you fail to understand is THAT is what gives this place it's high traffic rate. It's far more pain than pleasure now. 
They way you've simply rolled the dice assuming that your loyal visitors will stick around as they have for years regardless of what you do to them is like being a wife beater issuing out another round of blows, only to kiss and make up. Thanks for giving me my avatar back honey!!
p.s. I promise I'll be good when I get out of the penalty box. I swear I've changed. You still love me, right honey? 

... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 20, 2012 10:11 PM

Boxing from Down Under

Shane Cameron, +120, 5 units to win 6

(4:00 am Wednesday bell time)

Posted Saturday, November 17, 2012 01:41 PM

11/17 Boxing

Not really "in love" with much this weekend at all. However, I do feel some of the totals are too chalk heavy and the wrong fighter is favored in the flyweight unification bout.
Bolonti/Bellew over 8.5, +155, 4 units to win 6.2.Bolonti is SLOW. He isn't going to win rounds, probably does have a puncher's chance though. He looks the part of a big, durable guy in there though. Bellew gets into a habit of "slapping" arm punches at times and doesn't really turn up the heat as soon as he should against over matched opponents. I don't think he'll have to change that as he can score at will and box to a very comfortable, cautions win.
Mack/Froch under 8.5, -240, 12 units to win 5.I don't think Mack is "in it to win it" at this point in his career. His chin is becoming increasingly fragile, and you really have to question his motivation. If Froch hurts him, he'll look for a soft place to land. Mack isn't a "blood and guts" type of fighter - he won't make much of a comeback. 
Broner ITD, -160, 16 units to win 10. This fight won't be competitive, whether or not Broner can actually stop him. DeMarco isn't busy enough to win rounds against Broner. He isn't very aggressive either. He'll probably be walked down and stopped in the second half of this fight. There are fighters that can give Broner a run for his money at or around lightweight, but DeMarco isn't one of them. 
Johnathon Banks, +335, 4 units to win 13.4I don't like Seth Mitchell. Nice story? Sure. Howe... [More]

Posted Saturday, November 10, 2012 11:26 AM

Saturday Boxing

Fairly large card today from around the world. As always, lines are courtesy of the fine folks at 5dimes...
Stanyslav Kashtanov, -300, 9 units to win 3.Mariusz Wach ITD, +1129, 3 units to win  33.87Taylor/Chakhkiev over 5.5, -155, 7.75 units to win 5.Barros/Garcia over 9.5, +140, 5 units to win 7Lara ITD, -110, 22 units to win 20.Moreno via decision, +202, 5 units to win 10.1Casarez/Angulo under 7.5, -270, 8.1 units to win 3

This week is very interesting to me, as I feel like I'm being forced to pick decisive results given the styles and/or lines of the fights. 
With that being said, I feel there is some very good value in Lara ITD. It's probably my favorite play, even though Lara isn't really a big puncher. That's fine, because Martirosyan isn't that good. 
He's sloppy and has been caught and dropped in exchanges by far inferior fighters than Lara. His footwork is sloppy and he turns into a mess when even moderate pressure is applied, regardless of the opponent. While Lara is a classic counter puncher, I feel he'll be able to dictate the pace and terms of this fight. Not a good thing for Martirosyan, as this is going to be target practice for Lara. 
Lara has a chance to make a statement here against a vastly inferior opponent, regardless of what it looks like on paper. I'm expecting him to get it done in a big way. ... [More]

Posted Friday, November 09, 2012 06:56 PM

Michigan St Will Pull Away in the 2nd Half...

Uconn came out shooting 9-10 from the field and dominated early. However, Michigan St is starting to dominate the glass and settle into their offense. Also, their shot selection has been far superior over the last 5-10 minutes.

In short, talent will tell in this one. Bet them live to come back and win outright, or simply bet them in the second half for an easy win. 

Posted Tuesday, October 30, 2012 05:43 PM

NBA 2012-2013

Tuesday, October 30th:

Wizards Team Total over 92.5, -110, 5.5 units to win 5.
Heat (-275)/ Lakers (-475) parlay, 15.5 units to win 10. 

Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 03:59 PM

Rare Large NFL Play

I rarely post my NFL plays here, but I want everyone to know that the Chiefs are going to dominate the Raiders. I know that the words "Chiefs" and "dominate" are often antonyms, but not today.

Easy win here. Chiefs -2, even, 20 units. 

Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 03:27 PM

Galaxy S3 "Dirty Commercial" During NFL Broadcast

Ok, so the NFL prides itself on being "family friendly" even though grown men are trying to physically disable each other every snap. That's fine, until I see the new S3 commercial where they are once again promoting the touching phones to share videos and playlists feature. Maybe it's me, but this is hilarious and ironic the NFL is airing it. 

Summary of the commercial: 

Dad is in front of the house getting into his cab to go to the airport, presumably for an out of town trip. His kids run out and tell him "Wait Daddy!! We made you a video to watch on the plane!!" He smiles wide and thanks them. He starts to pull out, only to be stopped by his wife now running to the car with her phone in hand. She touches phones with him and says "I made a video for you too. But I wouldn't watch it on the plane..." with her giving the "I swallow" grin.

Now I could give a shit less and know that kids are exposed to far worse in the real world. In fact, fake offended parents make me vomit. However, am I the only one that finds this commercial a little out of line for Sunday afternoon broadcasts? Subtle innuendo is one thing, but c'mon. Anyone else raise an eyebrow when you caught this commercial?

Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 11:58 PM

Late Tokyo Card, Saturday Tripleheader

A lot of mid-level boxing this weekend. I really like these many of these match from a wagering standpoint...

De La Mora/Iwassa over 7.5 +100, 5 units to win 5
Migaki, +175, 5 units to win 8.75
Diaz/Ao over 10.5, -155, 4.65 units to win 2

Herrera/Mayfield over 9.5, -215, 10.75 units to win 5
Dulorme/Abregu under 7.5, +200, 10 units to win 20
Dulorme, Mayfield (-550, -400) parlay, 10.5 units to win 5
Rafael Marquez, +135, 15 units to win 20.25 units. 

Posted Saturday, October 20, 2012 12:21 PM

Saturday Boxing

Huge card, complete with some early action. I would ramble a bit, but I'm pressed for time...

Andrea Sarritzu, +105, 2 units to win 2.1
Brook/Saldivia under 8.5, -240, 4.8 units to win 2
Brook/Anderson/McDonnell, 10.1 units to win 4

Kid Chocolate, -225, 22.5 units to win 10
Morales/Garcia under 10.5, +130, 20 units to win 26
Bailey/Alexander under 9.5, +135, 4 units to win 5.4

Waiting for a few props, but not sure we'll see them..

Posted Sunday, October 14, 2012 10:41 PM

Just Live-Bet Houston

+800. Every get a feeling of a subtle momentum shift? I have a feeling this goes down to the wire...

Posted Saturday, October 13, 2012 07:27 PM

Saturday HBO Doubleheader

Nice doubleheader on HBO tonight, two intriguing fights but for drastically different reasons. Everyone is expecting a war in the opening bout between Rios and Alvarado. I'm not so sure about that assumption...
I do expect a good pace, but a war usually requires two participants. I don't really feel Alvarado will be competitive in this fight. Both men are defensively deficient and solid offensively. The only problem I see is that Alvarado is too loose and simply outgunned. 
If you're looking at Rios as beatable, you're exactly right. Abril beat him very easily and was robbed. The blueprint exists - stay on the outside, pile up points, smother and/or clinch and don't let him get off inside. Alvarado isn't a guy that is capable or willing to repeat this game plan. He's coming to fight and he'll be punished.
Rios -150, 22.5 units to win 15.
Nishioka is good. Hasn't lost in almost a decade. Veteran. Smart. Durable. The problem is that Donaire is great. The general consensus is that Donaire will win a decision against Nishioka. I don't see that happening.
Nishioka has only been stopped once and that was in his second professional bout. In fact, he's rarely been in much trouble in his career. However, I did see something about him that I don't like. 
He was dropped in the first round against Jhonny Gonzalez by a nice straight right hand. The problem was that there was only about 30 seconds left in the round. When he was hurt, he simply bac... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 29, 2012 04:57 PM

Rahman v Povetkin

Over 7.5, +130, 8 units to win 10.40

Rahman ITD, +1355, 1 unit to win 13.55

Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 08:09 PM

Friday Night Boxing

Whittaker/Rosado under 7.5, -115, 11.5 units to win 10.

Antwone Smith, +380, 2 units to win 7.6

Thompson/Kovalev under 5.5, -185, 5.55 units to win 3.

Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 08:47 PM

Martinez is a LOCK

I'm going to just say that. Chavez Jr is going to get dominated. Why? It's very, very simple...
Chavez Jr. uses his size and will to break down significantly smaller men with pressure. He isn't going to be able to walk forward and "break down" Martinez like he has his recent opponents. Martinez's lateral movement and ring awareness won't let that happen. In short, Chavez Jr isn't going to be able to land anything significant often enough to win him rounds or the fight.
Martinez is eventually going to be remembered as one of the better Jr Middle/Middleweight fighters of all-time. He's a complete fighter that wants to be the best and takes the steps necessary to become exactly that. 
As far as the outcome, I'm not totally sure. However, what I heard last night in an interview with Martinez on FNF was interesting...
In a part of this interview, he says "It doesn't matter if Chavez wants to win the first, second and third rounds. I won't allow it, but it's not important. Like Roberto Duran would say, "talk to me after the 8th round." 
More importantly was this statement on the key to the fight: "I can't get away from my fight plan and give him any chances. That's it. It's very simple."
We've already seen this fight before, probably against a superior fighter. When Martinez won the title from Pavlik he used patience staying on the outside and throwing well timed pot shots to disrupt Pavlik's timing when co... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 08, 2012 02:11 AM

Dawson/Ward, Complete Saturday Card

After a ridiculously slow August, we have no fewer than 17 fights with available lines for Saturday. Christmas in September? I would like to think so...
Anyways, here goes....
We start the action Saturday with a heavyweight fight in Moscowbetween Konstantine Airich and Vyacheslav Glazkov. Glazkov was 2008 bronze medalist in Beijing. He's fighting at home and is a 10/1 favorite. Not rocket science here, Airich is cannon fodder. Under 9.5, -170, 8.5 units to win 5.From the same venue we also have Jameel McCline against Magomed Abdusalamov. Jameel, pass go, collect $200 and take a nap. Under 6.5, -115, 11.5 units.
In the afternoon, we are treated to an interesting doubleheader from London, featuring Edison Miranda vs Tony Bellew. Let's face it - Miranda has been trash the last few years. However, he has infamously trained with Chad Dawson for this fight. How did he fair? Let's not go there, at least not yet. I've never been a big fan of Bellew. Cocky, stands straight up, over-rated power. I also can't shake the images of him being dropped like a sack of shit by McKenzie twice by straight right hands. This is probably the last hoorah for Miranda, as in this will be his last significant win. Yep, I'm taking the bait and going with Miranda to pull the upset. He's the better fighter and he might be coming off the best training camp of his life. Miranda +400, 2.5 units to win 10.
The opening bout is Gumersindo Lucas Carrasco vs Lee Purdy... [More]

Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 07:29 PM

Strikeforce Cash

YTD MMA: +6 units

This should be an interesting card. Lots of chalk, but some live action here...

Yamanaka +108, 3 units to win 3.24
Amagov (-437) and Tate (-456) parlay, 6.03 units to win 3
Green -107, 5.35 units to win 5
Cook/St Preux over 1.5 rounds, -150, 3 units to win 2
Smith +289, 3.46 units to win 10 units
Bowling/Saffiedine under 2.5 rounds, -105, 2.10 units to win 2
Brunson +431, 2.3 units to win 10
Kaufman/Rousey over 1.5, +195, 10 units to win 19.5

Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 09:25 PM

Friday Night Fights

George/Miranda under 5.5, +125, 5 units to win 6.25
Frias +900, 1.5 units to win 13.5

Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 08:55 PM

UFC 150, Props

Kuiper -150, 6 units to win 4
Hayden +240, 4 units to win 9.6
Roberts +350, 1 unit
Holloway -135, 6.75 units to win 5
Edgar/Bendo won't go 4 full, +220, 5 units to win 11
Guillard +280, 3 units ton win 8.4
Shields -190, 7.6 units to win 4
Guillard/Cerrone won't complete 2 full rounds, -120, 12 units to win 10

Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 09:08 PM

Friday Night Fights

Hopefully this broadcast is superior to the debacle from last week. Anyways, here are my plays:

Venifel Vincente +240, 4 units to win 9.6
Darley Perez -430, 17.2 units to win 4

Posted Friday, August 03, 2012 06:58 PM

Friday Night Fights

Prospect showcase more than anything, though I feel Gesta/Barnett could be interesting..

Gesta/Barnett over 7.5, +170, 6 units to win 10.2
Frankel/Bay Jr under 8.5, +230, 3 units to win 6.9
Barnett ITD, +1355, 1 unit to win 13.55

Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 05:21 PM

Showtime Saturday

First off, I want to say that this is an excellent doubleheader put together by Showtime, something we didn't see from HBO last weekend. Fights that look good on paper often fail to live up to expectations, but this card should be an exception.
So here are my plays..
Porter is compact and strong, but I don't see him overwhelming Gomez like Alvarez or Cotto have previously. Gomez should have the location advantage and certainly has the experience edge. 
This is a HUGE step up for Porter. Many are down on Gomez, but Alvarez makes people look much worse than they actually are, so I'm willing to give him a pass in that fight. Since the contender finale, Gomez has only lost to Cotto and Alvarez, while defeating former stars like Gatti, Tackie, Soto-Karass and Jose Lois Castillo.
Porter is good, but he isn't the "can't miss" type of prospect people keep saying he is and  I believe this is a pick'em fight.
Gomez +310, 4 units to win 12.4
All I keep hearing is about how Guerrero is moving up two weight classes and he is going to have his hands full with Aydin. I call BULLSHIT. 
Through my eyes Aydin fights like a club fighter. His offensive game plan is to cover up then throw a couple bombs after his opponent gets off. Under no circumstances can he outbox Guerrero and win this fight on the cards. That simply can't and won't happen. Since he throws such wild punches it leaves him wide open to be crushed against a sharp counter puncher. Guerrero will... [More]

Posted Friday, July 27, 2012 07:35 PM

Friday Night Fights

Two interesting fights, even if the lines are a bit out of order...
I like Lundy and find him very entertaining AND skillful. However, one simply can't trust him not to make himself vulnerable at points in the fight. He can be caught and dropped without question. Every time he could easily out skill a guy, he simply won't. You just can't teach some guys not to FIGHT - ask Amir Khan.
Beltran is a very good fighter. In fact, I would take a shot with him if he didn't have an uphill battle on the cards. I do feel this fight will be much closer than expected, as Beltran is going to come forward and attempt to close the distance and take his chances inside. Basically, that's his only shot tonight. 
Given the fact that Beltran and Lundy should both be in striking range the majority of this fight and the fact that I can't wager on a live dog that won't win... I'm going to make a moderate wager on UNDER 9.5, +150, 8 units to win 12.
The undercard is the play I prefer tonight. Both Ennis and Pierson are somewhat passive counter punchers. Ennis is a solid favorite for a reason though, as he has more power and is more polished. I don't like laying 4/1 chalk when a guy isn't THAT much better and it's only a ten round fight with both guys being local. 
All things considered, this should be a solid boxing exhibition. The over 7.5, -115, 11.5 units to win 10 is my play of the night. ... [More]

Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 09:17 PM


I'm not drinking Broner Kool-Aid. However, Escobedo doesn't offer any significant offense that will make Broner think twice about adding to his own self-perceived legend. 

Escobedo has never been stopped, but Guerrero probably could have stopped him in the middle rounds had he not exhibited his typical passive style. Unfortunately for Escobedo, he's going to get drilled tonight.

If I had to guess... Broner via stoppage sometime in the 4th...

Under 8.5, -110, 16.5 units to win 15.

Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 10:18 PM


I really, really like this fight, because it should be entertaining. Unfortunately, Danny Garcia is probably going to get brutalized. Why? It's a really simple equation...

1. He has below average hand speed. 

Garcia is going to have to load up and hurt Khan to win this fight. Boxing shouldn't be an option, as he simply doesn't have the ability to outbox Khan. The only problem is that Khan is going to get there first - again and again and again and.. you get the picture.

2. He puts on prodding pressure, walking straight forward with little to no head movement or lateral movement of any kind. He'll take one to give one. That's usually a good proposition for him, but tonight he is facing someone that might inflict too much damage for this to be a winning strategy for him.

3. Khan has a notoriously "iffy" beard. While this has improved, it's still more fact than fiction. Garcia will test him at some point early in this fight. We all know how that has went for Khan against Prescott. 

Don't see either of these guys engaging in a grueling back-and-forth battle for the full 12 rounds. Somebody's going out, probably in the 7th, 8th round.

Fight Won't Go the Distance, -150, 22.5 units to win 15

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User: walktheline
Joined: December 2007
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: Pittsburgh Penguins
Occupation: Government

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