Posted Monday, April 07, 2008 06:28 AM
yesterday's board was a lot better, especially in terms of value, but this is what I'm liking for tomorrow:
like Gorzelanny and PIT has played as well as CHC this year so far, especially impressive on offense.
SEA ML/ Ov 9
I love fading Daniel Cabrera until he pulls a gem out of his ass which he does at some point every year, but until then, he coughs up runs in bunches
no way the yankees don't work a split, and I'm guessing splits for them will consist of one close game ... yesterday.... and one offensive explosion
PHI/CIN UNDER 9
dualling aces, I'll stay off either side. Hammels should gem, but I wouldn't put it past CIN to some how eek this one out. Either way, I think Arroyo pitches well enough to keep them in it
WAS has looked very good early on, they have a lot of productive bats, as well as their respective leaders now at the hot corners (Zimmerman and finally a healthy Nick Johnson). Furthermore, Redding looked dominant in his first outting and he actually looked decent a bit last year, so I'm going to bet that he'll at least be solid, while I think Andrew Miller will get hit hard again, until he fixes his control issues.
Posted Saturday, March 29, 2008 05:09 PM
let down game for the Grizz after a superhuman road W for them, plus Kaman's third game back they should be more acclaimated to him.
these high lines usually indicate home double digit blowouts for good home teams. Add the fact that GS knocked them off in DEN last time and DEN should be ready to keep that from happening twice.
PHO -3.5 1st half
Don't want to see what happens late in the game, but the Suns should carry momentum into the first half of this one. They are the superior team too, but NJ has been playing good home ball so I won't mess with this one past the half.
DET and BOS are both sleeping on whatever games, but they both show up for statement games and this is one of them. Noone on the Pistons has forgotten the LeBeating they got last year in game 5 and they will always take the Cavs seriously.
CHAR +1.5 1Q
CHAR has been jumping out to leads or at least playing tough enough to cover 1Q's against contenders. I don't want to mess with the final in this game, but I like the Bobs early in a game.
Posted Friday, March 28, 2008 04:08 AM
finally getting back to winning, so I'll start posting my plays again...
TOR -14 ... home blowouts are regular occurances in TOR, plus Bosh has had some time to get back into the flow
BOS -6 ...they always dominate in home revenge games against western conference
PHO -2 ... revenge game and PHO just is more talented and due for a W after tough losses to BOS, DET
IND -? ...Home to home game went to NJ last time, always flip sides and reup in these
Credit CK with getting me on PHO... TOR/BOS home and home to home flips have been good to me all year (although CK taught me about the home to homes too)
MICH ST +5/ML ...Peaking at the right time and the free throw thing let MISS ST cover last game, at worst I think it keeps MICH ST within range late.
might make small plays on ATL for home dominance against a CHI team in chaos and MIL for a team that always rises to the occasion against powerhouses as a home dog. Obviously I need to see the spreads first, but I think that's why the books haven't issued a line to the public yet.
also like MIN 1st half and SAC -2, but I won't play them, just because that is too many plays for one day already.... [More]
Posted Friday, March 14, 2008 06:22 AM
REALLY liking a couple of early looks tomorrow. If I don't catch at least two of these three I may just chill out on throwing my money around until I start to hit stride again.
Phil always gets his boys up and read for the first of a tough road trip (think back to the Pistons... no Pau, no Bynum against a team that historically dominates us and we cover, losing SU by one). This next four game stretch is arguably the toughest any team will face all year. @ Dallas (who's playing great ball right now), @ Houston (uh... hello?), and @ Utah (my vote for toughest place to play in the game). That said, if they get one and only one, it's this one.
Speaking of Jazz, as amazing as they are at home, they are equally dissappointing on the road, rarely covering (losing ATS in their first two attempts this road trip). Meanwhile the Celtics are on another one of their cliche 10 game win streaks with another modest 5 game ATS win streak. BOS has picked on teams from the western conference and the Jazz just begged to be picked on when they go on the road.
I'll split my money after getting burned by WAS last night, but the Bulls are playing very legitimate basketball since the trade that dumped of some of their dead weights and allowed Noah to start and brough energy in the form of Gooden (a great home player) and Hughes (much happier and his play shows it). ... [More]
Posted Thursday, March 13, 2008 09:15 PM
Didn't post my college plays today, but maybe I should have... actually had some luck there today... UCLA -11, NEB -2, and PITT +2.5 2nd half won for me. UConn let me down in the 2nd half, but I'm happy with 3 for 4 in a forum that normally treats me bad....
NBA today, I took
WAS -3 (normally don't like teams with returning stars, but WAS is good at evening the score, especially with CLE who won last time they faced
POR +1.5 1st half .... POR 1st half on the road has been VERY good to me and this is an excellent time to play it, revenging a home loss
might make an in game play on PHO/GS depending on how that one shapes up in the first half
Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2008 04:32 PM
TOR +5.5 1st half (they're the kind of team that catches GS sleeping in the first half, they're off a tough hard loss last night, revenge is a factor)
DET -4 1st half (following CK, ignoring a trend, but I think it'll happen)
SA +2 (no way they keep losing, even to contenders, they're too good)
MIL +9 (bought .5... hate to fade CK, but Jazz suck on the road and a lot of supporting evidience:
this is a team that has covered at home against SA, CLE, DEN, DET, N.O. all in the past month and a half and was a 1.5 pt buy from covering against HOU and PHO a little earlier than that... and btw, the +8.5 offered now would have covered against the Rockets during their streak, payday for Vegas, I just want my cut...ignored my gut on CHI last night, not gonna do the same thing twice)
CHAR +10.5 (or more... still holding out)
Posted Tuesday, March 11, 2008 05:54 PM
I'm off the 1st half under in MIN, switching to POR -.5 1st half
MEM/PHO under 223
POR -.5 1st half