weathersharp's Blog

Weather WILL factor in MO/NEB

By weathersharp | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 08, 2009 12:02 PM   76 comments
4-3 ytd   30-11 lifetime in posted weather factor plays...

Rain to start early Thursday in Columbia MO and continue into the night. One model I look at places the heaviest stripe of rain right over central MO Thursday evening with the other model the heaviest amount somewhat south of the Columbia area at the same time. At any rate we are looking at a significant amount of rain in the area for Thursday and the coaches will likely adjust their game plans upon seeing this very large amount of rain. Rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the 6 hour window surrounding the game time.  If it does pan out it may turn out like the VT/Miami game with continuous heavy rain.  Im not sure about the continuous rain but Ive got a 6 unit play...

U 52.5       

     
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drhl says:
10/08/09 12:02PM
CURRENT O/U 51  LETS SEE HOW THAT CHANGES THRU THE DAY
IgetMoney101 says:
10/08/09 12:03PM
Common logic would say that rain will affect the qb's throws but what about the footing of the secondary?? I'm going to wait for the total til game time  my book it has already dropped to 51 and yesterday it was 53.  Take the over everyone!
pucku27 says:
10/08/09 12:04PM
KEEP BETTING THE UNDER  I LOVE HOW THE LINE IS DROPING  MAYBE I CAN GET 49 AND THEN HAMMER THE OVER
davpardan says:
10/08/09 12:05PM
PS150 says:
10/08/09 12:23PM
Great reporting!This is why covers is special..Let's break those books!
thegr8-1 says:
10/08/09 12:29PM
A2C says:
10/08/09 12:30PM


I just checked that site, and it says there's 100% chance of rain at 7pm in Columbia, MO.  They're predicting thunderstorms from 7-10pm
vincenzococotti says:
10/08/09 12:30PM
 from nebraska team site..
Rainy night: The forecast for Thursday night in Columbia, Mo., is not pretty: A 90 percent chance of rain, which is expected to be heavy at times. How much attention does Pelini give to weather forecasts before football games? “None,” he said. “We can’t control that. We’re ready for all that. I know this: They’re going to be playing on the same field in the same weather conditions we are.”

Reaching higher: Nebraska is No. 1 in the country in scoring defense but the Huskers still aren’t satisfied.

“I don’t think scoring (defense) is upholding the tradition,” Husker senior nose tackle Ndamukong Suh said. “I think tradition is not allowing teams to run the ball on you, pass the ball on you and if they do, at some point get a chance to break it out. A Blackshirt defense is definitely going to take those yards back off that board. By getting tackles for loss, getting sacks and getting interceptions and getting the ball back to our offense.”

gkastanza says:
10/08/09 12:31PM
On the UNDER

 

Already fallen to 51

 

GLTA 

Biggwaukegan says:
10/08/09 12:39PM
let the under drop to 49 and i pound it.
cburk says:
10/08/09 12:47PM
Once the football is wet it will actually be easier to grip making easier to throw, but not necessarily easier to catch.  Just be careful with this, been burned many times with this type of logic.  Maybe wait see how low it goes, by kickoff tonight the over may be a play?

GL
LoserNation says:
10/08/09 12:50PM
We're in the middle of our 8th straight hour of rain...doesn't look like theres an end in sight...it looks nasty.
weathersharp says:
10/08/09 01:12PM


With all due respect...but do you think the Husker coach would say "yes we are altering our game plan due to the weather forecast"  or something similar.?  They are not going to share anything with any media, but I can assure you they have a secondary plan in case of adverse weather and will be ready to utilize it if needed




trainer4u2 says:
10/08/09 01:12PM

was windy, wet, cold and basically just plain nasty.

weathersharp says:
10/08/09 01:13PM


With all due respect...but do you think the Husker coach would say "yes we are altering our game plan due to the weather forecast"  or something similar.?  They are not going to share anything with any media, but I can assure you they have a secondary plan in case of adverse weather and will be ready to utilize it if needed




Scruff79 says:
10/08/09 02:21PM
Vince you are alright!
radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 03:16PM


Already there my friend.
radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 03:21PM


Contemplating the 1st Half bet.  It's down to 24.5 right now.
weathersharp says:
10/08/09 03:24PM
Looks like the 2nd large batch of rain is is heading in from the west and is centered on and south of the I-70 corridor near Columbia during the next two to four hours.  Looks like a cold front is developing over eastern Kansas and thats where the lightning is currently centered.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php
aNTsKiLLz says:
10/08/09 03:36PM
I understand this game is on field turf but i do not care what surface you are playing on when the field is wet you cannot plant your foot and just turn up the field so easily. I think both coaches will be conservative early and not wanna give in to one another that's why i'm taking under 1st half and eventually you expect some big plays to happen but ultimately i don't think this is going over unless these teams are constantly moving the chains and stopping the clock.
golfing123 says:
10/08/09 03:40PM
Does any one know if it will be windy. I would rather make a play based on wind then rain as we all know just wet conditions can actually help the offenses. Give me a combination of both and i'm on it. Under!
jmw59 says:
10/08/09 03:40PM
thanx sharp
weathersharp says:
10/08/09 03:44PM


I missed the boat on this can you please enlighten me ??
radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 03:44PM


Any thoughts as to whether Under 24.5 1H is still good?  I didn't place a first half bet when I got Under 53 for the game.  I'm trying to think if I see 4 touchdowns in the first half, or 3 tds and 2 fgs.  I don't know if field goals will be happening at all in this mess.
vietnamTD says:
10/08/09 03:49PM

yep i waiting too...my was dropping from 53 to 50.5 i hope it go down more by the game start...maybe 48 hehheheh

radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 03:53PM
Fuck it, wish I had got it a little bit higher but it's not like it was at 28, so hopefully it doesn't come down to a moosing if I lose it.

Under 1H 24.5


golfing123 says:
10/08/09 03:53PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by weathersharp]

I missed the boat on this can you please enlighten me ??
[/Quote  Simply put recievers know where there goin;  the secondary does'nt. Have you tried to cover a reciever when its wet. I don't believe  you missed the boat my friend you missed the whole damm ship
aNTsKiLLz says:
10/08/09 03:55PM
well i mean 3 td's and a field goal and your still good...i got 27 so i figured four tds beats me. But i checked and both kickers are pretty good. Nebraska's kicker has only missed 3 field goals in 3 years and was 5/5 against VTECH and Mizz kicker is 10/10 with 3 over 40 so i'm hoping they both try to run and be conservative early on with the weather.
MoneyMakinMoe says:
10/08/09 03:56PM

 

 

haha... have you?!? Highschool JV team doesnt count

 

 

weathersharp says:
10/08/09 03:57PM
So receivers making their cuts on a wet field is the only variable that you consider when its raining.  Im not even sold on that!!

BTW...welcome to Covers


CHITOWNODAWG says:
10/08/09 06:59PM
EVER SINCE THE INFLUX OF COLLEGES TO SWTICH FROM GRASS TO FIELD TURF THE WEATHER HAS BEEN SO MUCH MORE IRRELEVANT, GUYS ACT LIKE IF THESE TEAMS ARE PLAYING IN THE BACK OF YMCA'S GRASS FIELDS
Zoot says:
10/08/09 07:12PM
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USMO0193?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared
Zoot says:
10/08/09 07:15PM
lots of rain means it will be harder to tackle

meaning more points

weathersharp says:
10/08/09 10:12PM
   Threw in some in game ML +100 on MO right after the safety.
weathersharp says:
10/08/09 07:48PM
Update:  Looks like the back edge of the rain will clear through the area sometime in the first half. A cold front is moving in on the back edge of the rain area and gusty winds from the North will come in behind the rain area. around 15 to 20 mph possible.  Rain does not look like it will happen the whole game as was said was possible when I started this post.
weathersharp says:
10/08/09 10:20PM
I just ignore them now...mostly haters with less than 100 posts....


SwanDawg95 says:
10/09/09 10:26AM
jmw59 says:
10/09/09 11:12AM
Thanks bro  Took the Huskers and Under on a nice parlay. 
BigEastExpert says:
10/09/09 02:02AM
radiotokyo says:
10/09/09 01:13AM
Under =
radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 04:01PM


Yeah, that's what I figured with the numbers.  I'm hoping the conservative approach sticks, as well as the defenses doing a good job (as they should), and a severe lack of points off of turnovers.
radiotokyo says:
10/08/09 04:05PM
Have you tried to throw a ball when it's wet?  Have you tried to see downfield when it's pouring rain?  Have you tried to get your footing proper when it's slippery?  Have you tried to catch something when it was already wet with more water being poured on it?  Have you tried to block out how miserable it feels when you're being hit by 300 pound men who are soaked to the bone and all you/ they want to do is just get off the fucking field and go home and fuck your/their girlfriend?
gtsum says:
10/08/09 07:10PM
straight from columbia - rain and more rain..some periodic thunderstorms, but the field is Field Turf, so it will obviously hold up fine
Dowen says:
10/08/09 04:21PM
Two weeks ago I pounded LSU/MISS ST under because it was pouring rain!!  It went over easily in the 3rd. 

 

Waiting till gametime and see what my local gives....leaning over.

bracks says:
10/08/09 08:44PM
I wanted more from you guys, but happy to take the free 2 pts.

 

Over 50.5 for 2 Units

topperchris says:
10/08/09 08:00PM
I am with www.chrismacnetwork.com and they went with Under on the total.. Weathersharp thanks for the info..I now have 2 sources saying the under!
Xeon says:
10/08/09 06:53PM

EVERYING MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...So take what I wrote below and speed it up by an hour, maybe two.  that may be bad news for tailgaters...better news by game time!

 

Ponchos and jackets are still in order tonight Tiger fans!  It may not be as dry as we had hoped for with yesterday's update...but we are still confident the heavy, steady rain that we saw this morning will not be repeated this evening.  As noted in our hour-by-hour forecast below, there will be a notable break in the precipitation for a few hours this afternoon.  However, a second wave of energy will ride along the front and will likely push some of the rain further northward back up into the Columbia area.  The nature of this rain will be light and spotty, tapering to drizzle by the second half of the game.  Please also note that the breeze will pick up from the north once this wave passes, and winds could gust as high as 18mph by kickoff

billymac27 says:
10/08/09 11:09PM
wish i had the over.....
trainer4u2 says:
10/08/09 06:37PM
my local down to 49
macattack says:
10/08/09 07:15PM
Another stat for anyone looking to bet the under tonight is the fact that both these teams have already played 6 unders in the 8 games combined, I'm looking at a final score: 21-17...Neb
Pat2b27 says:
10/08/09 05:12PM
I think everyone is over playing this weather thing as I sit and think about it. My fresman year at Missouri in 03, it rained all game(not even close to what people are saying it looks like right now, but still) and that game flew over to the tune of 60+ points.

I think I am going to make a small play on the under go big on the Tigers.
luckyshades says:
10/08/09 08:26PM
I agree that people seem to be jumping on the under for the sole reason that it's raining ... which in itself probably isn't a good reason. But you have to look at it a bit deeper.

 

In wet conditions teams are more likely to try and keep the ball on the ground (particularly Nebraska who have a strong running game). More running, means more short gains which means longer drives and more time being taken off the clock which means less time for scoring.

 

That's the reason I'm on the under - not because some water is magically going to stop these teams from getting into the endzone.

Bruschi54 says:
10/08/09 07:00PM
Precipitations equalling unders is a myth.  Don't fall for it.  The only weather that factors into under IMO is lots and lots of WIND !!!
CalledK3 says:
10/08/09 07:46PM
The Husker defensive front is dominant - they will force turnovers as Missouri will get frustrated and their O-line is average at best.

This is a bad blood game - Huskers playing with revenge and with a chip on their shoulder after totally outplaying V-tech on the road and losing....the game and respect

forget the total - play the side

Nebraska Huskers

HeyRube says:
10/08/09 06:35PM
our dark skinned friend painted a 51.5 for you to mull over...
topher79 says:
10/08/09 07:16PM
This game goes over.  Nebraska's "#1 ranked scoring defense" is a result of inferior competition.

 

- Bill Snyder circa 1998

 

 

 

 

 

awbasa says:
10/08/09 10:30PM
my under and mizzo +4 hedged a half a point look
Chezman says:
10/08/09 10:17PM
Sorry betting unders based on rain is a sure way to go broke. Asways has been always will be.

golfing123....

 

This is "great" handicapping strategy.

 

 

aNTsKiLLz says:
10/08/09 08:35PM
I agree that you can't base your total on weather but i don't think that NEB wants to play that type of game where they wanna go up and down the field...They wanna run and play Defense and use the weather to their advantage
aNTsKiLLz says:
10/08/09 04:38PM
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions no one should be offended unless they are calling someone out. You shouldn't have to apologize to anyone golfing. There are plenty of variables in this game but NEB on the road they are gonna try to establish the run in my opinion and not for nothing who has Mizz beat? They have a bunch of first year starters on Offense and this will be their first test. I must say i have been impressed with Mizz QB but this is a different game. We'll get alot out of him from this game that's for sure
aNTsKiLLz says:
10/08/09 03:58PM

NEB has a good pass rush and when i watched Mizz play Nevada the QB was trying to run out of trouble alot and lets not forget you have to make catches with a wet ball too so it goes both ways
cannesKID says:
10/08/09 11:41PM
AJLightning says:
10/08/09 08:40PM
kevdec26 says:
10/08/09 09:12PM
right on with the rain....now lets see the under
kevdec26 says:
10/08/09 10:10PM
looking good
mojo10 says:
10/09/09 11:40AM

Thanks weathersharp 

CIPOTE says:
10/09/09 11:41AM
  Do you have anything on tonite game?????

fah_Q says:
10/08/09 07:14PM
note that the breeze will pick up from the north once this wave passes, and winds could gust as high as 18mph by kickoff.

 

I'm on the under.....

golfing123 says:
10/08/09 08:49PM
Some very good points both ways. ill take Missour +31/2 for the reasons i mentioned above. GL all
golfing123 says:
10/08/09 04:13PM
Sorry betting unders based on rain is a sure way to go broke. Asways has been always will be.
golfing123 says:
10/08/09 04:32PM
Ok final post. The under may hit but i would prefer it to be windy also. Two good defenses;sure handed running backs; and yes pouring rain would help alot too if i were to bet under among other variables. I still may. Didn't mean to offend anyone i guess ill just observe for awhile.
golfing123 says:
10/08/09 04:08PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by weathersharp] So receivers making their cuts on a wet field is the only variable that you consider when its raining.  Im not even sold on that!!

BTW...welcome to Covers
I didn't say it was the only variable; it was one example. Slippery ball ; short field. There are many examples in your own thread that are very solid. I guess everyone in here but you missed the boat. Sorry  for trying to add some facts. Betting under s

[/Quote

IgetMoney101 says:
10/08/09 04:11PM
The recievers know which routes they r running the defender has no idea where they are going. Its an advantage to the offense
rryyar says:
10/08/09 04:40PM
This will be a shootOUT!!! ZAC LEE will Torch the MIzzzuuuu Secondary.... Look for Brooks, Niles Paul,, and Roy Helu,, to have a big Game..... And don't forget my Favorite name in college pigskin (((( CURINSKI GILLEYlen))) key word Currencyyy lollllll... Take dat to yo BOOKIE everyone... When it rainsss it POurssssss ...What rhymes with pour... sscoreeeeeeeeee....... OVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR lol
Sportsfan300 says:
10/08/09 04:54PM
Absolutely no wind in Columbia now!! 

 

GLTA 

j_schnappa says:
10/08/09 07:06PM
that website was very helpful!!  I study that all the time.  Keep em coming!!
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