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Super Tuesday

Yesterday: 1-1  -0.3 units
Season: 96-92  (+12.26 units)

Phi/LAD under 10  +105  (1 unit)
   Just a hunch here. Signs point to the over, but the number is about as high as an NL game will get and you're getting money to take the under. Let's just hope for a good start out of Kershaw.

Atlanta +110 (2 units)
  Won without Chipper last night and now they have their second best pitcher on the hill against one of New York's most inconsistent. Riding the Braves money train from stop 1.

Milwaukee RL +105 (1 unit)
  Milwaukee crushes left handed pitching and Koronka probably won't go more than 5 anyways in this spot start. Parra has finally started spotting his fastball and cut down on the walks. This may be a homer play, but I see Milwaukee scoring at least 8 and they should hold Florida under 6. I didn't like the odds on the over so I'm just playing the run line.

Detroit +123  (2 units)
  I always back Galarraga when he's getting money. Slowey has been hit hard his last few starts so I feel confident in the Tigers getting a W tonight.

San Diego +123 (2 units)
  Continue to get good value for Peavy. The Cubs are struggling as is Rich Harden. If the Padres can get his pitch count up early and get to the bullpen by the 6th, they should win this one.

Was/SF under 8  even (1 unit)
   Two solid pitchers against two below average offenses in a pitchers park.... [More]

Small ticket Monday

Season: 95-91 (+12.56)

Chicago White Sox +128 (2 units)
  Equal lineups and teams but CWS has the much better pitching IMO. Floyd over Pavano and I also like their bullpen better as well.

Atlanta +170 (1 unit)
  Simply a value play. Lowe is Atlanta's top starter and has the ability to compete with Johan in a pitchers duel. The Mets haven't supported Santana with many runs this year. I'm sure the Braves could win this match-up 2 out of every 5 games, which makes this a good value.

Good luck!

Mothers Day Special Plays

Daily total: 4-4  (-0.8 units)
Monthly Total: 4-4  (-0.8 units)
Season Total:  92-89 (+11.58)

Florida/Colorado under 9.5 +102 (2 units)
  Cook is a very good pitcher at home and Volstad has the stuff to shut anyone out. Both offenses are middle of the pack so don't expect either to single handedly cover the over.

Giants/Dodgers over 7.5  -115 (1 unit)
   Jeff Weaver fade. Still in shock that he only gave up 1 run in his first start against Arizona. They had plenty of opportunities, but he got out of a lot of jams.
 
KC/Angels over 9.5  -110  (1 unit)
   Neither starter or bullpen are very good IMO. Davies pitched well this year unitl his last start. Loux is still an emergency fill in until they can get some of their starters healthy.

Toronto +104 (1 unit)
   Going with the better offense and team. The A's have not seen Cecil yet, so that may play in the Jays favor as well.

Tampa Bay +130 (2 units)
  Matt Garza has had a lot of success against the Sox. The Rays are playing great right now and at this price, how can you not take them?

Good luck everyone!

Back From Vegas and Back to picking

I'm back from my Vegas vacation and ready to build up my covers win totals again.

Season to date: 88-85  +12.38 units
   Sides: 64-53 +22.68
   Totals: 24-32  -10.3

Atlanta +101  (1 unit)
  Fading Joe Blanton. Hasn't been a good fade this year, but Atlanta has it's second best starter on the hill, so I like this combination.

San Francisco +131 (2 units)
  Sanchez is hit or miss but has the stuff to throw a shutout any night. The Dodgers are now a left handed dominant lineup with She-man out of the lineup. The Dodgers could still be in shock over the news as they looked pathetic last night.

Cubs +138 (1 unit)
  Cubs dominated the Crew in Miller Park last year. I know they're without Lee and Ramirez, but I still like their swagger against my home town team. Dempster can be effective against the Brewers right hand dominant lineup.

San Diego (1 unit) even
   Brian Moehler fade. One of the worst starters in baseball IMO. Even the pathetic Padre lineup should be able to score 6 against him. Especially in a hitter friendly park.

SD/Hou over 9.5  -105  (2 units)
   Moehler stinks and Correia is unlikely to toss a shutout. First one to 8 will win this game.

Wash/Az under 9.5 even (2 units)
  Washington has been hitting the cover off the ball and Arizona can't hit a beach ball. Davis is a pitcher who will frustrate you with his de... [More]

Thursday picks +11.86 units this month

Season Total: 85-53  +11.86 units

Arizona +102 (2 units)
  Fading Suppan. He's pitched better his last 2 starts, but now he's back in a bandbox. Scherzer has struggled, but I like the matchup vs the Crew.

Ariz/Mil over 9 -110 (2 units)
  This could be over by the 6th inning. The two starters have not gone deep into games so far this year and the bullpens are below average.

Tampa Bay even (1 unit)
  The Sox have struggled against Garza in the past and the Rays were an awfully good home team last year. Beckett is coming off a horrible outing against the Yankees. The Sox streak will end tonight!

SD/Dodgers over 9 (2 units)
  McDonald has been throwing batting practice so the Padres should be able to push across 3-5 runs. The dodgers are the real deal on offense and could cover 9 by themselves, but tonight they won't need to.

LA Angels +190 (1 unit)
  Any time a 90+ win team is getting almost 2-1 on your money, you really can't pass this up. I don't care about the pitching match up or any other numbers. All I need to know is that a team which will win 60% of their games this year is paying out 200%.

Good luck cappers!

Wednesday MLB plays

I haven't made picks in a few days, but I made the time today to get some out.

Season: 80-81 (+10.08 units)

LA Angels +140 (1 unit)
  Good value for a good hitting team against a pitcher with a 5+ ERA. This should be a shootout and the side is a 50/50 game in my mind, so +140 is excellent value.

White Sox +108 (2 units)
  Floyd was roughed up last outing, but now he's at home. Should be another low scoring affair. Counting on Bedard's numbers to deviate towards the mean here.

St Louis +102 (2 units)
  The better team and the sp's are equal in my opinion. St Louis has the much better offense although I'm still puzzled how they only got 1 against JoJo.

Florida/NY Mets under 7.5  -115 (1 unit)
  Two excellent sp's in what appears to be a pitchers park. I would also suggest putting more on the first 5 under to take the shaky bullpens out of play.

Houston +124 (2 units)
  Going for the sweep, I'm riding the hot team. Volquez is going to be tough to score on, but he's shown that he's far from unhittable.

Washington +166 (1 unit)
   Fading Myers and his high WHIP. Neither bullpen is good, but this is good value going against a SP that gives up a lot of baserunners.

LA Dodgers +130 (1 unit)
  SF has the definitely pitching edge, but the Dodgers are still a much better team. SF is prone to score less than 3 and I think the Dodgers can scrape across at least 4 again... [More]

Monday slumpbuster plays

Last week was a bad week, but my confidence is still high. Only 2 winning days in the last 8, but we're still playing with house money. It would be nice if we could all make 40 units a month, but a small winning month is better than a losing month.

Season: 78-77 (+8.34 units)

St Louis +122 (1 unit)
  This team is hot winning 7 of their last 10. The Braves have the starting pitching edge, but they are having trouble scoring runs. The Cards win this one with offense.

Houston +102 (2 units)
  Probably going to be a popular pick in Covers due to Oswalt's stellar career record vs the Reds. Last time I took Cincy in the upset because of the money value. But since Oswalt is getting money this time, it's a no brainer play.

Hou/Cin over 8.5  even (1 unit)
  My one total play for the day. Last year, these teams scored a lot of runs in the cueto vs oswalt match-ups. The first meeting this year was a pitchers duel, which has given great value to the over.

Florida +132 (1 unit)
  Marlins have been struggling, but they are 6-3 on the road this young season. I'm continuing to fade John Maine and his wildness.

Cubs +140 (2 units)
  Cubs are the much better team and always have a good following in Arizona. As long as they get a few runs early off Haren and make the D-back bullpen come into play by the 7th, they have a great chance of winning.

San Diego +108 (1 unit)
  Chris Young is back ... [More]

Super Saturday plays

Yesterday:2-4 -2.81
Season: 74-73  +12.17
  Sides: 53-43  +23.27
  Totals: 21-30  -11.10

Houston -124 (2 units)
   Fading Jeff Suppan. He had his one good start for the month. Hampton has been pitching well as of late. It helps to be healthy

Mil/Hou over 9.5 (1 unit)
  I said I was going to give up on totals for a while, but I couldn't resist. Suppan stinks and the Brewers usually hit lefties pretty well since they are a right hand dominant lineup.

Florida -133 (2 units)
  The Phillies squeaked one out last night but were blanked by Johnson. Volstad is a similar pitcher who has a little less control. Park has been pretty decent the past few years, but I don't think he can win a pitchers duel.

San Francisco +115 (1 unit)
  Scherzer has not shown command of the strike zone this year. The Unit has been dealin pretty good. Neither team can hit, so Scherzer's walks could be the difference.

Tampa Bay -113 (2 units)
   Tampa is the better team and I believe Garza is their best pitcher. Oakland has been terrible at home so far so take advantage of the low juice.

NY Yankees +125 (1 unit)
  Mariano blew it for us last night. This will be a classic pitcher's duel and in a tossup game, I love taking the dog. Like I said yesterday...in a heated rivalry throw out the numbers..anything can happen. Thus, take the money.

Minnesota +118 (2 units)
&nbs... [More]

Still in the black.....barely

See what happens when I don't guarantee that at least one of my 20 picks win? I go 0-6. Thanks to a horrible week, I'm getting close to giving all the house money back. For now, I will stop playing totals as that has been a hole in my pocket book.

Season total: 72-69  (+14.98 units)
  Sides: 51-39 +26.08
  Totals: 21-30  -11.10

Philly +129 (1 unit)
  They're still the world F'n champs. Myers is a head case, but Florida struggled scoring against Pittsburgh so I'll take my chances.

Cubs +120 (2 units)
  The Cards are white hot, but the Cubs are still the team to beat in the division. Dempster has been mediocre so far but I'm sure Lou will have his team ready to win this series.

LA Dodgers +115 (2 units)
  Dodgers are the better team and they manhandled the Rockies last week. Cook has been throwin meatballs and this isn't a good lineup to throw meatballs to.

NY Mets RL -120 (2 units)
  One run for backing the best pitcher in baseball and one run for fading Scott Olsen. If the Mets score 4, this is a word that rhymes with "dock".

NY Yankees +128 (1 unit)
  Anything can happen in this heated rivalry. Throw the records out the window. That's why you take the dog. It doesn't hurt that Lester has struggled early (as has Joba). Hopefully the last win vs Oakland is a sign of the bullpen turning things around for the Yankees.

Detroit +148 (1 unit)
   I'll back... [More]

Thursday's Tub Thumping Plays

Season: 72-63  +24.38 units
  Sides: 51-36  +30.08 units
  Totals: 21-27  -5.7 units

Most will have a small card today with only a partial schedule, but I never have a small card.

Mil/Phi over 9.5 even (1 unit)
  Hamels is still in spring training mode thanks to some arm issues. Bush was horrible on the road last year. Sounds like plenty of runs to me.

NY Mets +123 (1 unit)
  I almost always fade Livan however, this price is too good to pass up. I believe the Mets are the best team in the NL, so any time they are getting money, I will most likely take them.

Houston +113 (2 units)
  Wandy Rodriguez is a pitching machine at home. Rarely does he lose and rarely do you see the Stros as an underdog when he's pitching at home. Chad Billingsly is the reason, and hopefully the Stros can push a few runs across to get the win.

KC/Cle over 8.5 -105 (2 units)
  Meche has been below average against the Indians (4.98 era last year) and both teams have solid offenses. Reyes has pitched well, but has been prone to give up the long ball. This is an awfully low number for an AL game with no ace pitchers on the mound.

Tampa Bay even (1 unit)
   Defending AL Champs with their ace on the hill. I'm in. King Felix has the ability to shut anyone out, but Tampa is definitely the better team.

Tex/Tor over 9 -115 (2 units)
  Ride the high scoring series when  you ... [More]

Picks guaranteed not to go winless! =)

Season: 62-49 +25.69 units
  Sides: 44-27  +30.94 units
  Totals: 18-22  -5.25 units

Mil/Phi under 10  even (1 unit)
  Both teams had a day off, the weather will be crappy and the Brewers typically don't hit Moyer well. Not enough? How about the left handed Parra's great stuff neutralizing the big bats of Utley, Howard and Ibanez?

Pittsburgh +129 (1 unit)
  Planned on taking the Fish again, but this is good value at home. Karstens stinks, but the Pirates dominated yesterday, and despite the record, the Fish really haven't played well this year. A few late rallys against Washington makes their record a bit inflated.

Cincinnati +200 (1 unit)
  Too good of odds to pass up. Harden does not go deep into ball games and the Reds have an offense that can put up a lot of runs. Owing's isn't a good pitcher, but every once in a while he comes up with a gem.

Mets +102 (2 units)
  Not a fan of Oliver Perez and his walks however the Mets have one of the best bullpens and the Cards have one of the worst. I'll take the better bullpen and the better overall team over the better starting pitcher.

LA/Hou under 9.5 -105
  Houston has had trouble scoring and Kershaw won't help them get out of the slump. I typically fade Ortiz by taking overs, but he won't give up more than 6 which should keep it under.

Colorado +108 (2 units) 
  100% fade on Petit. Once a promising young ... [More]

Monday picks...59-46 +23.89 for the season

My losing skid has gone to 3 days. Nothing like a light scheduled rainy Monday to start another winning week.

Season: 59-46  +23.89
   Sides: 42-25  +30.14
   Totals: 17-21  -6.25

Bos RL -105 (1 unit) I'm not a fan of Run line plays and I'm 0-1 on the season. This is a fade on Mark Hendrickson and a backing of the Sox on marathon day. Masterson has great upside, but is just getting a spot start, so the Sox bullpen will most likely come into play by the 6th. They have a solid pen so the 6+ runs they get off of Hendrickson early should hold up.

Bal/Bos over 10.5 +105 (2 units) Good hitting teams + mediocre pitching + day game = runs runs runs.

FL -107 (2 units) Ride the money train. I jumped off board yesterday and they are due to lose, but I'll continue to back them as long as there's some value and they keep winning.

fl/pit over 9.5 -110 (1 unit) No real reason on this one other than just a gut feel.

SD +144 (1 unit) Phillies bullpen has been horrendous so this game gives good value. All games in the series have been decided by the bullpen.

Was +140 (2 units) Despite their 1-10 record, they are playing good baseball in all phases except for the bullpen. At this value, I will take the chance that their bullpen can hold a lead one time this week.

NYY RL +108 (1 unit) Again...I don't like run lines but Dana Eveland is horrible. Just what the Yankees need to keep the bats rolling. Pet... [More]

Sunday plays +25.81 in 2009

We finally lost on a non-friday. Time to end this losing skid.

Season to date: 56-41  +25.81 units
   Sides: 40-22  +30.06
   Totals: 16-19  -4.25

Fl/Was over 9.5 -110 (1 unit) Both pitchers have control problems, so there will be plenty of base runners. Let's hope those runners get knocked in.

Pit +108 (2 units) Duke has been lights out and the Braves haven't been able to score without Chipper.

Hou +103 (1 unit) Looking for the sweep. Reds are really struggling right now as is Volquez. I"m going to fade Edison until he shows signs of his 2008 form.

Cin/Hou over 9 -105 (1 unit) two good offenses in a good hitting park.

Detroit even (2 units) Backing Porcello. Seattle has been playing well with Ichiro back, but Detroit has the offense to pound Silva and Porcello can give the Mariner offense fits.

White Sox +154 (2 units) Not only a great value play, but even without the value I like the Sox. They are playing well and have Floyd on the hill. Vegas seems to value Garza as if he's Jake Peavy or Johan Santana. I think he's good, but not that good.

Baltimore +190 (2 units) Another value play. The Orioles have the bats to stay with Boston and Lester has struggled in his first 2 starts. This is Boston's first time seeing Uehara.

LA/Min over 9  even (2 units) Series has gone over every game so far and Loux and Perkins aren't exactly pitchers you think of when having a pitchers ... [More]

TGINF +32.78 units for 2009

Second losing day out of 10 and guess what? Both losing days were Fridays. One more, and it will be a trend that I'll start fading.

Yesterday: 4-5 -3.7 units
Season: 52-34  +27.53
  Sides: 38-17  +32.78
  Totals: 14-17   -5.25

Saturday Plays:
Atlanta even (1 unit)  I don't like to go with struggling teams, but it's a fade on Ian Snell. Ever since his arm injury 2 years ago, he has been pretty useless as a pitcher.

Fla/Wash over 8.5  -110 (1 unit)  We're jumping off the Marlin money train because of the juice. Scott Olsen has been a great fade the past 2 years so the run line won't be a bad play. I"m saving the juice and banking on the Marlins scoring a lot of runs.

Milwaukee +155 (1 unit)  Good value. The Mets aren't a lot better than the Brewers and both teams have their aces on the hill. Last year Milwaukee hit Santana well and beat him in Shea. I look for a repeat this year.

St Louis +110 (1 unit) They should have won yesterday, but the bullpen let LaRussa down once again. This is a big series and I don't see St Louis getting swept. I think Dempster over achieved last year and Lohse has been good the past few Aprils.

Oakland +120 (2 units)  A's are playing great and have their top prospect on the hill. Tallet gets the spot start for Toronto in place of the injured Litsch, so I expect Cito will have to go to the pen early which is never good.

LAA/Min over 9&n... [More]

Fun Friday plays

Another great day yesterday makes it 8 out of 9 days have now been profitable. I'm going to buck my trend a little today and take a few favorites. It's not the way to win money, but they are plays I really like and don't have a lot of juice.

Season Total: 48-29  +31.23 units
  Sides: 36-14  +35.38
  Totals: 12-15  -4.15

Todays plays:
Florida -125 (1 unit) Florida is on a roll and I prefer them as underdogs, but when you have a highly successful pitcher going against a 1-7 team, you have to expect to lay some juice. I know Nolasco struggled his first start, but he's been pretty good the past few seasons so one bad start doesn't phase me.

Yankess RL (I don't have a line yet) (1 unit)  Typically I like to fade Joba and it's been great so far. However, I just have a feeling on this one. Joba is a guy who really gets the crowd into the game so they will be pumped up and as a result, he will be into the game. Cleveland is a bad team. New York is average offensively without ARod, but I sense a blowout in this one.

San Diego +145 (1 unit)  Riding their hot streak. Hamels is a stud, but he has not found the groove yet. Young was one of the leagues top pitchers before Pujols gave him facial reconstruction for free. Rollins and Victorino have struggled and if they can't get on, Philly could have a tough time scoring.

Milwaukee +115 (2 units) Fade on Livan. He pitches batting practice and I expect the Brewers ... [More]

Thursday plays....+24.3 units in 2009

The streak continues...6 out of 7 winning days. This is one day that I'm not super confident about, but sometimes it's the picks you worry about that end up covering the easiest.

Season to date: 42-27 (+24.3 units)
   Sides: 31-13 (+27.95)
   Totals: 11-14 (-3.65)

Today's card:
Florida +113 (2 units) Ride the hot team against the struggling team. I got off the Marlins bandwagon last night and missed out on another huge winner. A sweep will be tough to come by, but Atlanta hasn't shown me anything to think they can win.

Hou/Pit over 9.5 -110 (1 unit) Russ Ortiz fade. Only thing that worries me is that neither offense has shown much life this year. I also read from a fellow capper that Karstens has a tendency to give up the long ball at home.

St Louis -101 (1 unit) A huge series early in the season. I don't like the fact that St Louis had to travel cross country for this one. However Wainwright is probably their best healthy starter and Marshall is making his first start of the season.

Cleveland +175 (1 unit) If you don't play Cleveland, you should play the Yankee RL. Right now, my book has the RL at even money, so I guess you could hedge and play both Cle ML and the NYY RL. Most likely you'll make the .75 juice or break even. I think I'll go that route, but for the purpose of my picks, I'm taking Cleveland. Lee is overrated, but a huge game like this could bring out his Cy Young stuff from a year ago. For this pr... [More]

The beat goes on....Wednesday plays

We now have 6 out of 7 winning days thanks to a +2.64 day yesterday. My Side plays have been great (27-11, +25.79) while my totals plays have stunk (10-14, -4.65). I am going to limit myself to only 1 unit plays on totals until I get that straightened out.

Season Total: 37-25   +21.14 units
 
Wednesday plays:
Kansas City +113 (2 units) I used to always fade Ponson, but he's had some good outings over the past few seasons. Not great, but he keeps the team in games. Laffey is making his first start and the soft tosser had mixed success last year in his limited starts. KC is playing much better than Cleveland and the pitching match-up is even. I give KC the bullpen advantage as well.

Colorado +201 (1 unit) Great value here. Harden is a stud, but will go 6 innings at most. I don't like the Cubs bullpen other than Marmol. Marquis going against his old mates will have some extra adrenaline for this one. Well worth the 1 unit risk.

Boston -105 (2 units) I know Boston struggles in Oakland, but can they really get swept? I don't think so. I give Oakland the slight pitching advantage but Boston still has a huge lineup advantage.

StLouis +108 (1 unit) I don't like either starter in this one. St Louis always seems to find a way to win so since they're getting money, I'll take them.

StL/AZ over 10 (1 unit) Pretty high number, but as stated earlier...neither Pineiro or Garland are good IMO.

Houston +107 (1 unit) Pittsburgh ... [More]

Tuesday plays - winner 5 of 6 days so far

Season to date: 32-22 (+18.5 units)
   Sides: 23-10 (+20.45)
   Totals: 9-12 (-1.95)

Thank goodness for 2 unit plays as it gave me a winning day even though I was only 4-5 with my picks.

Detroit +113 (1 unit)  Porcello is the real deal and Chicago is ready to find that out. Yesterday was a slug fest, but I predict today will be more of a pitchers duel.

LAA/Sea over 9 -120 (2 units) Totally a Carlos Silva play, and it doesn't hurt that the Angels have their worst starter going.

Florida +140 (1 unit) Riding the hot, young arm of Volstad. Vasquez is also good, but also inconsistent. Great value on this toss up game.

Toronto +114 (1 unit) Another toss up game, so take the money. Romero is an unknown to me, but looked impressive in his first start.

Cincinnati +125 (1 unit) The Reds won despite not hitting last night. Parra is inconsistent and the Brewers aren't playing well. This is more of a Brewers fade pick than anything else.

Cin/Mil over 9 -115 (2 units) Teams scored 13 runs last night against the two staff aces. Now they get pitchers who are more vulnerable as well as two pitchers that can hit which could help set up a big inning or two.

Baltimore +129 (2 units) A 2 unit winner for us last night. Time to ride the wave of their hot bats. McCarthy is not they type to stop the Orioles scoring streak. However, they may need 10 to win again, but they are more than capable.

Arizona +125 (... [More]

Monday plays - YTD 28-17 +17.42 units

Only one losing day out of 5 so far. Let's hope that pace keeps up.

Season to date: 28-17 (+17.42 units)
  Sides: 20-8 (+17.17 units)
  Totals: 8-9 (+.25 units)

White Sox +108 (1 unit) Like the pitching match-up. Both teams have potent, yet streak offenses. Miner has been known to be a gas can, so I'm thrilled to be getting money with Floyd.

Hou/Pit over 9.5 even (2 units) Not only do we get Brian Moehler, but Zach Duke isn't exactly a lights out pitcher. Pit could cover this themselves unless Cooper has a quick hook.

Colorado +125 (1 unit) Partial fade on Lilly. Also thinking that the Cubs could have a let down after the emotional Brewers series. Marmol has pitched 3 games in a row, so he probably won't be available making their bullpen less than stellar.

Baltimore +110 (2 units)  Like the pitching matchup. I'm on the Uehara bandwagon and not much of a Padilla fan. Baltimore should put up at least 7.

Cin/Mil under 8 -120 (1 unit) Two stud pitchers. Typically, I'd take the +123 with Volquez, but Milwaukee hit him pretty well last year from what I remember. Good enough to win at least. Only bad bullpens can push this over.

Cleveland +112 (1 unit) Love Zach Greinke, but don't trust the KC bats. Cleveland got off the schneid yesterday and I look for them to keep the streak going.

SF/Dodgers under 8 -120 (1 unit) Don't expect SF to score so I'll take my chances  with LA scoring less than 8 against t... [More]

Wednesday MLB plays

I was out of town for the start of the regular season, but am ready to help people win. Here are my picks for 4/9/09:

Was/Fla under 9  even (1 unit)
   Neither lineup is great and two potentially dominant pitchers on the mound. If Cabrera hits a wild spell, the Marlins could get 8 or 9 themselves.

Season Record: 0-0

Colorado +120 (2 units)
   Fading Doug Davis

Col/Az under 10 -115 (2 units)
   High number of an NL game.

Mets -105 (1 unit)
   Volquez is a stud, but I'll take the almost even money on the much better team. The Reds are a year away in my opinion.

Mets/Reds under 8 even  (1 unit)
   Two very good pitchers. Mets have a great pen so I don't expect Cincy to score more than 2 runs.

Cubs -135 (2 units)
   Fading Brian Moehler. Not a big fan of Lilly, but he's not Brian Moehler

Cubs/stros over 9  -115 (2 units)
   See Brian Moehler

Brewers -110 (2 units)
   Brewers best pitcher against an aging Big Unit. Brewers had a lot of success vs LHP last year. The Unit will get his k's, but will also give up runs.

Tampa Bay +135 (1 unit)
  Pitchers duel and a toss up game. TB is good value in this game with their ace on the mound.

TB/Bos under 8.5  -115 (1 unit)
  see above

KC -105 (1 unit)
   I believe Greinke is solid and more consistent than... [More]

2009 Win Total Plays

I was hoping to have time to do extensive write-ups on these plays, but I just don't have the time before the season starts. Here are the win totals that I am playing:

Cincinnati under 78.5  (3 units)
   Appears to be the public bandwagon team early this season. Yes, they have some great young hitting talent, but they are still young and inexperienced. They haven't done anything the help out their horrendous bullpen. After Volquez, their starting pitching isn't strong so their weak bullpen will have to be used a lot. Their 80 win season in 2006 is the only season they've been above 78 wins in the past 5 years. Next year could be their year, not this year. PREDICTION: 75 wins

Houston over 72.5 (3 units)
  They've had 82+ wins in 4 of the last 5 years and 73 in the other year. Oswalt is aging, which will hurt but they still have a very good offense and I expect Hunter Pence to improve making the offense even more dangerous. The bullpen is decent and they still get plenty of games against Pittsburgh. If their offense can keep them somewhat close to the playoff hunt the first half, I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a chance on Ben Sheets assuming he's ready to go by August 1st.
PREDICTION: 78 wins

Milwaukee over 81.5 wins (3 units)
  Maybe I'm just a homer, but this is my favorite play of all. Their young hitting core is another year experienced and none of them have reached their prime yet so they will just conti... [More]

Free Final 4 Predictions!

   I have posted my Final Four write-ups and predictions. The write-ups are free of charge and can be found by going to the 'ncaa members' link on our main page. Tonight, I like a small play on the over in the Baylor-PSU match-up.
  Both teams have 3 guys who can score 20+ on any given night. Championship game on the big stage of MSG often leads to a looser, up tempo game. With the title on the line, the trailing team is more likely to start fouling with more time left than normal since they have nothing to lose and will want to extend the game as long as possible. Also, the team that's ahead will have no problem taking an easy dunk in the last few seconds in front of the big crowd rather than simply dribbling out the clock.

Have a great weekend! I will be in Detroit for the games, but I should have time on Sunday to submit my analysis for the championship game on Monday.

Scooter
Bookiehitmen.com

Final Four write-ups

I will be leaving tomorrow for Detroit, so I'm posting my final four write-ups now. I don't condone gambling, so use this information however you wish. These are simply my opinions to give you the perspective of one person who follows college basketball closely.

Michigan St vs UConn  -4  o/u 133.5   

For an inter-conference match-up, there is some good comparable data to go off of since UConn has played 3 of the other Big “10? tournament teams. They won all 3 with the following scores:

Wisconsin 72-60

Michigan 69-61

Purdue  72-60

See a pattern? Looks like Michigan St is in in for a 71-60 loss. This is only part of the reason why we like UConn. Yes, Michigan St should have a slight home court advantage and yes, I’ve been dogging them all tournament and they keep covering. Why will this time be different?

UConn should be able to defense MSU’s perimeter with Austrie, Price and Walker. They all have the quickness to stay with Lucas, Walton and Lucious. I do worry about the Thabeet/Souton match-up. Souton has been on a roll from the outside making the pick and pop play a weapon that UConn may not have an answer for. I am figuring the mere presence of Thabeet will rush Souton’s shots reducing his effectiveness.

The rebounding war inside will be fun to watch as both teams are physical and have dominated their opponents on the boards this year. I don’t think either team w... [More]

Sunday Plays - Season to date: 12-8 +6.89 units

Yesterday was the first losing day of the season. Time to get that back and then some.

Cincinnati -107 (1 unit)
A lineup vs B lineup. Reds also have their best rp's going. Starters are about equal in this one.

Baltimore +102 (2 units)
Same reason for taking the Reds. A line-up vs mixed lineup. Although in this one, the Mets have some pretty average to below average pitchers, thus the 2 units.

Philadelphia +102 (1 unit)
Phils have their best lineup and the Sox are holding some of their guys out. Only problem is the Sox have all their top pitchers going and the Phils aren't weak at pitching, but they're not stacked either. Hitters are always ahead of pitchers, so I'm going with the better lineup.

Florida -113 (2 units)
Julian Tavarez plain stinks. Expect the Marlins to jump out early. They'll have to because the Nationals have some solid relievers. I'm hoping they try to stretch Tavarez out and let him go 3+ innings. That should be good for at least 7 runs.

GL cappers!