I was hoping to have time to do extensive write-ups on these plays, but I just don't have the time before the season starts. Here are the win totals that I am playing:
Cincinnati under 78.5 (3 units)
Appears to be the public bandwagon team early this season. Yes, they have some great young hitting talent, but they are still young and inexperienced. They haven't done anything the help out their horrendous bullpen. After Volquez, their starting pitching isn't strong so their weak bullpen will have to be used a lot. Their 80 win season in 2006 is the only season they've been above 78 wins in the past 5 years. Next year could be their year, not this year. PREDICTION: 75 wins
Houston over 72.5 (3 units)
They've had 82+ wins in 4 of the last 5 years and 73 in the other year. Oswalt is aging, which will hurt but they still have a very good offense and I expect Hunter Pence to improve making the offense even more dangerous. The bullpen is decent and they still get plenty of games against Pittsburgh. If their offense can keep them somewhat close to the playoff hunt the first half, I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a chance on Ben Sheets assuming he's ready to go by August 1st.
PREDICTION: 78 wins
Milwaukee over 81.5 wins (3 units)
Maybe I'm just a homer, but this is my favorite play of all. Their young hitting core is another year experienced and none of them have reached their prime yet so they will just continue to get better. Everyone worries about the loss of Sheets, Sabathia and Torres, but I don't. Overall, their bullpen is probably more solid that last year (no Gagne or Mota). Sheets and CC is really only losing 1 pitcher as CC wasn't here the first half and Sheets didn't do anything the second half. Gallardo will make up for a good chunk of that loss. Parra now has a full season under his belt, so he shouldn't hit the wall he hit last August. They also have a much improved coaching staff this season which should add a few more wins that they lost last year due to inexperience and tightness.
PREDICTION: 86 wins
LA Angels over 87.5 (2 units)
The loss of Santana and Lackey to start the season is definitely of some concern. Their lowest win total in the last 5 years is 89. Is this team really 13 games worse than last season? Their offense should be better with the addition of Abreu. Not having lights out K-rod to finish games will cost them a few wins, but this division is still weak and they should run away with it.
PREDICTION: 91 wins
Tampa Bay under 89 (2 units)
What a run they had last year. It wasn't a fluke, but it also won't happen again. Other than last year, this team hasn't won more than 70 games this decade. Their strength is their bullpen. I don't expect Balfour to be as dominant as he was last season. Upton will miss a few weeks after off season injury. I think their starting pitching over achieved last year. And the Yankess have greatly improved. It's hard to win 90 when you face the Yankees, Jays and Red Sox as much as Tampa Bay does.
Florida over 75.5 (2 units)
They've averaged almost 80 wins the past 5 years. Last year they had 84. They lost the heart of their lineup with the Willingham and Jacobs moving on to new teams. They still have a good core with Uggla, Ramirez and Cantu. The key will be the health of the starting rotation. Anibal Sanchez returns, but for how long? Josh Johnson's return to the rotation will be a blessing. Andrew Miller has a year of experience under his belt now. Will he relax and start throwing strikes? The bullpen is pretty solid with Nunez, Lindtstrom and Calero.
PREDICTION: 78 wins
Texas over 74.5 wins (2 units)
They've averaged over 80 wins the past 5 years with the worst year being 75 wins two years ago. They still have plenty of offense to go around and they've never had pitching. Just beating up on Oakland and Seattle should be enough to get them over this total.
PREDICTION: 77 wins
Minnesota over 83 (1 unit)
They still have solid pitching and are the best team in the division in my opinion. If Joe Mauer's injury is more serious than they're leading on, this could be tough. Nobody in this division is very good, but they're better than the West. So if you beat the West and lose to the East, they just have to be a little above .500 in their division. Liriano is now healthy and gives them an ace on the hill. Good managing, solid (not great) and deep talent, and a pretty good bullpen will keep them above .500.
PREDICTION: 85 wins
Oakland under 82 wins (1 unit)
This team is going in the wrong direction winning 75 and 76 games the past two years. They have a group of good young starting pitchers who will get their shot this year (Cahill, Gallagher, Anderson, Outman). They will show some brilliance, and also typical youth inconsistency. On the offensive side, they did add Holliday and Cabrera, but also over the hill steroid users in Giambi and Garciaparra. They won't be terrible, but I can't see them reaching the .500 mark this season.
Other teams I considered, but ultimately didn't play were the Cubs (over 92.5), Diamondbacks (under 86) and White Sox (over 77.5).
I haven't had time to go through the HR total props and probably won't. I've made a lot of money on those the past few years as well and will share my plays if I have time to make some.
I'd love to hear any prop bets that you guys and gals like for the upcoming season.