wilterdink's Blog

Thursday plays....+24.3 units in 2009

By wilterdink | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, April 16, 2009 09:29 AM   27 comments
The streak continues...6 out of 7 winning days. This is one day that I'm not super confident about, but sometimes it's the picks you worry about that end up covering the easiest.

Season to date: 42-27 (+24.3 units)
   Sides: 31-13 (+27.95)
   Totals: 11-14 (-3.65)

Today's card:
Florida +113 (2 units) Ride the hot team against the struggling team. I got off the Marlins bandwagon last night and missed out on another huge winner. A sweep will be tough to come by, but Atlanta hasn't shown me anything to think they can win.

Hou/Pit over 9.5 -110 (1 unit) Russ Ortiz fade. Only thing that worries me is that neither offense has shown much life this year. I also read from a fellow capper that Karstens has a tendency to give up the long ball at home.

St Louis -101 (1 unit) A huge series early in the season. I don't like the fact that St Louis had to travel cross country for this one. However Wainwright is probably their best healthy starter and Marshall is making his first start of the season.

Cleveland +175 (1 unit) If you don't play Cleveland, you should play the Yankee RL. Right now, my book has the RL at even money, so I guess you could hedge and play both Cle ML and the NYY RL. Most likely you'll make the .75 juice or break even. I think I'll go that route, but for the purpose of my picks, I'm taking Cleveland. Lee is overrated, but a huge game like this could bring out his Cy Young stuff from a year ago. For this price I'm willing to take that chance.

SD +110 (2 units)  Jake Peavy getting money...no questions asked. It doesn't hurt that John Maine isn't the pitcher he was 2 years ago.

Washington +122 (1 unit)  They have to win sometime and Joe Blanton is the guy to help them out

Phi/Was under 10 -120 (1 unit) A little extra juice compared to what it came out at yesterday. I still like the under.

Seattle +140 (1 unit) Just like Florida, take the hot team against the struggling team especially when Vegas is giving you money.


Good luck my friends!
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verobeach says:
04/16/09 09:46AM
Good Luck.


jlippens says:
04/16/09 09:53AM
Dink: Kawakami (ATL's starter) is a strikeout pitcher. The Marlins are the worst strikeout team in the league.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Marlins (and rode them the last two games for some very nice pickups). And the ATL bullpen is godaweful. You might have to rely on that, but Cox might be wary to use it, given how bad its proven to be, as well as a very decent chance Kawakami performs well today. If the Marlins can work pitch counts (as he isn't a contact pitcher) he might have to leave mid-6th even if he is doing well. But that's a big if. The Marlins don't really work counts.

So, err...my suggestion would be to look at the UNDER 1st half. Both pitchers are solid and have good matchups against their respective type of opponent.
jlippens says:
04/16/09 09:54AM
Also : BOL
jlippens says:
04/16/09 10:00AM
....additionally, looking at the lines you got: You've got to love yourself before you love others. Love yourself and find a discount book! For Americans that means 5dimes or Matchbook. I use Matchbook, Canbet, Pinnacle and TheGreek (not a discount book, but anyway, an additional option) in order to shop.

But at the very least find one discount book! That unnecessary juice is hundreds and thousands of dollars over a season! Love yourself!
StudAce says:
04/16/09 10:01AM


I'm extremely curious as to what makes Kenshin Kawakami a strikeout pitcher?  Is it because he struck out 8 Washington Nationals?  He never even struck out a batter per inning in any season he ever played in Japan.
jlippens says:
04/16/09 10:04AM


Probably because the Japanese have plate discipline. They're big on discipline, you know!

Also fetishes.
D-Town says:
04/16/09 10:08AM
StudAce says:
04/16/09 10:12AM



ya. good information. i'll be sure to remember that next time i'm making money
ditter says:
04/16/09 10:49AM
Wilter: Love you man and you are en fuego, but your lines are the some of the worst I've seen. They are so off that I thought I was looking at a thread for yesterday. Your record is awesome, but you would be up so much more if you stopped getting hosed with the juice your paying. Get on Matchbook, my man.Just look,

 

You: FLA+113

MB:FLA+124

 

You: Hous over -110

MB: Hous over +121

 

You: STL -101

MB: STL +107

 

You: CLE +175

MB: CLE +202

 

You: SD +110

MB: SD +116

 

You: WASH +128

MB: WASH +130

 

You: PHI under -120

MB: PHI under -110

 

You: SEA +140

MB: SEA +145

 

 

wilterdink says:
04/16/09 10:56AM
Thanks for the info on sportsbooks guys. I use betjamaica who supposedly set me up for 5% juice, but they said from the start that the 5% is only for recreational users and since I've been killing it, they must think I'm a pro? A backhanded compliment I guess.

jlippens - I agree 100% on kawakame. I give the Braves the pitching advantage and if someone told me that I had to pick the winner and if I lost, I'd be put in the hole for life, I would probably end up taking Atlanta. However, I like to play the dogs that legitimately have at least a 50% chance of winning and the Marlins definitely have a 50% chance of winning this. Another main reason for the Fish is that their bats have been luke warm and the Bravos have been cold. Chipper's return could help, but hitting Sanchez won't be easy.
weeble5672 says:
04/16/09 10:59AM
BOL wilter
jlippens says:
04/16/09 11:08AM


Male PMS is a bitch!
LaDaddy says:
04/16/09 11:11AM
.........gl today
RedDustRising says:
04/16/09 11:14AM


I said the same with Vasquez 2 night ago. That didnt work out.
jlippens says:
04/16/09 11:15AM


Absolutely, of course any + money dog that you believe has a better than 50/50 chance of winning warrants betting (while still employing proper money management, anyway.)

Whatever excuse Betjamaica is giving you, you don't care. They might have set you up on a promotional rate that's expired, or they might just be looking to get you to move elsewhere. I assume its the first, as generally, Betjam/TheGreek are all on the up and up with bettors and customer service.

But in any case, yes. I'd seriously consider going to *both* 5Dimes and Matchbook, in order to shop. You really shouldn't have your money at only one book. The fewer the options you have the less money you make. It's just like shopping for anything else. Rarely do people not look for the best deal. This should be treated the same way. Employ multiple books. It's your money.
IlliniBill says:
04/16/09 12:02PM
Go Redbirds and Padres!!  Hate to see ya on the Fish though.

 

Best of luck with the rest though, looks solid.

 

 

If you haven't locked in the M's, let me show you some stats.

Saunders was 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in 08 VS Sea

He is 3-0 at Sea  lifetime

He is 8-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 April Starts.

Coverdatspred says:
04/16/09 12:33PM
BOL today wilt.....weird game last night with Dodgers/Giants huh?  Looks like we were both right in some capacity with our take on that game.  Probably should have ended 2-1 Dodgers but the pens took a shit and messed up Kershaw's gem of a game. 

Fla

San Diego 


Not sure I like your take on the M's today....The Angels will respond after last nights drubbing with Saunders on the mound.


jtmoney87 says:
04/16/09 12:40PM
Good Luck today Wilter
smac38 says:
04/16/09 12:43PM
therealdjlaura says:
04/16/09 12:43PM
 
wilterdink says:
04/16/09 04:20PM
Florida +113 (2 units) +2.26
Hou/Pit over 9.5 -105 (1 unit) 

  -1.05
St Louis -101 (1 unit)
Cleveland +175 (1 unit)
SD +110 (2 units) 
Washington +122 (1 unit)
Phi/Was under 10 -120 (1 unit)
Seattle +140 (1 unit)

Thursday results: 1-1 +1.21 units

jlippens says:
04/16/09 04:33PM
Not even Cliff Lee can screw up this Cliff Lee gem !!
wilterdink says:
04/16/09 05:12PM
Adding one late play....

CWS/TB under 9 even (1 unit)  Niemann has great stuff. Control problems got him in trouble at Baltimore, but the Sox don't have the good left handed bats that Baltimore does. Danks is solid and without Longoria, most of Tampa's offense is left handed (Iwamura, Pena and Crawford). If you are able to bet 5 innings, I like the first 5 under stronger than the game under because of the Sox pen.
wilterdink says:
04/16/09 05:27PM
Florida +113 (2 units) +2.26
Hou/Pit over 9.5 -105 (1 unit) 

  -1.05
St Louis -101 (1 unit)   +1.0
Cleveland +175 (1 unit)    +1.75
SD +110 (2 units) 
CWS/TB under 9 even (1 unit)
Washington +122 (1 unit)
Phi/Was under 10 -120 (1 unit)
Seattle +140 (1 unit)

Thursday results: 3-1 +3.96 units

ditter says:
04/16/09 05:59PM
Congrats so far. you got the picks, now you just gotta get better lines. You may lose a unit tonite just with all the extra juice you're paying. And over the course of a season....ugh.

 

But keep the picks rolling.

wilterdink says:
04/17/09 12:52AM
Florida +113 (2 units) +2.26
Hou/Pit over 9.5 -105 (1 unit) 

  -1.05
St Louis -101 (1 unit)   +1.0
Cleveland +175 (1 unit)    +1.75
SD +110 (2 units)  +2.20
CWS/TB under 9 even (1 unit)    +1.0
Washington +122 (1 unit)    +1.22
Phi/Was under 10 -120 (1 unit)  PUSH
Seattle +140 (1 unit)    -1.0

Thursday results: 6-2 +7.38 units 

As Allen Iverson once said...."Call me butter cuz I'm on a roll"

jlippens says:
04/17/09 12:55AM

Baseball

has been....bery bery goob to me...

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