I will be leaving tomorrow for Detroit, so I'm posting my final four write-ups now. I don't condone gambling, so use this information however you wish. These are simply my opinions to give you the perspective of one person who follows college basketball closely.
Michigan St vs UConn -4 o/u 133.5
For an inter-conference match-up, there is some good comparable data
to go off of since UConn has played 3 of the other Big “10? tournament
teams. They won all 3 with the following scores:
Wisconsin 72-60
Michigan 69-61
Purdue 72-60
See a pattern? Looks like Michigan St is in in for a 71-60 loss.
This is only part of the reason why we like UConn. Yes, Michigan St
should have a slight home court advantage and yes, I’ve been dogging
them all tournament and they keep covering. Why will this time be
different?
UConn should be able to defense MSU’s perimeter with Austrie, Price
and Walker. They all have the quickness to stay with Lucas, Walton and
Lucious. I do worry about the Thabeet/Souton match-up. Souton has been
on a roll from the outside making the pick and pop play a weapon that
UConn may not have an answer for. I am figuring the mere presence of
Thabeet will rush Souton’s shots reducing his effectiveness.
The rebounding war inside will be fun to watch as both teams are
physical and have dominated their opponents on the boards this year. I
don’t think either team will have a decided advantage inside.
After beating Marquette, Jim Calhoun said this is one of the most
talented teams he’s coached (even without Dyson). They have skill and
athleticism at every position. They do lack depth, but that shouldn’t
come into play with the long tv timeouts.
Based on their talent level, determination and past success against
the Big 10 this year, I like UConn to win by 10. It definitely won’t be
easy though. As far as the total goes, it’s a very good number and I
can see it going either way. If you need to pick one side or the other,
I would take the over. The big stage, the urgency of being so close to
a national championship, and high talent level should lead to above
average points. Three of UConn’s 4 tournament games have gone over and
the one under was by 1/2 point. MSU games are 2-2 against the total.
PREDICTION: UConn 74 MSU 64
Side: UConn -4 Total: no play