NIT picks for tonight

Penn St +11 (1 unit)
This line is way too high and it's most likely due to the injuries to Cornley and Battle. Both look like they'll play tonight. Penn St is a veteran team who won't be intimidated by the road crowd. Florida won only 2 home conference games by 12+. They beat Vandy by 14, who is comparable to Penn St and Georgia by 26. This is only a 1 unit play because of the following:
- Florida will have the best player on the floor (Nick Calathes)
- Penn St was blown out on the road 4 times this year (Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio St)
My eye test has Florida a 6 or 7 point winner.

bay/aub over 143.5 (2 units)
My best formula picked this over. The formula is 11-2 on totals the past 2 weeks with one loss being by 1 point and the other was the wi/xav over which wasn't close. Both teams like to run and neither team is known for their defense. I agree with the formula and only an auburn blowout will keep it under.

Wednesdays rebound

Last night wasn't good. 1-4-1 for -6.7 units

It's a busy day so I don't have time for write-ups on todays plays...

Portland +4.5 (1 unit)
Duq/VT under 152 (2 units)
Jax/Fla over 147 (1 unit)
Kansas St -7 (2 units)

BOL to everyone. Build up those bank rolls in time for the real tournament.

NIT picks for tonight

Here are my favorite NIT plays tonight:

Notre Dame -6 (3U) and over 148 (1U)
How can you not like the Irish on St Patty's Day? They have been one of the best home teams the past few years. UAB has also under achieved this year. They are a fairly soft team, so the Irish will welcome the break from the Big East and roll big. Harangody should have a field day against Kinard and both teams will enjoy a lot of open 3's. PREDICTION: ND 92 UAB 76

URI/Niagara under 155 (1U)
Two up tempo teams so it will be fun to watch (if it's even on tv). Niagara likes to press and they create turnovers with their length and athleticism. URI is not very good defensively, but they have shooters that can score led by the coaches son. The reason I like the under is that these teams combined have gone under 8 of 11 games where the o/u total was 150+ and only 1 of the 3 games that went over, were there more than 160 points scored.

Rider +4 (2U)
It's not often that Rider is considered the big school but tonight they are. I believe the number is towards Liberty because they have the big name in Seth Curry. However, he's only a freshman and not near the all around player his brother is. I like Rider to win straight up. PREDICTION: Rider 76  Liberty 73

Washington St/St Mary's under 119 (3U)
Two defensive minded teams (38.7% and 41.9% FG against). Mills is still shaking the rust off from being out for a month with his broken wrist. St Mary's w... [More]

Early picks for 3/12/09

Yesterday was successful, but not super profitable as we went 6-4 for +2.4 units. Today there's even more action to choose from!

I found a few good plays for the morning/afternoon. I will add more to this thread as I find more good plays.

Iowa/Michigan under 118.5 5 units 1:30 pm

Michigan is a horrible road team as they only shoot 38% away from home. Neither team is flashy on offense and both play good defense. In their two meetings this year, they scored 112 and 113 in regulation. One game went OT which added an extra 18 points to the total.

These teams love to shoot 3's so points can come in bunches. However, in conference tournaments, unders have been prevalent largely due to the games being in large venues which don't have as good of shooting back grounds as campus gyms. This game is going to be ugly. Unless one team gets hot from 3 point range, I don't see this going over.

Clemson -9.5 4 units 1:20 pm

This is a system play as my best system likes it. Clemson won the first two meetings by 8 and 14 points. I like the fact that GTech is young and Clemson is experienced. Experience is usually a big factor in tournament play. Look for Clemson to create turnovers and easy baskets.

St Louis/Xavier over 122 3 units 11 am

This game will depend on who sets the pace. Xavier likes a faster pace and St Louis tends to slow it down. The Billikins have picked up the pace lately scoring over 60 in their last... [More]

Early Wednesday plays after 4-1(+6.6 units) day yesterday

Typically I have a 5-4-3-2 and 1 unit play each day. With the tournaments having games all day, I'll just post plays in this thread as I research them and assign my units played to each.

Providence -9 4 units 11 am

DePaul did it for us. They won a game. Now that they're happy, they can go home. I still think DePaul has talent, but much like Notre Dame, they play no defense. Providence is a veteran team with good guard play. The exact type of team that wins in tournaments. They also have balanced scoring, so they'll be able to exploit the many holes in what DePaul calls 'defense'.

Providence won the only other meeting at home by 8 where DePaul shot only 35%. That game prevents this from being a 5 unit play. Efejuku had his way with DePaul last game and he's coming off his best game of the season, so look for him to get to the rim and wreak havoc.

I love Providence and I lean towards the over (143.5) as I see Providence scoring at least 85.

LaSalle -3.5 5 units 11 am

It's another one of those puzzling lines. LaSalle won at St Louis just a few weeks ago by 6. They've won 4 straight including a big win at Temple (by 15) giving them one of their two home losses this year. St Louis was a miserable 2-9 SU on the road this year. They have been covering spreads lately (9-2 last 11), but I thin if LaSalle wins, they should cover this small number

Colorado +13.5 3 units 2 pm

I went into this t... [More]

My top 5 plays for tonight

It's been a rough 3 days, but today has started well winning with DePaul, the under, and the under in the Emich/Cmich game. I have a play in for G-town right now and here are my 5 best plays for tonight.

5 star play

Seton Hall -4.5

This line opened at 5.5 and has gone down. Not sure why. Seton Hall won the only meeting at home by 15. South Florida has been terrible on the road (1-13 SU, shooting 40%). Seton Hall has good guard play which is what wins in tournaments. Seton Hall is 5-1 ATS against South Florida in their brief Big East history.

On a side note, the total is 130 right now. I like the under because South Florida is so bad on the road, but they play solid defense and like a slow pace. However, 5 of the 6 games between these two have gone over (including their only meeting this year), so the under is just a small play for me.

4 star play

Weber St -12

I typically like the dogs in conference tournament play, but as Gonzaga proved last night...when you have a dominant team in a small conference, no number is large enough. The two teams split, each winning on the road. Weber St shot an unconscious 67% in their 20 point win. Neither team shot great or poor in Montana St's win, but that game was played 2 months ago.

Montana St came stumbling into the tournament losing 5 straight and 8 of 9. They upset their instate rival in the opening round, but this one will be over early. The favorite is 9-... [More]

First Big East win for DePaul?

I like DePaul +6 vs Cincy in the Garden

DePaul was absolutely horrible this year going 0-18. It's somewhat puzzling because they have two very good players in Tucker and Koswal and one of the better outside threats in the league with Walker. In their only meeting this year, Cincinnati got up early (by 9 at half) and held on for a 4 points win on the road. The two stats that jump out from that game are that Cincy shot 50% from 3 point range and they out rebounded DePaul by 15 (9 more offensive).
I expect the shooting to go down, but the rebounding could be a problem. However, I still think this game means more to DePaul and their talent level is just as good as Cincinnati. Another factor which leans me towards DePaul is that these two met in the first round of the tourney last year and DePaul won by 60-54) as a 5 point under dog.
I can't say that I feel DePaul will win outright, but it wouldn't surprise me. I think this is a pick em game, so take the 6 points.

Big East rebound from 1-4 Friday

DOUBLE 5 STAR PLAY OF THE DAY! (3-1 this year)

Marquette -5.5 (1 pm)

I've been waiting for this game for a while. It's senior night in Milwaukee, and arguably 3 of the best recruits Marquette has had will be playing their last game at the Bradley Center, at which they are 16-1 this year with the only loss coming to top ranked UConn.

Look for Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews to put on a show for their injured running mate Dominic James. Marquette always plays hard and is resilient, but today they will take it up yet another notch. Syracuse is a gimmie game compared to the last 3 opponents (Louisville, UConn, Pitt). Marquette, although short handed, stayed right with the elite teams in the country.

Syracuse doesn't play intense defense so McNeal and Matthews should be able to penetrate and get layups. Syracuse also struggles with transition defense as both Flynn and Harris tend to zone out for periods of games. Marquette will miss James to slow down Flynn, but Syracuse will be down big very early and won't be able to recover.

Warriors 88 Orangemen 64

5 star play

UConn +3' (11 am)

Blair and the Panthers manhandled the Huskies and Thabeet last game. Now they are the hunted and UConn are the hunters. I expect Thabeet to play much better after being embarrassed the first time. The biggest reason I like UConn is that LeVance Fields may not play and if he does, I'm sure his sore back will limit him.... [More]

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better than yesterday

Yesterday: 1-4  -6.0 units...+3.5 units for the week

5 star play

Long Beach St -2

The 49ers have had an up and down season. They still have a chance to win the Big West conference, but losing to Northridge last week made the chances slim. LBSU won by 13 earlier in the year at home. Poly is 4-12 ATS in conference play and 1-7 in their last 8 home games. This line seems awfully low, but we won’t complain.

4 star play

Miami Ohio -8.5

At first I had this as a 2 star play, but the more I look at it, the more I like the Red Hawks to win by double digits. They beat Bowling Green by 9 on the road in the first meeting. It’s senior night and Miami has 3 seniors who are major contributors including the conference player of the year candidate, Michael Bramos. I’m not big on emotion as being a factor, but when you have this many experienced seniors who are major contributors, Senior night definitely becomes a factor. I like Miami at this number even if it wasn’t senior night, but the added emotion makes it more of a lock to me.

3 star play

Cal St Northridge -1

The league leader has a chance to clinch the Big West title tonight @ Cal Davis. CSN is 8-1 SU against Davis in the last 9 including a 3 point win at home earlier this year. Davis is only 3-4 SU @ home in conference games including a loss to  last place Cal Poly. When the much better team is getting points, take them. ... [More]

POD's...+4.5 units yesterday....+9.5 this week

Yesterday we went 3-2 gaining 4.5 units for you. Today we plan to keep the good week rolling. I apologize for the late post, but it's been a busy day. It's never too late to take money from your man!

5 star play

Mississippi +5

The Rebels have been less than stellar on the road, but they've been very good against Arkansas. They are 15-7 ATS versus the Razorbacks and they won the first meeting by 9. The Rebels have shown some resiliency going 6-1 ATS after losses. Most of my top formulas predict Mississippi will win outright and my best formula has Arkansas by 1.

4 star play

North Texas -13

It's tournament time for the Sun Belt. Florida Atlantic has been horrible mainly due to a lack of defense. They went 0-17 on the road this year and North Texas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. North Texas only won by 9 in their only other meeting this year (at NT). Florida Atl has lost by at least 13 in their last 4 road games against weaker opponents. This one should be over early.

3 star play

Oklahoma +4'

Riding the best team in the country now that they have all their bullets back in their holster. Missouri will come right at them, but Oklahoma is both talented and deep. They always play well under pressure and have only lost 1 game with their team at full strength. Missouri has been hot at home, but they have no answer for the best player in the country...Blake Griffin. Take the points, even though you... [More]

Over 60% last month on NBA!!!!

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POD - Villanova +3

Notre Dame is typically a very good home team and are playing well right now, whereas Villanova is struggling. So why do I like the Wildcats? They typically do much better against fast paced teams like Notre Dame than they do against the teams who like to make it a half court game as shown by their 8-1 ATS record against teams who average 70+ points per game. I still believe Notre Dame is a poor defensive team despite their recent success.

Both teams need a win, so I don’t think urgency plays a role in this one. I suggest taking Villanova on the money line as their guards are very strong and should be able to penetrate and get easy baskets.

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