Doing some look ahead research tonight. We're getting a 225.5 total for the suns/rockets game tomorrow. These have been two of the hottest offences since the allstar break and they have been lighting it up and running up the score. I capped this game somewhere in the 230-233 range. I see this total climbing tomorrow and I'm getting this one locked in early before it rises.

 

1 unit O225.5

 

Hopefully these guys aren't looking forward to going out and hitting up the club and they actually show up. Thats the only way I see this one going under.  hooray to the run and gun

Loving this spot tonight for the maple leafs. The trade deadline has passed and the leafs can quit worrying about who is leaving town and who is staying. These guys can finally relax and play hard. If you look at Gerbers numbers this season this guy seems to dominate after long layoffs. Hopefully this will be the case tonight. The caps on the other hand are in a bit of a funk lately and have been letting up their share of goals. Theo is in net tonight and averages close to 3 Goals a game against. THUS we have two plays as we can get some great value in the leafs tonight.

 

1 unit Tor O2.5

1 unit Tor ML +255

Just finished watching the raps game and I'm very impressed by the addition of Shawn Marrion. Obviously, it took a couple of games for the team to begin to gel and I really liked what I saw from Marrion. These guys are beginning to understand the idea of pushing the pace in the game and how it opens up the floor. I think this will be a huge positive change for the raptors as many of their players lack the ability to create shots off the dribble (ie. the Kaponos, Parker, Calderone, Ukic, etc). Calderon seemed to have some trouble with this idea but seems to be settling into the increased pace. The past couple of games you could just see the kind of awkwardness with Marrion pushing the ball upcourt while everyone kind of looked at him and slowly marched up the court waiting to get into a half court set. But today you could finally see that the lightbulb had gone off and everyone was looking to fill the lanes and look for those outlet passes. Marrion seemed to to lead the offense just by pushing the ball constantly.

 

I think this style can really work with the raptors and allow their stagnant offence to regain itself. Our team is young and should be able to run but has been still left in a half court set offence, the remains from the Smitch era in Toronto. I know making the playoffs is a long shot at best and I almost want to see the raptors tank just to resign marion and pick up a stud draft pick to make one last push before the 2010 free agent frenzy comes with Bosh, but at least the rest of this season should be watchable from a raptors fans point of view as the first half of this season has been painful.

Just crunched some numbers...been working on a first Q system. Word of warning went 0-2 last night (although the knicks shot over 70% for that first Q to kill the under).

System Record: 0-2

 

Just a quick work on this system and how it works seeing as no one ever wants to tell people how they have created a system on covers.

It takes into account:

1. Last 3 first Quarters / points for and against

2. Situation ie. b2b/1 day rest etc and the points for/points against for the first Q

3. Last 5 road/home (depending if at home/road) points for/points against

 

I use the standard deviations and means to figure out my plays if any. If there is a SD of over 5 I automatically throw out any plays on totals because there is too much variance in the results.

 

Okay as for OKC @ SAC

 

Using the system we come up with

OKC Points for: 24.47  Points Against: 27.2

SAN Points for: 22.78 Points Against: 19.91

 

OKC is 1-4 in its last 5 B2Bs

SAN is 3-1-1 in its last 5 1 day rest games

 

The total is set at 49 here. And these two team's are averaging ~47 for the first Q using my criteria. However, the Spurs are the better team here and WILL control the pace of play, where their margins of victory are averaging roughly 2 points a quarter. As well their last 5 quarters at home are averaging a total of 43. The last 3 played head to head against these two teams average 48 points per first quarter with too much variance in teh results. Therefore we throwout the play on the under here. However, with OKC getting 4.5 points in what should be a close and low scoring total I expect for OKC to cover here. If you look at a lot of OKC's games they play half decent for the first Q and fall a part later.