NBA
7:30pm - Orlando Magic @ New Jersey Nets: Orlando -6
8:00pm - Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota +2
9:00pm - Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz: Under 228
NOTE: Lines may have changed since the time I locked in bets on the
above games. Please check your book for the latest up-to-date line
information and bet accordingly.
Good Luck.
Selections with the *TOP PLAY* designation are 2 unit wagers (2 x the regular wager amount)
MLB
1:00pm - Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds: Under 9
1:00pm - Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians: Toronto -110, Under 9.5
4:00pm - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics: Seattle -108 *TOP PLAY*
4:00pm - Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels: Under 8.5
4:00pm - Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals: St. Louis -117
4:00pm - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: Over 8.5
6:00pm - New York Mets @ Florida Marlins: Florida -138
7:00pm - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves: Washington +140, Over 9
7:00pm - New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals: NY Yankees -1.5
7:00pm - Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles: Over 9
7:00pm - Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers: Chicago -124
8:00pm - Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies: Over 10
8:00pm - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Over 10
10:00pm - San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres: Over 6.5
NOTE: Lines may have changed since the time I locked in bets on the
above games. Please check your book for the latest up-to-date line
information and bet accordingly.
Good Luck.
MLB 4:00pm - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics: Seattle -108
Analysis:
Sometimes when you shop around you get a bargain and we have a HUGE
bargain price here to back an outstanding young pitcher in Seattle's
Felix Hernandez at basically even money against a virtual unknown
rookie for Oakland in Josh Outman. This is one of the biggest pitching
mismatches of the early season that I have seen so far particularly
when you think about the fact the price tag for King Felix in this game
is just as a small favourite and incredibly this game actually opened
with Seattle at even money. The Mariners are quickly putting last
season's disaster behind them and have started 2009 off very well.
Hernandez was simply phenomenal in his first start against Minnesota as
he gave up just one run in eight innings en route to a 6-1 Seattle win.
Minnesota simply couldn't hit him and that is going to prove to be once
again challenging for a very mediocre Athletics offense. King Felix is
3-1 in his L4 starts against Oakland and the one pitcher that bested
him in that lone loss was Joe Blanton who is no longer with the A's.
Meanwhile, Josh Outman is in his rookie season with Oakland and is
making his first ever start in the majors today and what a tough
matchup for him in his very first outing. Outman did have a couple
bullpen stints with the Athletics in 2008 and didn't have overly
impressive numbers. He gave up 14 runs in 25
innings pitched last year with Oakland and this is just a very rough
welcoming to him as a Major League starter going up against a young
phenom with the ability to just dominate opposing hitters in Felix
Hernandez.
Baseball is such a different animal to bet from other sports and a
major part of my baseball handicapping tactics are combining matchup
edges mostly regarding pitching, situational edges and tremendous money
line value. We have all three of those things in this game in Seattle's
favour as we are getting a bargain price with the vastly superior
pitcher at a price we likely will not see for the rest of the season
with a pitcher like Felix Hernandez who many people think could be a Cy
Young winner somewhere down the road. The Mariners do not have the
strongest bullpen but that is negated by the fact that Felix Hernandez
typically goes deep into ballgames mostly pitching all the way up to
either the 7th or 8th inning in the majority of his starts. Seattle
should be able to get their share of runs off Outman as they are
averaging over 4 runs per game so far this season while Hernandez will
take care of the rest.
Bonus Play: An additional way to take advantage of this game would be a small play with Seattle pk -113 (5 inning RL)
as the Mariners should be able to obtain the lead by the midway point
of the game with the strong pitching from Hernandez to back them up.
Good Luck.
Selections with the *TOP PLAY* designation are 2 unit wagers (2 x the regular wager amount)
NBA
1:00pm - Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks: Toronto +2.5
3:00pm - Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers: Philadelphia -3
7:00pm - Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta +2 *TOP PLAY*
8:30pm - Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee -7
NCAA Final Four
6:00pm - Michigan State vs. Connecticut: Under 134.5 *TOP PLAY*
8:45pm - Villanova vs. North Carolina: Villanova +7.5, Over 159
NOTE: Lines may have changed since the time I locked in bets on the above games. Please check your book for the latest up-to-date line information and bet accordingly.
Enjoy the games and good luck.
NCAA Tournament Semifinal 6:00pm - Michigan State vs. Connecticut: Under 134
Analysis:
This is going to be a low scoring ugly hard fought defensive battle. Forget the 130's or maybe even the 120's because the final total of this game could be in the 110's range when all is said and done. These are two teams that will be hard pressed to find easy shots in this game. Everything will be contested. Neither team presses very often. Neither team turns the ball over very much meaning very few opportunities for easy transition baskets. Neither team fouls a lot which means very little points coming at the line with the clock stopped. Both teams will run time off the shot clock with their possessions. So where are the baskets going to come from? We must also keep in mind that both teams will have to adjust to playing in a cavernous environment for a basketball game in a football type of stadium the size of Ford Field which is a situation where your shooting eye can really be thrown off because the players aren't used to playing in such a big stadium where gauging shot ranges becomes much more difficult and that could result in even more scoring droughts during the game some of which could last for a couple minutes in addition to all the defensive elements in this game. All of these factors should add up to an under and the chances are good that it could come fairly easy. The only way I see this game going over the total is if it goes to overtime and we'll take our chances that it won't.
Enjoy the games and good luck.