Posted Thursday, October 06, 2011 03:19 PMI'll
reiterate again that I don't handicap NHL. I can't even name 5 players
in the league. I do handicap odds movement and situations. Basically,
this hockey betting system is predicated on the fact that there is just
not that many people wagering on this sport. Therefore, major 'odds'
moves are more so influenced by the 'sharps' than some of the more
popular sports like football, basketball, and baseball. Hopefully the
system shows the profit again this year.
I'm going to play 1/3 of my normal bet amount on these wagers.
Let's get to it:
2011 NHL
#1: Philadelphia Flyers +120
Good luck!
=========================================
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
6 - 2 @ 75% for +4.0 Units
Thur 10/06
#1: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 innings) +150
Game
1.5 (get it?) rematch here between Fister and Nova. The key here is to
determine who is a better pitcher. Take a look at what Fister has done
over his last 8 games of the regular season: 56 innings of work, 25
hits, 4 ER’s, and 52 K’s to 4 BB’s. Truly incredible. Sure he didn’t
face the ‘best’ offenses in the league but those numbers are still
spectacular. His xFIP in the month of September was a slick 2.19 with
9.0 K/9 and 0.79 BB/9 for an 11.33 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, Nova
had his worst month in September since May, with a 4.55 xFIP and a
measly 1.42 K/BB ratio.
Let’s also compare each pitcher in terms
of how they did against the top-5 offenses in the American League this
year (Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Royals):
Fister:
KC: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 5 ER
DET: 6.1 inn / 5 hits / 2 ER
BOS: 5.2 inn / 5 hits / 0 ER
DET: 8.0 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 7.2 inn / 6 hits / 4 ER
NYY: 7.0 inn / 7 hits / 3 ER
TEX: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 2 ER
KC: 7.2 inn / 4 hits / 1 ER
Total:
56.1 inn / 50 hits / 21 ER for a 3.36 ERA. Not too bad especially
considering the offensive output of the lineups he faced.
Nova:
BOS: 4.1 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 4.1 inn / 4 hits / 5 ER
TEX: 7.1 inn / 2 hits / 0 ER
KC: 3.0 inn / 10 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 5.2 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
KC: 5.1 inn / 9 hits / 7 ER
BOS: 6.1 inn / 8 hits / 4 ER
Total: 36.1 inn / 47 hits / 28 ER for a 6.98 ERA. Hmm…
The
interesting thing here is that Nova hasn’t faced the Tigers during the
regular season. Actually, he has never started against them (had 2
innings of relief work against them last year) until game 1.5 of this
playoff series. Nova went 6.1 innings in that start, allowed 4 hits and
2 ER’s. He had 5 strike-outs to 4 walks. He left the game in the 9th
with bases loaded and 1 one. Ayala gave up a ground-out and a single to
account for the 2 runs that were applied to Nova. The important factor
to take away here is that the ‘unfamiliarity’ angle is gone. Even in
his first start against the Tigers, Nova issued 4 walks in 6 innings of
work (pretty inefficient). How is he going to fare against them today,
when they get to see him for the second time in a week? Well, maybe his
6.98 ERA against the best hitting offenses in AL is a good indicator of
his ‘expected’ future performance.
Speaking of that first
game, Fister’s box-score shows that he went 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits
and 6 ER’s with 6 K’s to 2 BB’s. If you watched the game you would have
noticed that he struggled in the first inning he pitched, but got out
of it without giving up any runs. He then went on to pitch 3 very solid
innings allowing 1 ER prior to running into some trouble in the 6th
where with 2 outs he gave up 2 consecutive singles and a walk. Fister
exited the game with bases loaded and 2 outs, when Alburquerque promptly
gave up a grand slam crediting 3 more ER’s to Fister. Overall, was it a
great outing? No. Was it as bad as the box-score showed? Not really.
I’m sure it wasn’t easy for either Fister or Nova to come into a game
already in progress. Today both pitchers will start the game from the
first inning and I expect Fister to be the one to outperform his
opponent.
I also want to point out Fister’s L/R splits: 3.75
xFIP against lefties with a 3.56 K/BB and 3.43 xFIP against righties
with a 4.75 K/BB. Both are very solid and above average. Nova’s L/R
splits are: 4.37 xFIP with 1.45 K/BB against lefties and 3.95 xFIP with
a 2.08 against righties. Both are below average and his performance
against lefties is very poor. I expect Leyland to have a couple more
lefties in this Tigers lineup tonight. I also want to point out that
Nova’s home xFIP of 4.48 is much worse than his road xFIP of 3.82. His
home HR/9 rate is 1.05 compared to 0.34 on the road. All these factors
are very critical, and favor the Tigers here.
A couple days ago
I’ve explained my concern with Tigers’ BP, especially their closer
Valverde. This is the reason I’m playing this one for the first 5
innings only, as Yankees’ BP is much more dominant.
Finally I’ve
compared all the starting pitchers in AL this year that have enough
‘innings’ to qualify, top 40 pitchers in terms of innings and starts.
Fister has the 12th best xFIP at 3.62 and 3.03 FIP (5th) compared to
Nova’s 33rd ranked 4.15 xFIP and 4.01 FIP (24th). Fister’s xFIP is
better than Lester’s, Weaver’s, Masterson’s, Romero’s, and Scherzer’s.
Nova’s is better than Carmona’s, Francis’, Guthrie’s, Brad Penny’s, and
Vargas’. Now tell me, which pitcher you’d like to back in a pivotal
game 5? I expect majority of the public to back the Yankees as they’ll
only be comparing the box-scores from game 1.5 starts between Fister and
Nova, while using superficial reasons as ‘Yankees have momentum’ and
‘Yankees want it more’, etc. We’ll know better though!
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +.98 Units
Tue 10/04
#1: Texas Rangers +102
I've
faded Hellickson in his last start and even though he won that one, I
promised myself that I'm going right back to fading him next time he's
on the mound. Well, that time is today. Speaking of that 'last time',
it was a game against the Yankees which Tampa won 5-3 when they came
back from a 3-2 deficit late in the game. Looking at that game,
Hellickson gave up 6 hits in 6 innings of work with 1 HR, 5 walks, and
only 1 K. Surprisingly he only allowed 3 ER's. He got out of 2
bases-loaded situations, one of which was a triple play. He also had a
couple of double-plays that ended an inning and minimized some 'damage'
in the other (1 run scored when Yankees had men on 1st and 3rd with zero
outs). Frankly, Hellickson got very LUCKY. It's one thing to have
dynamic stuff to be able to 'get out of jams' (e.g. Verlander, Halladay)
and it's another one having luck on your side. Hellickson has a measly
1.63 K/BB, 4.44 FIP (#165 in the league) and 4.72 xFIP (#206 in the
league). At the same time he has a terrible 35% GB-rate. With all
these factors how in the world is his ERA below 3? Well, the
'unfamiliarity' angle is one factor, as he was a rookie this year,
facing teams for the first time. But a better explanation is his .223
BABIP (13th lowest out of all starting pitchers) and 82% strand-rate
(league average is 70%). Bottom line is that it's safe to expect some
major regression to the mean here. He does NOT deserve to have an ERA
below 3.0 and there's some excellent 'value' in fading him. In
addition, his 5.33 xFIP in September with a 0.69 K/BB rate (2.94 K/9 and
4.28 BB/9 -- WOW!) is another huge 'warning' sign. You won't see it
just by looking at his 'mainstream' stats where Hellickson has a 2.67
ERA with a 2-0 record and .172 BA for the month. Once again the .158
BABIP and 86% strand-rate came into play here. Well I see his luck
running out tonight against another potent offensive squad like the
Rangers. And even if he continues to have 'luck' on his side, Rangers
have the better starter on the mound, better offense, and a better
bullpen. I see this series ending today.
#2: New York Yankees -104
I
know everyone likes to 'hate' on AJ Burnett. He does have a 5.15 ERA
on the season with 31 HR's allowed and a 11-11 record. But looking into
his numbers a little deeper, one could see that Burnett hasn't been as
bad as his #'s show. He pitches in a 'hitter's park' so his FIP should
be naturally inflated but when you take into account league-average
HR/rate, his xFIP of 3.86 is pretty decent. Actually, it's the lowest
it's been in the past 3 seasons. Burnett's K/9 came in at 8.18,
improvement from 6.99 last year. His BB/9 stayed pretty much the same,
while his GB-rate improved from 42% in '09, to 45% in '10, to 49% this
year. Part of the reason his ERA is so high is his 17% HR/FB rate,
which is way higher than his 11.3% career average. Why are these
factors important? Well, in a big ballpark like Comerica, it's harder
to hit homeruns and the fact that Burnett is able to induce an almost
50% ground-ball rate is a significant factor as well. I know this is
also a 'factor' for Porcello's success who has a 51% GB-rate this year.
But Porcello's xFIP of 4.02 is higher and his 5.14 K/9 is lower than
Burnett's. To me, Porcello is a worse pitcher of the two and I love
backing 'better' starting pitchers in the post-season. (Heck, during
the regular season as well!) Comparing the last month of the season
between the two, Porcello had a 3.84 xFIP in September with a very
mediocre 1.60 K/BB rate. Burnett had a stellar month, with a slick 2.76
xFIP (his lowest by far this season...next lowest was 3.84 in July) and
3.27 K/BB. His 11.05 K/9 rate was the highest of the year as he was in
a very nice groove to end the season. Finally, let's take a look at
each pitcher's last 2 starts against their opponent tonight:
Burnett against Detroit: 12 innings / 8 hits / 5 ER's / 1 HR / 11 K's to 2 BB's
Porcello against Yankees: 13 innings / 14 hits / 8 ER's / 0 HR / 5 K's to 5 BB's
I think I've made the case why Burnett is the better pitcher on the mound in this matchup.
I'll
also make the case why the Yankees have an advantage in the bullpen and
it's very simple: Jose Valverde. It's only a matter of time before he
blows a save. I don't care about his perfect 'save ratio' so far this
year, as he's a terrible closer IMO. The guy has a 4.23 BB/9 ratio,
4.01 xFIP, and a .247 BABIP rate. He's already issued 4 walks, gave up 2
hits and 1 HR in his last 2 innings in this series. Martin hit one
pretty well off him yesterday only to be caught at a warning track (I
thought he was going to tie the game with that hit). I know that
Valverde has thrown a ton of pitches last 2 games and I'm not sure if
he'd be used in a potential 'save' situation today, but I sure hope so.
(Obviously hopefully it won't get to it, as Yankees would have a 5-run
lead going into the 9th
) I like the other arms in this Tigers bullpen and overall this unit
has been performing very well in the last month or so. But if it's
Valverde against the Bombers in a 1-run game in the 9th, I wouldn't feel
hopeless at all.
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units
Mon 10/03
#1: Texas Rangers +118
I
like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of
September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63
K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits
and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is
average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think
that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is
Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in
September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest
this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts
he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10
hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is
0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd
best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success
against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.
#2: Detroit Tigers -125
In
the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home.
Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was
cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on
the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important?
In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in
Detroit:
04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
It's
safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the
same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in
Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there
something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what
I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th
best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees'
offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure
they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during
the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many
losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like
Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.
Good luck!
=========================================
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
2011-2012 NFL Record:
6 - 11 @ 35% for -6.1 Units
Week 4
#1: Minnesota Vikings -2
#2: Washington Redskins -2
#3: Buffalo Bills -3
#4: New Orleans Saints -6.5
#5: OVER 39.5 MIN/KC
Good luck fellas.
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
-----------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"