Posted Sunday, August 04, 2013 12:46 PM
Posted Saturday, August 03, 2013 06:12 PM
Lots and lots of high lines today. It'll be hard to separate the lines that are legitimately high for a reason vs. lines that inflated and thus have value on the other side.
Here is my attempt at some picks on Sunday:
Cardinals +118: In this rivalry battle between two of the best teams in the National League, this is practically a coin toss and I'll take the dog here. Frankly, I've never seen Mike Leake as a very good pitcher, and it actually really surprises me to see him doing so well this year. Most of his success has been on the road, as he's 7-1 on the road, vs. just 3-3 at home.
Marlins +120: Going back to the well again and taking the Marlins yet again today. I desperately wanted to find an angle and take the Indians, but the Marlins have definitely some advantages on paper. Eovaldi has pitched really well for the year, 46 ip, 36 hits allowed, and he's even been better at home, limiting opponents to a measly .177 average at home. His main problem is walks, and if he can cut that down, the Fish should be able to score a few runs off Kazmir for him. Indians also don't have Swisher or Carlos Santana in the lineup today.
Giants +168: Hard for me to back them again today, but I don't think Roberto Hernandez should be a -195 favorite against anyone. He's by far the weakest link in the Rays rotation. The question will be if Moscoso can give the Giants a quality start. I'll tell you one thing, he can't be worse than Barry Zito (the person he's replacing in the rotation) and he has had some starting experience with the A's a few years back. I'll go with the Giants, who has their back against the wall, in this one.
Looking at a couple more...
Posted Friday, August 02, 2013 12:49 PM
What's up guys? Have a few bets pending (Rangers, Braves and won on the Royals in the AM) but here are some of my thoughts for the rest of the day:
Giants +200: I definitely think that there is some significant value here on the Giants at +200 and Timmy here in this spot. Let's face it, Lincecum is nowhere near the pitcher he was a few years ago when he won back to back CY Youngs, but he still strikes out more than 1 batter per inning (127 ip, 137 Ks). He's actually allowed less hits than innings pitched too (127 ip, 120 hits allowed). So you know he still has dominant stuff. David Price is an amazing pitcher, but he's not invincible. 47.1 ip at home, 53 hits allowed, 1.27 WHIP and 4.18 ERA. And he's only 1-4 at home. At +200, give me the Giants for a unit here!
Marlins +120: I've made it a rule to always look at the Marlins whenever Jose Fernandez and Jacob Turner is pitching, especially at home, and this is definitely a juicy situation here. Most bettors won't back the Marlins because they are prejudiced based on what they hear from the media. Frankly though, the Marlins are putting together an exciting young team, and it all starts with their starting pitching. Jacob Turner has put together quite a season, 71 ip so far, only 60 hits allowed and a 1.19 WHIP. He's done even better at home, throwing 36 innings, and only allowing 26 hits, 0.99 WHIP, and a 2.23 ERA. Opponents are hitting a lowly .205 against him at home. Amazing numbers! Meanwhile, Zach McAllister has been awful on the road, 33 ip, 42 hits allowed, 1.73 WHIP, 4.36 ERA. opponents are hitting .304 off him on the road! Give me the scrappy Marlins as the home dogs here!
Still looking at a couple others here....
Posted Thursday, May 20, 2010 12:30 PM
Looking at this matchup on paper, it seems like a no brainer to take the Dodgers, the better team and the hotter team.
But if you delve deeper and look at the starting pitching matchups, the Cubs do seem to have an advantage there.
Travis Wood, the Cubs lone all star, has put together a magnificent year. 135 ip, only 101 hits allowed, .207 batting average against. At home, he's been even better, 79 ip, only 61 hits allowed, 1.10 WHIP, 2.72 ERA. .211 batting average against at home. Astounding.
Ryu, who has been very good as a pickup from Korea, has struggled a bit on the road. 60 ip, 61 hits allowed, 1.41 WHIP and a 4.62 ERA. Opponents are hitting .264 against him on the road.
At +135, the Cubs have significant value as a home dog.
Good luck everyone.
Posted Sunday, May 16, 2010 12:58 PM
I'm loving the Braves today. They are a different team at home (12-6 this year) and they are coming off a pretty exciting win. What more can you say about Jason Heyward that hasn't already been said? He's a monster and he's getting even more at bats now that they've moved him to the 2 spot in the lineup. Eric Hinske has been a pleasant surprise for them. And they have Tommy Hanson on the mound.
What the kid Mike Leake has done so far without one inning of minor league baseball has been nothing short of amazing. The kid is 4-0 with a sub 4 era. However, I don't expect him to be perfect every time out and this is a decent spot for him to get his first loss on the road. Also, Scott Rolen and Johnny Gomes (arguably the Reds hottest hitter right now) are out of the lineup today.
As for the Phillies, I look for them to break their modest 2 game losing streak today with a bang. J Roll is back and he gives the team a ton more balance. Phils are 13-7 their last 20 games against right handers. Cubs are without Aramis today (some may call that a blessing). Look for the Phils to bounce back at home.
Even with Mitre pitching, the Yanks have a decided advantage against the Twins at home.
Blackburn is not very good on the road, the Yanks are 8-2 their last 10 against righties, and Blackburn is 0-3 in the last three years at Yankee Stadium.
Mitre just needs to throw 5 and allow the Yanks offense to do it's thang.
Also looking for the Jays to stay hot at home (Morrow's numbers are horrible but the kid has so much potential), a small bet on the Reds (I hate Brad Penny and I think he's so overrated; Gomes is on fire as are the Reds), and I'll be riding the Pirates once again! They are playing well against the Cubbies and at +190, you just can't go wrong!