CSKA vs Omsk over 5.5
Dynamo Moscow vs Yaroslavl over 5.5
MVD Tver vs Niznekamsk under 5.5
Atlant Mytishi vs Lada Togliatti over 5.5
Torpedo vs Bars Kazan over 5.5
Dynamo Minsk vs St. Petersburg under 5.5
Dynamo Riga vs Severstal Cherepovec over 5.5
Zilina vs Trencin over 5.5
Byrnas vs Soddertalje under 5.5
Djurgardens vs Frolunda under 5.5
HV71 vs Rogle over 5.5
Skelleftea vs MoDo over 5.5
Timra vs Farjestads under 5.5
Jokkerit vs Ilves under 5.5
Kaerpat vs Lahti Pelikans under 5.5
Lukko vs IFK Helsinki over 5.5
SaiPa vs Jyp Jyvaskyla under 5.5
Assat Pori vs Blues Espoo over 5.5
Kloten Flyers vs Lugano over 5.5
Langnau Tigers vs Ambri Piotta over 5.5
Rapperswill Jona Lakers vs Biel under 5.5
Servette vs Zurich over 5.5
Zug vs Davos over 5.5
Hope for a 60% strike rate!
The hockey seasons are already in play in Europe and the NHL season is starting to warm up.
I have a special interest in game total betting and I think the totals are easier to predict for hockey and soccer games since the scoring process is a Poisson process.
The scoring in hockey can be fairly enough estimated using the Poisson distribution, because the goals are rare events for most of the leagues, they happen one at a time and knowing the average per unit of time we could calculate the expected number of goals for 60 minutes.
I made a little study today on the games played in european major leagues (Czech Republic Extraliga, Austrian EHL, Switzerland league A, Germany DEL, Slovakia Extraliga, Finnish SM Liiga and Russian KHL).
There were 37 games played in these leagues and I estimated the game total taking into account only the offensive of both teams. I didn't care about the other's team defensive line.
I estimated the total of the game by summing the average goal scoring of the teams. E.g. team A has played 10 games and scored 30 goals wich means 3 goals/game and team B played 12 games an scored 24 golas wich means 2 goals/game; the expected total is 3+2 = 5 goals. Following the probabilities estimated by the Poisson distribution at 5 goals/game, the odds are 61.5% under 5.5.
I didn't use the exact estimation of odds, but instead I used the next rule: if the sum of average goals scored was equal or over 5.7 I predicted over 5.5 and bellow 5.7 I predicted under 5.5.
According to Poisson distribution, the odds are bigger for the under 5.5 when the expected average is less the 5.7 and bigger for the over when the expected average is more or equal 5.7.
Following these rules I got an impressive result: 24 bets of 37 were winners. That means a 64% strike rate at an 1.7 (decimal oods) average. The ROI was 14%.
I have written thge games on an Excel Worksheet and you can take a look at them at http://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Total%20Strike%20Rate.xls.
I will digg more the next days and post the findings. If the strike rate remains over 60% I think it's something.
If you are looking for a new online bookie I advice not to go to Expekt.
They are not playing fair at all. I had some bad experience with that site and I advice you all to stay away from it.
Reasons to stay away:
- they are one of the slowest on the market when it comes to return your winning wagers; sometimes it may take 3 hours after the game completed;
- they are steeling very small amount of money from every bettor's account, by not taking into account the second decimal ( e.g. you bet 0.1 Euro ten times at 1.91 odds and you will see that after winning those ten bets you have 1.9 Euro return instead of 1.91; by repeating this trick thousands of times with thousands of bets, the amount they steel grows);
- after they do the periodic maintance of the site you might have the surprise of a Minus balance and when you ask them what happened they will tell you a wager from last month (something that can't be easily verified) just completed today and they had to take your money back; actually this happened to me today when I was surprised to see that all my winning bets have gone and instead of profit I had a loss.
Please, do not let your self fooled by the low deposit limit (5 Euro) or by the low minimum stake (0.1) or don't think that because they are Nordic they play fair.
Go everywhere else but not at Expekt.
The last four days I lost a lot of bets on the MLB total lines and that made me wonder if the game total can be really predicted.
I went back and took a closer look at the over/under bets I just lost but everything seemed all right.
When you have 2 starters with WHIP over 1.7 starting against batters that are hitting 0.260-0.280, no wind during a gameday what can you expect?
The same thing happens when you have pitchers with low WHIP's going against teams averaging less than 0.250 and the total goes high in all three games of a series.
That made me decide to stop betting the total on baseball games because it's far away from predictability.
I think is very difficult to predict the total in a game where the runs can happen more than one at a time, so they don't follow the laws of poisson distribution.
Do you know a handicapper that can hit more than 55% totals over the long run?
Or my approach is wrong?