o.k. Im 28-22-3 ATS YTD....I had a strong 6-1 ATS picks last weekend and 0-1 on my 7 point teaser pick...On to this Thursday night battle in Morgantown...
It's forecast to be in the low 50's upper 40's light 7MPH breeze during the game and how will that effect Tommy Tubberville's Auburn TIgers(4-3 1-6 ATS)??? Not much I dont think...If it was going to be in the 30's than weather might play a factor but one of his teams played in the Iron Bowl vs Bama in 2000 it was 41 degrees @ kickoff and they won,so weather guys toss that theory out the window! BUT this is Auburn first non-conference away game since 2003 @ Georgia Tech and they lost 17-3 as 8 point favorites!!!
Lets start at QB's...Spread offense here??? An offense with an identity crisis??? YES!!! Kodi Burns(6'1 205 Soph) or Chris Todd(6'4 212 Jr.) which will it be Tommy?? between the two of them the ratio is 5Td's 9 Int's!!! Burns has 198 yards passing 0 TD's 3 Int's completing a horrible 40% of his passes, and is the scrambler of the duo with 116 yards 3.3 per carry and 2 TD's....Chris Todd has 903 yards 5 TD's 6 Int's completing 55.1% of his passes! Low completion %'s ! I say start Fr. Deron Furr who ran the spread in HS but hey do what you please,anything is worth a shot here Tommy....Pat White(6'2 185 Sr.) who has been banged up is WVU starting Qb who missed his last game vs.Syracuse....He has 590 yards 9 Td's and just 1 INT completing 72% of his passes this year!!! He has 428 on the ground averaging 6.1 per carry and 2 Td's as well.....White could have played vs. Cuse but sat out and wanted to be as close to 100% for this game IMO....It's obvious WVUhas the QB edge with White.
Ground game...Auburn bread and butter..well it used to be before this spread...they are led by Ben Tate(5'11 215 Jr.) who has 533 2TD's averaging 4.4 per carry...Tate is a bruiser who needed this bye week bad..A week's rest is what he needed...The only team to contain hm this year was LSU, he was a non factor vs. Arkansaswith 8 carries for 32 yards...Brad Lester(5'11 198 Sr.) has 193 yards 4.0 per carry and 1 TD..This is tough duo Auburn most emphasive using to be effective...WVU is led by Noel Devine (5'8 170 Soph) 692 yards 6.6 percarry and 2 TD's....White is the team #2 rusher....They both have solid run games
Recivers : AU led by Rodgereous Smith(6'0 195 Sr.) who has 21 rec. 212 yards TD...Robert Dunn(6'0 178 Sr.) has 15 rec 172 yards 2 TD's..Montez Billings (6'2 188 Sr.) has 13 rec. 153 yards...WVU led by Jock sanders(5'8 185 Soph) has 28 rec 211 yards 5 TD's....Devine is also a threat out of the backfield with 20 rec. Alric Arnett(6'2 195 Jr,) has 2 Td's and 14 rec....Both are solid groups, AU a slight bit deeper.
O-Lines and defenses:Auburn O-Line has given up 16 sacks!!! Auburn O-Line hasn't adjusted to the spread yet it's clear cut because they are a good group...Their defense is allowing just 23% 3rd down converions!!!!!!Allowing just 272 total yards per game and 3.2 per carry...WVU defense is allowing 320 yards per gameand tough vs the run(3.2) per carry!!!WV is allowing 14.7 points per game and Auburn is allowing 13.1 points per game
O.k let's wrap this up.....Auburb has had the tougher schedulehands down so far playing LSU close 26-21 and otherSEC school games close...That was their largest loss by 5 points..They lost to Ark by 3 and Vandy 1....WV toughest opponent was ECU they lost 24-3...They also lost to a mediocre Colorado team..This isnt the WVU teams of the past on either side of the ball....Auburn is 6-1 all time on Thursdays!!!! In the past 5 years Tubberville hasn't lost 3 in a row and beyond that im not sure if he has but am going to check....He is a solid 12-7 off the bye week!!! I think the extra time to prepare and the bye week is just what the doctor ordered for Auburn....Im Playing Auburn+4