Here are my plays for Saturday
Beware of regression to the mean - I am due for it.
Old Dominion +8 vs Rice
Akron +9.5 vs Marshall
West Virginia +7.5 vs OU
Appalachian State +1.5 vs So Miss
Hawaii +8 vs Colorado
Miami +7.5 vs Nebraska
UNC +2.5 vs ECU
Georgia Southern -3 vs South Alabama
Making a conditional play tonight. Going to take UConn but only if can get at least +3 for the points. If the line is still +2.5 about 15 min before game time, then I am taking UConn on the money line (+120 at 5 Dimes and Diamond).
UConn has 3 criteria in their favor and I have 0 criteria pointing to South Florida. This would normally be considered a low visibility game but since it is the only game in town tonight, more people will be watching each team tonight than for entire remainder of the season.
When this happens, it is probably best to treat the game like any High Visiblity game which means play UConn.
Both games tonight
Kansas State +9 vs Auburn (3*)
Tampa Bay +6.5 vs Atlanta (5* )
Philly was a winner on Monday night
NFL Record for the year is 12 Wins and 3 Losses
This is coming off last year's 60% winning season for the NFL season.
Hey, I think I may be doing something right - but I am curious to see how long this hot run can continue.
I remember when Monday night games used to be the games I would "load up on" in a desperate attempt to "get even for the week".
Those days are gone now that I have learned more about how to bet this game. I don't bet money on Monday night games unless there is a pretty good reason.
Tonight, I am playing Philadelphia at +3 but no less than +3. If the line drops to +2.5, pass the game.
I rate Philly tonight as a 2 star play which means roughly a 55% chance to cover the number.