So far in 2013, I am having a great year both in the Covers Contest and my personal plays. Looks like the systems that I used in CFB 2012 are also applicable to CBB ( with some modifications of course). As of today, I am 137 wins and 103 losses in the Covers contest which what I will use for reference purposes since this the only way to " document " what picks I have actually made. ( I hate it when all these losers on Covers make claims of capping success and nothing but a few random forum posts to back up their bogus claims).
My strategy basically revolves around a few very simple concepts and I have listed them as follows:
1. Reading the market - trying to discern smart money vs square money
2. To do the above, I have developed some arcane methods to evaluate line movement, consensus betting, smart handicappers consensus, watching money moves as smart books vs square books, and betting volume on specific games.
3. Traditional Handicapping - I concede there are a few ( and I do mean very few) cappers who can beat the CBB game using traditional tools such as trends, stats, history, current form, and many others. I am NOT one of these people. I don't believe the average capper has access to the relevant information that one needs to beat the game on a long term basis. A very few can do it but don't get sucked into playing their picks until you have access to at least two full seasons of their picks AGAINST THE CLOSING LINE.
4. My methods ensure that I will never be blindsided by line maker adjustments to public bias. Since I am never on a public side, I will be getting some degree of line value ( ie positive EV ) on every game.
5. I consider a win pct of 55% to be do-able in CBB when done over at least 200 games. It takes about 200 games to have a large enough sample size and narrow enough confidence intervals to conclude that any capper's results are due to capping skill and not random fluctuations.
I am posting this for those who have inquired about my methods as a result of the posts I have made on specific forums. I will not accept friends requests from tailers and trolls but only those who would like to exchange ideas about beating the books and making money at this game.
Just a few thoughts on the past CFB weekend. The most satisfying game was watching TTU blow out WVU when every square in the USA was on WVU. All I heard all week was what a dumbass I was for taking TTU ( naturally this was from the squares who are everywhere on this board ).
I was surprised at how easily OU romped overrated Texas Shorthorns. For three straight years, the Sooners have bitchslapped the perennially overrated Shorthorns and this year may have been the most dominant of the three. If I were a UTerine, I would be very pissed and demanding the head of Mack Brown. Mack got a 5 year reprieve from those who wanted him fired until Vince Young saved his job in the 2005 season. No more.