Several of you have asked what is my "system". I don't have a "system".
But I do use a unique approach that works for me and seems to have a solid rationale for making selections.
I have included below a sample of a game coming up in September between So Carolina and Vanderbilt. Terms may be new to some of you so PM me if you want to know more.
South Carolina vs Vanderbilt -3.5
LINE MOVE ANALYSIS - 8/14/16 (This analysis is early and incomplete. Much of what you read below is subject to changes in the betting market between today and kickoff)
Line opened Vandy -1.5 and has
gradually moved all the way to Vandy -3.5, crossing the key number of 3.
Sharp Moves vs Square Moves
This appears to be a generally
sharp move since the original consensus on Vandy was only 26% when the line
started to move. Also, general
perception about So Carolina is typically more favorable than Vandy but this is seemingly contradicted by this early move on Vandy
Line moves this early and on teams
as low profile as Vandy would suggest a sharp move is in play here in the early part of the betting cycle on this game.
vs Dog Consensus
The original consensus on So Caro
was 74% which has now moved to 67%. This
is a normal distribution and appears to show moderate but not overwhelming
public support for So Caro, the favorite.
of bets versus Money Wagered)
The number of bets placed are 33%
currently on Vandy but 67% of the money has been placed on Vandy. This is potentially very significant for a
play on Vandy but BVM can wildly volatile and needs to be checked for a final number
about 1 -2 hours before game time. If
this holds steady, it would indicate a play on Vandy.
The Parlay Pct. was highly skewed
toward Vandy early in the cycle at 85% which would indicate a play on So
Carolina. However, the last few days
have seen the Parlay Pct. begin to normalize toward So Carolina. The current reading is Vandy at 57% (aka So
Caro at 43%) which still favors So Carolina.
However, this reading will probably continue to trend toward Vandy. Sample size of numbers of bets is small but
as more bets are placed, this reading will likely finish with Vandy having a
Parlay Percentage in the low 40s’. If not,
this would suggest no play on either side, especially if readings hold at this level.
X File ( Early
vs Late )
When the line was first posted and
in the few weeks that followed, Early X File showed a strong play on So Carolina. X File is a reading that measures the ratio
of Favorite Consensus vs Parlay Pct Consensus.
However, as the line has matured and the number of bets has increased,
this reading is now neutral and no is longer a play on So Carolina.
When Favorites are not the public’s
preferred choice, they tend to win and cover a higher pct of their games. Vandy -3.5 is currently receiving only 33%
of the betting action making Vandy a solid play based on this criteria. One caveat is this is not typically a good
play as a “singleton” criteria. It is
best used when other factors also point to the same side. Thus far, Vandy has a number of other
criteria which support this play.
Consensus in this game is definitely
not frozen but has moved considerably since the game was posted. No play here on either side.
SHARP BOOKS VS SQUARE BOOKS
SSO (Sharp Square Offshore)
Sharp offshore books currently
favor Vandy by approximately 20%. This
is clearly within the margin which SSO would suggest a play on Vandy
Carib, the offshore book, has not
posted their lines yet but I will have this data probably by Sat, Aug 31.
– see Carib Conversion
will not be available until game day.