If any of you have watched the Ariel Helwani interview with Forrest a few days ago at the UFC workout session on Copacabana beach. This is a brief summary of what he said:
"My back was scratched" Basically Dana gave Forrest extra incentive to take the fight.
"How much am I gonna enjoy being @#$% home!"
"I don't enjoy fighting, I do it because it makes me rich"
He also mentioned in the Countdown show that he has a kid on the way a few days after the fight and that Dana White is giving Forrest the UFC private jet to go straight home after the fight. His mind is definitely elsewhere.
In a different interview, I read that Forrest was not enjoying training because he has "plateaued" as a fighter and has not gotten any better. He plans to changed camps after this fight.
We all know the Shogun angle of how he has never lost back to back fights and comes in very motivated after a bad performance. Shogun's a very proud man and will come out to look to take it to Forrest.
IMO Forrest at +200 or higher is STILL not a good bet. There's no value in a bet if he's not going to win. A live dog that won't win.
Shogun is the best bet of the event IMO
GL with your wagers folks and enjoy the fights
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2-0 so far in props today and looking to exploit some matchups and K totals
1. Roy Halladay OVER 6.5 K's
With the Reds' bats tightening up due to the first playoff appearance for many of these players (Bruce, Votto, Gomes). I see Halladay taking advantage of these playoff rookies (he is one himself I know, but Roy has the perfect demeanor for playoff baseball). I see 2-3 K's for Volquez, 1-2 from Bruce, 1 from Phillips, 1 from Votto, and either 1-2 from Gomes (all or nothing player like Carlos Pena). Assuming Roy pitches 8 or 9 innings, he'll get to 8-9 K's
2. Jayson Werth (-140) vs Jay Bruce (+120)
As noted above, Halladay will shut down Jay Bruce, and may get a single or double AT THE BEST. He's not going deep on Halladay and should Strikeout twice.
For Werth, there is always HR potential vs Volquez is his control is off (hanging changeups, can't find the strike zone). Werth usually gets a walk, double, and also a HR is always possible.. this is more of a fade on Jay Bruce than anything.
3. Joey Votto (-120) vs Ryan Howard (+105)
I know Votto will be the MVP, but I see a tight bat from Votto in his first playoff game IN PHILLY!!! I see Votto struggling mightly here today, and Howard gets walked a lot, and always can get a HR or easy singles with that shift Cincy will put on him.
4. 2.5 HR's OVER 2.5 (+198)
If Halladay is prone to one thing.. it's the long ball. There is a posibilty Gomes, Phillips gets one of Halladay.. and Volquez has a tendency to get LIT UP on the road.. I can see Utley, Werth, Howard or even Ruiz getting a HR here. This will be a real small play
BOL everyone, hope these hit!
This game is so difficult to lean to a side, so I researched the K numbers for Lee and Price vs these batters and came up with some real good info
In Lee's 2 starts @ Tampa, he has 10 Strikeouts in both outings
They include:
Sean Rodriguez 4 times in 7 AB's vs Lee
Carlos Pena 2 times in 8 AB's
Shoppach 2 out of 3
Lee has 20 K's in 2 starts at Tbay while racking up 25 in 3 starts total vs Rays this year
David Price
Not a huge sample size vs Rangers, but these batters do tend to K a lot and have come up with these K numbers vs Price
Hamilton 2/6 33%
Cantu 3/6 50%
M Young 2/7 29%
E Andrus 2/6
You get the drift, so the lines are posted at 5.5 K's for both pitchers with high juice to the over. I believe it will be more of the same
David Price OVER 5.5 K's -151
Cliff Lee OVER 5.5 K's -182
all lines posted at Pinny
BOL