Had a rough week in week 3 so I decided to lay off week 4 and figure out what I did wrong . I see a lot of value on the board so far and haven't locked in anything yet. I'm going to post my leans and will post when I lock them in. Would love for some discussions on things I may have missed and things I got right . Sorry for the spacing, I typed it in word and copied and pasted.
USF is averaging almost 10 more points
a game and giving up 3 less points a game against similarly ranked
schedules. USF is better statistically in almost every category. Not
going to list them all but here are a few.
PPP(Points Per Play)
YPP(Yards Per Play)
USF + 3
Pitt may be down after hard fought loss
at home against Notre Dame
USF will be looking for revenge after
losing to Pitt the last three years
USF has a good coach
USF has proven they can win on the road versus
Beat team(Notre Dame) on the road that
Pitt lost to at home
USF is just the better team and they have
bought in to Skip Holtz's system. The knock on this team was always
with B.J. Daniels playing inconsistently. That ship appears to be
corrected. I think this game will be close early with USF capitalizing on
turnovers late and pulling away late.
USF 24 Pitt 13
Had a pretty good week last week going 9-3. I found more games with
more research and it worked really well last week. Here are some early
leans. Will not play all of them but these passed preliminary tests.
Toledo + 13.5 vs. Purdue
Bowling Green + 23.5 vs Michigan
Air Force -11 vs Wyoming
Miami Oh Missouri Under 50
Army + 7 vs Duke
Army Duke Under 63
Stanford -4.5 vs Notre Dame
Temple + 17 vs Penn st.
Idaho -7 vs coloroado st
Nevada -3.5 vs BYU
N.Texas vs. Florida Atlantic Over 51
Miss St. Georgia Under 47
South Carolina + 3 vs Auburn
Baylor + 7.5 vs Rice
LSU vs WVU Over 42
Cal + 7 vs Arizona
Had tough week on predicting winners but luckily my big unit game hit so no biggie. This week has a lot of tough games to cap but I found two.
Carolina -2.5(bought hook) vs Tampa Bay (1U)
New England -2.5 (bought hook) vs New York Jets (1U)
YTD NFL 0-0 3 Unit System
CFB 12-10 (0.5U)
Here's to a good week
Carolina + 6 (1 U)
Dolphins -3 (3U)
Bengals + 5 (1U)
Colts -2.5 (1U)
YTD 8-6 (0U) 3 Unit system
Will post picks for Saturday's game on Friday
Surprised I found value in all four games. Slimmed the write-ups down.
GL to whatever you choose. Let's get started:
Auburn -1.5 vs Miss St
allowed a lot of points to a decent Arkansas State team but they
also put up 56 on a decent Arkansas state team.
St. put up 49 on Memphis but Memphis is a worse team than Arkansas
has one of the best O-lines in CFB, a qb that can beat you with his
feet and arm, a freshman running back Dyer that is playing well, and
a good receiving corp including junior Darvin Adams a 1st Team
All-SEC selection in 2009 and Senior Terrell Zachary.
game will be similar to SMU(Miss
St is much better) USC game. The Bulldogs will be pumped out the
gate but the talent of Auburn will come through.
St. 28 Auburn 38
vs Marshall Under 47
was one of 9 teams who pitched shut-outs last week.
has an above average offense
offense didn't score on offense against Ohio St.
a good sign for Marshall to be completely shut out by Ohio St. even
though they have top talent
scored 30 points or more once last year behind playmaker Noel Devine
who is the focal point again this year.
will focus on running the ball against Marshall seeing that they
gave up 280 yards to Ohio State on the ground
will most likely have a longer time of possession and with them
running the ball more I see a low scoring game that will end fast
WVU 24 Marshall 10