alright we have the pack at the saints, both teams are 5-5. Saints have a nice 3-1 home record with the only blemish coming against my underachieving/underrated Vikes. Packers are 2-3 on the road nothing to write home about but not a bad road record either. But then you see that they only beat the seahawks and the lions when they were on the road...Red flags are popping up u guys.
Im seeing a lot of "If the Saints can keep up with the Packs O" This makes me laugh Brees is having an unbelievable year throwing the ball, In NO he has not been outpassed this year. Im also seeing a lot of packers O should run over the bad Saints D. The fact of the matter is the Saints D only gives up 25 more ypg then the packers, While they Saints O gains over 80 more ypg then the Pack. Home/Away splits it gets even juicier. Saints out gain the pack O by 130 ypg, and the D gives up 14 LESS ypg. As you can see packers on the road are not impressive stat wise. do not beleive the hype.
Adding to the yardage discrepencies, Saints have only been outgained twice, to the redskins and by only 40 to the chargers in the london rain. Pack have been outgained 4 time; 3 blowouts to MN, Dal, TB. and MN again small on opening day... The pack also tied in total yard against Indy, outgained Ten by only 43. I dont see dominance in those performances i see an average NFL team that play Avg on the road. For the Saints I see an Avg NFL team currently who, takes it to whoever at home.
Injuries: Nick Barnett out..this is huge. Reggie Bush is Questionable, which you could assume he'll play, ivenever seen a questionable sit out.
ok so initial lean would be bills just by looking at record, home away, and just impressions of the team. Buffalo has looked a little better passing the ball. On defense bills are ranked 13th giving up 309.2 ypg. The browns are ranked 26th giving up 372.1 ypg. Browns drop a spot to 27th in rush D giving up 145, while the bills rank 13th giving up 103.9 on the ground. Looks like a nice Day for Marshawn Lynch. But then you see Bills are only averaging 90 rush ypg ranking them 28th in the league. Cleveland though not much ranking 22nd running for 101 pyg. so just going by the overall stat advantage particularily in the passing of the bills and overall defensive advantage buffalo has, plus the home field, my initial lean the bills.
However over the last 3 we have had a change to the browns lack of passing by going for 333.3 ypg and averaging 26.7 points i nice step up from the 19 on the year. This would also move them up about 15 teams to the middle of the pack for ypg. Brady Quinn has looked good, but if it weren't for a lot of dropped balls...Kellen....Braylon, Derek Andersen woulda shoulda coulda been passing just as effective as Quinn. This should definitley make us aware that they are a live dog tonight..Over implications. Cleveland is 3-1 on the over on the road this year.
Another thing that i like to point to the over is the whopping 457.7 ypg the Browns defense has been giving up over the last three, while giving up 29.3 ppg. Perfect, let the Bills do their thing on offense, and let the new found Browns O do their thing could it hit 50? im sure it could, 14 in the first maybe Cribbs can take one to the house.. The weather will be about 35-30 thats getting there, but unlike the college games two days ago, its not raining cats and dogs..50% chance of light scattered snow...not hard and not rain. wind is minimal at 4-6 mph... i like this total opening at 43, and i like it even better as it drops to the 40.5 mark...Im taking the browns for the added bonus that three ego-driven players will be making their monday night debuts. I expect Quinn, Braylon, and Kellen to be throwing their best games out their.. Heck The crazy man Kellen might come to the fields in all camoflauge driving a tank. these receivers got the cannon arm they wanted at QB, and now braylon and kellen want that probowl spot derek andersen stole from them a couple back.
browns+5, and over 40.5
alright where are the mad cali peeps... its all good i love cali too. Usc is 3-2 ATS at home. not too dominating for a top ten team. they must be better on the road, oh they are 4-1 psych!!! 2-3 ats ouch.. couldnt cover against stanford, couldnt cover against zona, LOST to oregon st. So they covered against washington st and virginia on opening day. ok ill play the USC fade game. let the lines climb