It's been very long since I've posted on these boards, but I figured I'd document these great games coming up on Sunday.
GB (-3.5) @ CHI (43)
Of all the statistics and trends I've read regarding this game, none other seems to have more weight than: In his last 9 starts, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 22 TD passes and just 2 INTs in 269 pass attempts, with a .729 completion percentage and a 125.0 passer rating. Speaking of passer ratings, in his 5 starts vs. the Packers, Jay Cutler has a passer rating on 65.0. Additionally, Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago. Therefor it's no surprise that I like the favorite in this match-up.
As for the total, I won't side with Joe Public on this one. I'll take the over. In the L5 Packer playoff games, the over has hit 4x. In the L6 Bears playoff games the over has hit 5x. I keep hearing about the weather and the field condition and all that stuff and it only solidifies my feelings more.
PREDITCION: GB 27, CHI 17
NYJ @ PIT (-3.5) 38.5
I like the fact that Mark Sanchez has played relatively well in his couple playoff games. I think there is value on the other side as last week's performance was just the 4th time all year that he has had multiple TD with no INTs, his last was week 4. But one of the most powerful statistics has to be; The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 50 regular season games. I can't believe this line isn't closer to 5 or 6. Which makes me feel like I falling into a SUCKER trap. But I can't take the other side, so I'll take the chalk.
As for the total, I think this game goes over as well. Pittsburgh's young receivers are going to be able to make a significant impact. I think the Steelers can put 24 points on the board. In Pittsburgh's last 5 Conference Championship games, ALL have gone over. In thier last 11 home playoff games, 10 have gone over. In the Jets last 11 road games, 10 have gone over.
PREDICTION: NYJ 17, PIT 24
Good Luck Everyone!
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I
identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one
side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week. From those games,
I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET. Last week was ANOTHER outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 5-4 ATS. This week we are going to do something we only done a few times in the past. There is a total that jumps out in which Joe Public is heavily favoring the over. Perhaps more so than any on the board this week. I'm however going to take the under 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up. This week I'm relying heavily on trends. However there is more to support this play than just trends. That being said....The Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina. The Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite, and 7-1 in Falcons last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Under is 9-0 in Panthers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games as a home underdog, and 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win. Both team have some injuries to key players. The Falcons have given up 397 yards on the ground over the past three games. So don't be shocked to see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams. Michael Turner will also get his fair share carries hopefully meaning the clock will continue to "run" often. Combined these two QB's have thrown for 23 INT this season, more than any other 2 QBs playing each other on Sunday. Additionally, BOTH teams are in the bottom 7 of the league in FG%. Neither team has taken a punt or a kick-off to the house this season. There you have it, UNDER 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up. Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 11's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
""Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Week 8's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET. Last week was tough loss for the SUCKER BET as I was almost guilty of counting my chickens before they hatched. The Dolphins looked like yet another outright win for the SUCKER BET, but ended up on the wrong side bringing our season tally to 3-4 ATS. This week I like the Eagles +1 hosting the New York Giants. The Eagles are playing well at home, which they will need to do because the Giants have won the last 4 ATS in Philly. These teams are not unlike eachother as they their offenses and defenses score and give up a relatively similar amount of points. They have balanced offenses and are well coached. The big difference I see is Turnover Differential as the Eagles are the leaders in the NFL at +11, thanks in large part to their 12 INTs this season. In their last 13 games coming off a division game, the Eagles are 11-2 ATS. Eli is a streaking QB and the Eagles are lucky that he isn't flying high right now. Over the past 2 weeks he has 2 TD passes and 4 INT. Asante Samuel is hoping he can grab a pick this week as the Eagles are 22-2 SU in games when he has an interception. I'm not sure about the status of Brian Westbrook, but I'm going to assume he will not be in the lineup this week, which means LeSean (Shady) McCoy will be the main ball carrier for the Eagles. The underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The line opened with the Eagles being favored by two points. Quick money came in on the Giants and Vegas quickly obliged moving the line the other way. Take this for what it's worth from Whatifsports.com, "The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love. The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5% of the time and by a score of 24-19." The Philly crowd will be excited as they have a long sports day to support their teams with the Phillies hosting the Yankees across the street 4 hours after the Eagles game ends. The Eagles spanked the Giants last year in the playoffs and New York has revenge in thier eyes as they try to snap their 2-game losing streak with the winner taking the lead in the division. Sounds like a lot of pressure to me. Give me the home team getting a point. Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 5's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was another winner for the SUCKER BET as the Jaguars won outright bringing the season tally to 2-2 ATS. This week's SUCKER BET will be no surprise to those who have followed the SUCKER BET for years. Give me the Titans +4 hosting the Colts. Clearly from last week's SUCKET BET I don't subscribe to the "They've got to win one sooner or later" theory. What I do subscribe to is judging how the public reads the line. Vegas opened the line in this game at Colts -1, from there (not surprisingly) it quickly went up to 4 as the public jumped on the favorite. Not me, I like the home dog in a divisional rivalry. Not to mention, the Titans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. On the other hand, the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Am I reading this right the Colts defense is 2nd worst in the league at allowing opponents to convert on 3rd down at a rate of 48%? Obviously Titans backers need to be worried about the Titans not-so-hot pass defense up agaisnt the best QB in the game. That being said Peyton has uncharacteristically thrown 5 picks in his last 3 games in Tennessee. Also within this series, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Often times a lean towards the Under is a lean towards the underdog. In this series, the under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. The Titans rush defense has been pretty strong this season as they are 1 of only 8 teams to allow less the 80 y/g on the ground. Only the Ravens (2.6) have allowed a lower yards/rush attempt than the Titans (2.8). There you have it, Titans +4. Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 6's SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 4's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was another nail biter as the Seahawks lost the cover on a game-ending touchdown. This season all three of the SUCKER BETS looked like strong plays until the closing seconds of the game. However, our season record stands at 1-2 ATS. This week I'll take the Jaguars +3 hosting the Titans. This line opened as a pick'em and the public began heavily supporting the winless Titans driving the lineup to a favorable position for cappers leaning towards the Jags. In the past, home dogs in a divisional rivialry have faired well for the SUCKER BET. Overall, I think there are a lot of people supporting the "Titans have to win one here soon" philosphy. That's not a strong football foundation to wager money on. What is strong is the fact that the Jaguars have the better rated QB. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Conversely, the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC teams, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. An already very weak Titans defense is dinged up and I think Mike Sims-Walker could have a big game. The Jags have some momentum coming off a divisonal win against Houston last week. I'm not a big fan at comparing 2 teams (TEN & JAX) vs. how they performed against the same opponent (HOU), but the Jags went into Houston and beat them, holding them to 24 points. Whereas the Titans hosted the Texans and lost, giving up 31 points. Really these 2 teams are statiscally very close and have similar strengths and weaknesses. There you have it, Jags plus a field goal is this week's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop. Good luck everyone and have a great weekend! See you next week for WEEK 5's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"