Cal +7 and Zona -10 treated me well yesterday, Zaga -6.5 not so much.
Here's what I'm thinking for today:
La Salle(+3) – This line seems odd. Ole Miss has gathered a lot of fans in the past few days, and this most definitely influences the line. Not to mention, they dismantled a Wisconsin team that a lot of experts had going far. On the other hand, if it wasn’t for La Salle having a great first half against Kansas St., they don’t win that game. Yet the Rebels are only 3 point favorites? Seems like Vegas wants you to bet Ole Miss. Take La Salle.
Miami (-7) – I have Miami in my Final Four for a few reasons and I think they beat Illinois on Sunday by DDs. They’re a veteran team, have played together now for years, they defend, rebound very well, and they don’t turn the ball over very much. They blew the doors off Pacific on Friday 78-49. True, Pacific was a 15 seed, but have you seen how some of the other 1 and 2 seeds have fared against the 15s and 16s? Close calls to say the least, and Gtown lost outright to Florida Gulf Coast. Illinois had a 12 minute stretch in the second half on Friday where they didn’t score a field goal. Not good. They also went 8-10 in the Big Ten, which is not very good. I really don’t think they’re any match for the Miami Hurricanes in the round of 32.
More on this and suggestions on minor tweaks to the NCAA Tournament if you're interested at http://3dphillysports.com/2013/03/the-weekender-march-madness-breakdown-suggested-changes-betting/
BOL today guys
What is everyone else playing?
I always love looking at these totals right as they come out.
Which ones do you guys like? My early leans are:
Angels over 92.5
Phillies over 83.5
KC under 77.5
Braves over 87.5
Below are just a few bets like for All-Star Weekend. I'm taking it out of an article I wrote for 3D Philly Sports. I threw out some All-Star Weekend and futures bets for the rest of the weekend if you're interested in giving it a quick read. http://www.3dphillysports.com/2013/02/NBA-All-Star-Weekend-Vegas-Odds.html
In any case, this is what I'm liking for tonight and tomorrow...
Stephen Curry to WIN the 3-point shooting contest: +220
He's nailing almost 45% of his threes and averaging 21 points a game. I never thought he'd be this good at the NBA level. I truly thought he was undersized and wouldn't be able to create enough open shooting space to carry over his game from college to the pros. Yea, I was dead wrong there. Way to go Steph aka Ray Allen Jr.
James White to win the Slam Dunk Contest: +150He's favored for a reason....just check out some of his clips on youtube. The dude can fly.
Carmelo Anthony to win All-Star Game MVP: +1500
He might not be the obvious pick to win the MVP on Sunday night, but with these odds, sh*t, why not bet him? He's going to take a ton of shots, Lebron is going to keep passing the ball to him in flashy ways, and I think Carmelo can drop 28-32 points in the All-Star Game easily. If you think the West wins the game though, then hit Kevin Durant at +350. He's an unstoppable force himself.
Eastern Conference All-Stars +2.5
I always like taking the points and picking the underdog in any sort of All-Star game. These guys are all at the top of their game and playing the best basketball in the world.How can I possibly pick a side? Lebron James also plays on the East squad. Why in the world would I not bet on them then??
What is everyone else playing? BOL
This is just a small part from my full article at 3D Philly Sports, but this is the bottom line of what I'm thinking for today. If you're up for reading the whole thing, free free to check it out at http://www.3dphillysports.com/
The Ravens will have to throw a bunch of different blitz packages at the Niners and hope Kaepernick's inexperience in the NFL rears its head in a big moment. The Ravens defense is extremely skilled and we all know this, but much of the skill at this point comes with playing with one another for years and simple instincts on the defensive side of the ball. Suggs, Reed, and Ray Lewis have seen it all, and have used their expertise to cause fits for Tom Brady and Andrew Luck in these playoffs. They were even able to limit Peyton Manning (something that hadn't been accomplished in about 3 months) and this is what they'll attempt to do with Kaepernick and Gore.
I'm also sure that the Ravens will be taking a look at film of when they went up against similar QBs in the past, such as Dennis Dixon and the Steelers in 2009. They'll be looking at their mistakes no doubt, but they'll also be studying what they did well. This beautiful zone blitz which led to an interception (link on site) in OT and subsequent game-winning field goal is as good as it gets in my book. Ray Lewis comes in hard at the QB, Paul Kruger sells his rush towards Dixon, but then drops back in coverage for an awesome turnover. I'm looking for more of this against Kaepernick tonight.
Joe Flacco, who I mentioned more in my Vegas Update than I did in this column, has looked like nothing less than an elite NFL QB in this postseason. He may end up throwing his first interception of the postseason against San Fran, but his ability to accurately launch the ball 45+ yards down field can be a killer, and absolute game-changer. I'm looking for him to have a big throw in crunch-time to Torrey Smith after John Harbaugh and the Ravens firmly establish the run with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.
Super Bowl XLVII Prediction: 27-20 Ravens
#1 Prop Bet: Will Ray Rice score a TD? YES at +110 payout
#2 Prop Bet: Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams TD? YES at +140
#3 Prop Bet: Ravens Total Points for the game - OVER 22.5
I wrote an entire article about this at 3D Philly Sports if you want to check it out if you have time, but here are my favorite prop bets for Super Sunday....
Colin Kaepernick Total Rushing Yards - Under 55.5 yards (I really think this number is inflated because of his 181 yard outing against Green Bay. He had only 21 rush yards against Atlanta and has broken 56 only three times in ten games this season. Only once in the past six outings.)
Michael Crabtree Total receiving yards? Over 86.5 (If the 49ers win this game I'm leaning towards him being the MVP front-runner. Just a hunch but I think he goes off this Sunday night)
Ray Rice to score a TD? +110 YES. LOVE this one
Feel free to check out the whole article at http://www.3dphillysports.com/2013/01/vegas-update-super-bowl-xlvii-line.html if you'd like. Feedback and comments much appreciated and welcome guys!