I'm 4 and 0 when posting and giving my write up in the playoffs. I'm hitting over 65% for all of my plays combined. I already posted this in another forum, but I thought I would make my own post.
Intersting situation: The Magic are without their biggest weapon. Normally, I wouldn't jump on a team just bc a key player may be out, but this is a different situation for a couple reasons. 1. This is an elimination game in the playoffs for the team that's behind. 2. The magic actually lost two key players, lee and howard.
I've already loaded up huge on the sixers at -4.5 and -6. My book wouldn't let anyone put over 1100 on the sixers until the line got up to 6.5. They didn't want to get muredered with the number down at 5 or even 5.5. I think this is an unusual situation; it's possible that both the public and sharp money could be on the same side. I know that's somewhat ironic, but I've never seen such a situation. The line opened at 4 and is now up to 6.5 at some places.
Without Howard, there will be no deterent from stopping green, miller and iguodala from driving the lane every time and they'll be alotted a ton of second chance points without Howard pulling down every rebound. I expect Philly to get a few of the key magic players in foul trouble early because they're all much more athletic than the magic team. We already know that turkgolu can't guard anyone of those guys off of the dribble so what is going to stop them from driving the lane?
In addition, Philly is always going to get their fast break points; that's a given. If this game gets out of hand, the magic are going to have to start jacking up threes. If they don't shoot much better from three than they've shown in this series, this game could get out of hand really quickly. The magic's defense is so suspect without howard. What in the world is JJ Redick going to do to Andre Miller on the defensive end? The Magic is going to have to jack up threes and you better believe that Philly's D will be up tonight considering it's an elimination game and it's at home. Philly is a sports town and they love the sixers and I expect the place to be banging tonight.
One final thing, if Philly begins to run away with it, the magic may let down a bit considering that they know they're without their biggest weapon and they're going to be going home for game seven and Howard will be back.
Sixers -6 is where it's at now, and I would be all over it. Magic are over-rated and I don't think they stand a chance without Howard!
Fade or play. Comments are welcome and appreciated. I want to know what you think.
GL everyone.